Heading to Austin, the final quarter of the season begins, with three more Sprint weekends still to come. For both Ferrari and Red Bull, the greatest challenge lies in the Sprint format on one of the most technical tracks of the year. The importance is not only in the extra points available but also in the difficulty of finding the optimal setup in just 60 minutes of free practice. Red Bull, which has seemed slow to find its rhythm during weekends, is called upon to make another step forward to keep Max Verstappen’s ambitious championship comeback alive. The same applies to Ferrari, which has struggled in recent weekends to put the troubled SF-25 on track effectively.
Texas variety
Added to the calendar in 2012, the Austin circuit quickly became a favorite among both drivers and fans. The reasons are multiple, including its extremely varied layout that poses both a driving and setup challenge. Immediately after the iconic climb to Turn 1, the track dives into the technical first sector, dominated by a violent sequence of direction changes. The initial succession of sharp, high-speed corners favors Verstappen’s Red Bull, which has generally looked superior to McLaren in these conditions. Towards the end of the sector, however, speeds drop gradually to 150-200 km/h, entering the medium-speed range, which has emerged as a strong point for the papaya cars.
After the long central straight, the third sector changes again, dominated by low-speed areas, except for the triple corners 16-17-18. In total, there are five points on the track where speeds drop below 100 km/h, outlining a circuit with a wide variety of corners, making it very difficult to find a balance without compromises between high and low-speed sections. Achieving this in Austin is considerably harder than in Baku or Singapore, which are more homogeneous tracks in this respect — a context that favors McLaren’s longer “blanket” performance.
Red Bull’s double challenge
Max Verstappen’s mission is to recover more points on Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, knowing that any setback would wipe out the fragile championship hopes revived in September. Red Bull has shown improvement even on non-low-downforce tracks, and after beating the McLarens in Singapore — which on paper should have been favorable territory for the MCL39 — the team has strong reasons to aim to repeat the performance on a smoother track like Austin. However, starting at the front may not be enough for the RB21, which will then have to manage significant tire degradation on a track that offers multiple overtaking opportunities.
Much will also depend on how Pirelli’s attempt to favor two-stop strategies evolves. The Italian company is bringing back the C3 and C4 compounds from last year, but this time the hardest tire will be the C1, skipping the C2 in the hope of making the hard less attractive and encouraging teams to focus on soft and medium. Understanding which compounds to target quickly will be crucial, as teams must plan tire management between the two races and the double qualifying.
All of this must be done in the single practice session, which constitutes another major maturity test for Red Bull. Under Laurent Mekies’ direction, the team has shifted its approach, giving more emphasis to track feedback rather than virtual simulations for setup decisions. In recent events, the RB21 has often reached qualifying at the limit, making leaps from Friday to Saturday based on first-day feedback — a luxury that Austin’s frantic Sprint format will not allow.
Ferrari seeks a reaction
Ferrari is looking to emerge from its crisis on the same track where it celebrated a 1-2 in 2024, also marking Charles Leclerc’s last victory to date. The limits of the SF-25 are well known, but in recent weekends the team has struggled even to maximize the car’s modest potential. On several occasions, track feedback did not match predictions, forcing adjustments to ride heights and requiring setup reversals due to driver dissatisfaction.
To bounce back, the priority for the Scuderia is to arrive in Texas with a solid setup base that allows the SF-25 to perform optimally without losing competitiveness over the weekend. For Ferrari as well, the Sprint is a test that will further spotlight execution, especially regarding how the new tire is exploited in qualifying with limited opportunities to test it. If the team can bring everything together, it could then leverage its strengths on race pace and tire management on a circuit where these factors are more significant than in Baku and Singapore. All this, however, depends on avoiding another brake-cooling miscalculation, which in Marina Bay forced Leclerc and Hamilton into a nightmare Sunday.
Mercedes’ caution
Mercedes comes off George Russell’s surprising win in Singapore, thanks to several factors, including careful track program planning and work on the brake ducts to limit rear tire overheating. The W16 has shown signs of overall improvement, aided by the gradual refinement of setup choices following the summer return to the old rear suspension.
Austin will test the Silver Arrows’ progress, but track engineering head Andrew Shovlin tempers expectations: “The circuits where we did well, particularly where we won this year, like Montreal and Singapore, were relatively low-speed tracks. […] We haven’t had the same competitiveness on circuits with many high-speed sections; that is probably an area where we’ve struggled a bit.” The concern is that the fast initial chicane could expose the W16’s shortcomings in high-speed corners, calling for caution. After all, even in Singapore the odds were against Mercedes, and their victory underscored how much good execution can make a difference, especially in a hectic weekend like the one scheduled in Austin.
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