F1 Suzuka qualifying report: Carlos Sainz P4, Charles Leclerc P8

This time, Max Verstappen really had to work for the pole position: he secured his fourth pole of the 2024 season at the Japanese GP with a time of 1’28″197, nearly seven-tenths faster than last year. However, Verstappen was closely challenged by Sergio Perez, who, with a perfect lap, came within just 66 milliseconds, convincing many of the merit in extending his contract for another year.

Red Bull easily monopolized the front row in 2024, and while the RB20 is exceptional in single laps, it showed some weaknesses in the long runs, suffering from unexpected understeer. Verstappen notches his 36th career pole but isn’t one to be satisfied with just leading the starting grid.

This is especially true as the two drivers in the second row could be very competitive in the race: Lando Norris secured third place for McLaren with an impressive 1’28″489. The Englishman can craft a lap with his talent, but the MCL36 seems to be improving. This is confirmed by Oscar Piastri, who is sixth, two-tenths behind Lando. The Enstone team could be formidable in the race, even though the “papaya” car wasn’t as consistent in race simulations as the Ferrari.

Therefore, Carlos Sainz could be the real threat to Red Bull. The Spaniard is fourth, nearly a second behind. The Scuderia focused on race performance, possibly at the expense of their qualifying, but the SF-24 seemed the best car in race simulation. Sainz skillfully exploited the potential available to him, while Charles Leclerc was disappointing, only managing eighth with the second Ferrari.

Leclerc is clearly struggling with the SF-24: over half a second behind Max, placing him between the two Mercedes of Lewis Hamilton and George Russell, shows that Charles hasn’t yet mastered driving the Ferrari. Leclerc had to use two sets of soft tires in Q1 to ensure he made the cut, leaving him with just one set for Q3. Wisely, Leclerc made his attempt mid-session to avoid the risk of a red flag.

Ferrari didn’t impress on Saturday, but points are awarded on Sunday: Sainz is aware of a good opportunity tomorrow, while Leclerc’s position is significantly more complicated. Once again, the Monegasque’s race is impacted by his qualifying performance.

Speaking of Lewis Hamilton, who enjoyed finishing ahead of George Russell with a W15 still far behind the leaders. Yuki Tsunoda with Racing Bulls performed his miracle entering Q3 to secure an excellent tenth place, but the real standout was Fernando Alonso. Sometimes controversial for his attitudes, Alonso proves to be a complete champion when driving: the Asturian received the new Aston Martin aerodynamic package only this morning, as the first one was reserved for Lance Stroll.

Alonso took the “green machine” to fifth position, but he was close to attacking the second row, missing Sainz’s Ferrari by just four-thousandths.

Daniel Ricciardo with Racing Bull didn’t make it into Q3: the Australian was just 55 milliseconds slower than the young Japanese, enough to leave him in 11th place, marking a drastic 0-4 deficit against Yuki Tsunoda. Faenza’s car was followed by Nico Hulkenberg, who had his time deleted for exceeding track limits on his first Q2 run. The German, with his last attempt, managed to place 12th with the Haas, achieving the maximum with the VF-24.

Valtteri Bottas finally had a positive qualifying, climbing to 13th place with a lap that showcased his talent on a track like Suzuka, which always excited him, pushing beyond the limits of the Sauber. When he wants, he can still show his claws.

Esteban Ocon is 14th with Williams: the Anglo-Thai did his part by bringing the FW44 into Q2: nothing more could be asked of him with a car struggling in Japan. Esteban Ocon’s performance was also excellent, placing the best Alpine in 15th position: the Q2 achievement is more due to the driver than the car’s improvement. And Enstone should be worried…

The exclusion of Lance Stroll in Q1 was shocking: the Canadian was only 16th with the Aston Martin, which debuted its new aerodynamics in Suzuka, allowing Alonso to… fly. The eight-tenths gap in the first segment compared to his teammate indicates that the Canadian hasn’t found the right feel with the significant update of the green car.

Pierre Gasly is 18th with Alpine: the Frenchman did his best to avoid the last row but struggles to find confidence in the car compared to what Esteban Ocon can do.

Kevin Magnussen with Haas is just twelve-thousandths of a second behind the A524, while Logan Sargeant settles for starting the GP with the Williams, having crashed the chassis in free practice: the American, however, did better than Guanyu Zhou, who couldn’t get the tires of his Sauber to work.