The Japanese Grand Prix qualifying session has fairly clarified the field’s strength in terms of single-lap pace, with Red Bull leading the way, followed by McLaren and Ferrari struggling behind, grappling with tire warm-up issues and difficulties in high-speed corners. Some of these challenges were expected beforehand, as it was known that Suzuka would expose areas where the SF-24 still needs improvement, while favoring the strengths of both the RB20 and MCL38.
While qualifying has shed light on the field’s strengths, it will be the track that speaks tomorrow during the race, although several elements have already provided some clues. In purely chronological terms, Red Bull didn’t impress, partly due to Verstappen’s style, who, during his long run in FP3, tried to conceal the true potential of the RB20 at certain points by visibly lifting off at 130R or using less aggressive mappings, coupled with the fuel onboard issue.
Ferrari performed well, with Charles Leclerc‘s pace immediately catching attention, pushing the Monegasque driver to approach the race with more confidence. However, climbing up the ranks won’t be easy, especially overtaking on a track with only one DRS zone, and there are still uncertainties that will only find answers tomorrow. In FP3, McLaren didn’t conduct a long run on the same tire compounds as their rivals, mainly because they had only two sets of hards and one set of mediums, deliberately left unused to preserve them for the race. There are also differences in remaining tires among the top teams that could lead to interesting strategic choices.
All three tire compounds are in play with two stops
What has been evident since Friday is that the soft compound, in qualifying mode, offered only one lap before losing peak performance with a rather noticeable thermal degradation. However, for the race, it presents intriguing scenarios because it’s not just the tire wear that’s apparent, but also the performance delta between the different compounds.
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Both Friday and Saturday, as confirmed by Pirelli, the softest compound provided significantly higher grip than the average, which could potentially allow its use for the initial phase of the race. Often teams forego the use of a compound either because it’s too soft, as was the case with the C5 in Australia, or because it’s too hard and struggles to reach optimal temperature.
However, in Japan, potentially all three compounds are viable solutions, provided they are used in a specific phase of the race. While Pirelli hasn’t ruled out a single stop, especially in the event of a well-timed Safety Car, it’s a possibility kept in the background. Last year, one of the few to attempt it was George Russell, with results far from exceptional: this year, temperatures are cooler, but thermal degradation remains significant. Hence, teams have been cautious, keeping three sets between hards and softs, to plan a strategy with two pit stops.
Potentially, some strategies are already marked: Red Bull and Ferrari each have two sets of mediums and one set of hards, while McLaren, Mercedes, and Aston Martin find themselves in the opposite situation, with two sets of hards and only one set of mediums. However, in this discourse, the surprise of the soft compound comes into play, which, despite not offering great durability over long distances, ensures significantly superior performance and additional grip that could prove useful at the start.
The soft compound: an interesting option at the start
The cooler temperatures, nearly 15°C lower than in the past, have reopened the possibility of utilizing the softer compound in the initial phase of the race to attempt something different at the start and try to gain a few positions. Clearly, the additional performance wouldn’t last long, but given the significant performance delta between the various compounds, the possibility of using it in the first ten laps doesn’t seem so remote.
“The soft tire is faster by 1/1.2 seconds per lap compared to the medium. And this means it could be exploited to gain an advantage at the beginning of the race. Of course, the first stint will be shorter, but you can plan a strategy where you do a ten-lap stint on the softs and then do two more stints on the hards,” explained Mario Isola, emphasizing that, likely having to opt for two stops, one could consider using the softer compound at the start with a shorter stint and then manage it.
In general, the degradation of the soft compound is quite pronounced, but according to Pirelli engineers, the performance advantage of the softer compound in terms of the first 5 laps of the race potentially would compensate for the time lost due to wear until the tenth lap. However, the additional grip guaranteed in the first 5 laps would allow for a more aggressive start or first stint, even for those in clean air.
But this combination is not an option for all teams, as Red Bull and Ferrari do not have two sets of hards, so they would have to come up with some other strategic option. Pirelli has also hypothesized this scenario: “If you go for the soft-hard-medium strategy, from our simulations, the second pit stop should come in a window between the 32nd and 37th lap. So, assuming that the soft can last ten laps at the beginning, you would need to do between 20 and 22 with the hard. It should be feasible even without too much tire management for the hard, and then switch to the medium for the final stint.”
For those with two sets of mediums, however, a more aggressive strategy seems possible as well, namely, starting on the softs and then doing two stints with the yellow-banded tire. However, Pirelli keeps this possibility more in the background. Considering that teams are still required to retain certain sets according to the regulations for the race, the fact that most teams have chosen to keep two sets of hards for the race suggests that, according to the Italian manufacturer, the harder compound will be used in at least one of the three stints.
“A soft/medium/medium strategy is possible. We’ll see the characteristics of the circuit tomorrow because there’s still a possibility of light rain in the morning, and if there is light rain, we know the circuit will change. The strategy is feasible. But the fact that there are so many cars with two sets of hards for the race, I believe, is a clear indication that the harder compound will be used. Otherwise, they would have gotten rid of the hards as soon as possible,” explained Mario Isola.
The situation and the limited data available on Friday left Pirelli with the feeling that there isn’t a single path and that there isn’t necessarily one strategy better than the others, which could lead to a particularly interesting race from a tactical perspective.
“It’s difficult to pinpoint the fastest strategy because it depends a lot on the track position and the situation after the start. For me, this is much more interesting because at least tomorrow the teams and their strategic engineers will have some headaches,” Mario Isola added.
Clearly, those who have two sets of hards will have more opportunities to manage the thermal degradation, which again, is particularly high according to what was seen on Friday when the track wasn’t yet at its best. If it rains before the race, the rain could wash away part of the rubber and, consequently, the grip left today by the cars. This is why McLaren, for example, has preferred to keep two sets of the harder compound, to be more flexible in terms of strategy.
Another element is added to this, that of the undercut. Given the performance deltas between the various compounds and the high degradation, the undercut could play a decisive role in the strategies, especially considering that it’s difficult to complete an overtake given the characteristics of the track.
“The undercut is very effective on this track. It’s something we also discussed in the last briefing on the development of the aerodynamic package and the fact that now, unfortunately, we’ve returned to a situation where when you’re following another car, you lose a lot of downforce again, whereas at the beginning of 2022, this loss wasn’t so pronounced,” added the director of Pirelli Motorsport.
“Unfortunately, on this track, due to the fast and flowing nature of the circuit, if you’re in traffic and following another car, you lose a lot of downforce. That’s why the softs at the beginning could be an option to try to gain an advantage and not get stuck in traffic, even if you have a shorter stint in the first part of the race.”
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