Pirelli’s decision to shift the tire nominations compared to last year could alter the strategic picture significantly. How? Let’s break it down. In 2024, Austin’s tire selection included the C2 as Hard, C3 as Medium, and C4 as Soft. For this weekend, the Hard will be an even tougher C1, while the Medium and Soft remain as C3 and C4, the same as last year. Twelve months ago, the most common race strategy was Medium-Hard, with Charles Leclerc winning after a 26-lap stint on Medium tires out of a 56-lap race.
It is clear that using the Medium C3 tires would again allow drivers to complete the Sprint Race in the simplest and most competitive way. Drivers must cover 19 laps to complete the mini-race. Yet, while the Medium seems like the logical choice, several factors suggest this Sprint could be very different from usual.
An unusual Sprint: examining the reasons
Let’s consider the main points:
Drivers from Ferrari, Mercedes, Aston Martin, and Red Bull have only one fresh set of Medium C3 tires available. Using it in the Sprint would mean starting the Grand Prix with used Mediums, which is generally undesirable. For tomorrow’s GP, a Medium-Hard strategy would allow a driver to reach the finish comfortably, but the question is whether it would be the most competitive choice. How long can the Soft C4 last? Could a Medium-Soft tactic work? Or would anyone choosing Soft be forced into a two-stop strategy: Medium-Soft-Soft?
These questions open up an intriguing scenario. Last year, Oscar Piastri managed 32 laps on Mediums, nearly two-thirds of the race distance. If a Soft tire allows a driver to sustain the Sprint without losing too much competitiveness at the end, a Medium-Soft strategy could become an option.
The challenge is that using a fresh Soft in the Sprint would mean losing a new set for the main race. So, what could happen?
Those with two sets of Mediums, like the McLaren drivers and Verstappen, could use one today to secure a safe strategy. They also have only four sets of Soft tires remaining, which must all be used in qualifying (one in Q1, one in Q2, and two in Q3 — the basic qualifying strategy).
So, who could realistically use the Softs during the Sprint? Drivers with at least five fresh sets, who must therefore preserve a single set of Mediums for the Grand Prix. Among them are Charles Leclerc, Lewis Hamilton, Yuki Tsunoda, Kimi Antonelli, and Lance Stroll. Typically, drivers who do not reach SQ3 have more Soft sets available to them.
That said, it is difficult to imagine Ferrari risking Softs in the Sprint Race. Given the strong performance of the Medium tire in 2024, Maranello could opt for a used Medium set for the Sprint. This would allow the team to enter qualifying with a fresh Medium set and five fresh Soft sets.
However, we expect that some drivers in the midfield may take the Soft gamble. Antonelli, for example, has six fresh sets and will start from P11, making it an ideal opportunity to test this strategy ahead of the Grand Prix.
The Hard tire, for the same reasoning as the Medium, will likely remain in the garage. Drivers who used one set in free practice are left with only one available, which will serve as a backup for the race. If a Soft test in the Sprint proves successful, the Hard may be ruled out as a viable option tomorrow. Otherwise, the final assessment will be made in pre-GP preparations.
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