Telemetry qualifying data: Ferrari has potential to be in fight for victory

The qualifying session for the 2024 Formula 1 United States Grand Prix brought some surprises but also confirmed several technical aspects that had been largely anticipated during the Sprint. Among the cars that made noticeable setup changes is McLaren’s pole-sitter, Lando Norris.

The Sprint revealed some difficulties for the Woking team in managing tire wear and the overall balance of the car, on a track that is particularly demanding in this regard. The telemetry data shows a significant increase in downforce for qualifying and the race, with a clear attempt to minimize tire degradation during the race. While on some tracks the tire window could be found with low downforce, the 5.513-kilometre Circuit of The Americas doesn’t seem to be one of those, and the result of the new higher downforce setup was evident, with Lando Norris securing an (important) pole position.

The McLaren driver recorded a decent but not exceptional first sector, but from Turn 8 onwards, the different characteristics of the car compared to previous sessions began to emerge. Apart from the metrics, the increased downforce is evident from the better grip in corners, combined with a lower top speed, with a passage at 218 kilometers per hour at Turn 19 practically handing the pole to the British driver. At this point, McLaren, who, we recall, brought a series of updates to the MCL38 car, primarily the front wing, becomes an interesting wildcard for the race: the question is whether the tire management, especially on the front axle, will be better than what we saw in the Sprint.

Red Bull confirms they have regained competitiveness, but the balance is close. Without the yellow flag caused by George Russell’s crash, Max Verstappen would have had more than a chance to replicate his pole position from the Sprint qualifying session. The impression with Red Bull continues to be that of regained competitiveness, although not at the level of the dominance seen in the first part of the 2024 Formula 1 season. The RB20, in Max Verstappen’s hands, remains the best car through the “snake,” with high-speed direction changes being one of its strengths. But its performance is quite similar to rival cars in the rest of the track. Looking at the telemetry data from the qualifying session for the United States Grand Prix, it’s clear that once they finish the so-called “snake” at Turn 9, the cars are almost equal from that point onwards.

Lando Norris edges out Max Verstappen by giving it his all at Turn 19, where the Dutchman also makes a small error. It is very difficult to say for sure who will be stronger between the Dutchman and the British driver ahead of the race: against the Red Bull of a few races ago, we would have favored McLaren, but what we have seen is that the changes made to the car in Milton Keynes are delivering the hoped-for results, especially in terms of aerodynamic stability and the car’s response to driver inputs. The last part of the season will likely be balanced between these two cars fighting for the Formula 1 title.

But Ferrari also has the potential to be in the fight for victory. Looking at the data regarding the Maranello team, we dare to predict an even battle for victory with Lando Norris and Max Verstappen. The second row secured by Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc is a compromise result, as the SF24 car struggles with high-speed direction changes in managing the deformation of the soft tire, but it still leaves the Ferrari drivers close enough to the top positions to take advantage of race pace. Speaking of race pace, which will mostly be on medium and hard tires, the performance and tire management of the two Ferrari cars seemed top-notch in the Sprint race. Even in single-lap performance, the Maranello car performed well, and without George Russell’s yellow flag, Carlos Sainz would have been competing for pole position by a few thousandths of a second with Lando Norris and Max Verstappen, based on what we can gather from the sector times of the final runs which could not be completed by anyone.

So, Ferrari is performing well at the Circuit of the Americas. It’s no coincidence that the teams that made the fewest changes after the Sprint are Ferrari and Red Bull, with both teams and drivers satisfied with their cars. In contrast, McLaren, as mentioned, and Mercedes made the most changes, with the latter still showing a particularly narrow operating window in terms of car characteristics. However, Lewis Hamilton’s disastrous performance, according to the British driver himself, seems to be related to something broken or out of order on his car, while George Russell’s incident shows how much the Brackley team drivers had to push to stay in the top positions. Overall, the team led by Toto Wolff seems to be a step behind the direct competition in the United States.

In conclusion, looking ahead to the Austin race, it seems highly likely that, aside from any squabbles between the two Ferrari drivers, we will see a four-way battle at least in the first phase, Lando Norris, Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz all fighting it out at the top. Once again, tire and temperature management will be key to the outcome, and from a spectacle point of view, everything points to an amazing race.