The first European race of the season went more or less as expected. Before the Grand Prix, we were hoping to see a mix of one- and two-stop strategies, and believed Ferrari should take a few more risks by splitting strategies between its drivers to put pressure on rival pit walls. That’s exactly what happened, and in fact, the Maranello wall managed to disrupt a few races. Unfortunately, the VSC triggered by Ocon and then the Safety Car for Antonelli allowed everyone to switch to two stops, effectively cancelling out the efforts of those like Leclerc who had opted for that approach from the start.
The recap
The most common strategy was Medium-Hard-Hard, with pit stops made under both neutralizations. Max Verstappen and Lando Norris (who managed their first stint on the Mediums well, especially Max), along with Albon and Hadjar, all followed this plan. Then we saw a Hard-Medium-Hard for Hamilton, who also capitalized on the neutralizations to make his tyre changes. Finally, Yuki Tsunoda and Hulkenberg completed a one-stop strategy (Hard-Medium), with the pit stop during the VSC. This approach worked decently, with Yuki finishing 10th despite starting from the pit lane.
The rest had strategies negatively impacted by the Safety Cars. Pit stops came just before the neutralizations. Piastri, Leclerc, Russell, Sainz, Gasly, and Lawson ran a two-stop Medium-Hard-Hard strategy, with an early first pit. Colapinto also used M-H-H, pitting just before the Virtual. Aston Martin tried a Medium-Hard-Medium plan, falling into Ferrari’s trap too late and finishing outside the points. Bearman had an odd H-M-H with only two laps on C5 Mediums, while Bortoleto went M-H-H-M and finished last. Antonelli and Ocon retired due to technical issues.
Leclerc haunted by bad luck
In our view, Ferrari made the right decisions at Imola. Splitting strategies made sense, and the timing of Leclerc’s first stop was well-judged. Charles pitted very early, on lap 10, triggering enough chaos to jump from 11th on the grid to ahead of Russell (who started third), Alonso, and Carlos Sainz, eventually closing to within four seconds of Piastri. It would have been interesting to see how this tactic played out, but both the VSC and full Safety Car ruined his plans—twice.
Even though Leclerc had already stopped, Ferrari pitted him again under the VSC to level the playing field with front-runners who were expected to run a one-stop. It was assumed those who had already stopped would now move to two stops under equal conditions. After 29 laps, Charles had used up both available sets of Mediums and Hards. When the Antonelli Safety Car came out, Leclerc asked to switch to the only compound left: a fresh set of C6 Softs. With 17 laps remaining, Ferrari chose not to risk the softer tyre’s durability and kept him out on the Hards fitted at lap 29. This left him vulnerable to Hamilton and Albon, both of whom had fresh C4 Hards.
To make things worse, the track took seven laps to clear, meaning a 10-lap sprint to the finish.
In hindsight, Ferrari could have risked fitting the C6 Softs, but couldn’t have predicted that it would take so long to resume racing. Had the race restarted quickly, the Softs wouldn’t have lasted competitively. So, given the circumstances, Ferrari’s decision was justified.
The others’ races
Verstappen, Norris, Hamilton, and Albon benefited from well-timed Safety Cars. Max used his dominant pace to secure an uncontested win. Norris lacked the pace to challenge. Oscar Piastri, like Charles Leclerc, was penalized by stopping too early. Oscar followed Charles’ approach almost identically and also faded in the final laps, losing out to Norris. A shame about Antonelli’s retirement—he was running a great race and was in P8 ahead of Russell when he had to stop on lap 46.
Russell paid a price for copying Leclerc’s strategy too late, losing many positions. The timing of the two neutralizations did the rest.
The SF-25 is destroying Ferrari
The race pace and tyre management from Leclerc and Hamilton completely overshadowed Saturday’s statements. It made sense to be disappointed after both Ferraris were knocked out in Q2, but claiming the SF-25 lacks potential is just as wrong. If the car truly lacked pace, climbing to P4 and P6 from outside the top 10 would’ve been impossible.
The car seems to be destabilizing the Ferrari environment. Engineers and drivers still haven’t figured out how to optimize the setup to get the best out of the tyres, but the potential is clearly there. The problem is that it only emerges under unpredictable conditions and for reasons that Ferrari’s engineers have yet to fully understand.
Pirelli: more strategy options thanks to softer compounds at Imola
Pirelli’s Motorsport Director, Mario Isola, commented after the race:
“The choice to go one step softer than last year turned out to be the right one. If we look at the first part of the race, we saw how just one surprise move—Leclerc’s early stop—changed the strategic landscape: some tried to stretch the first stint, clearly aiming for a one-stopper, while others were forced to react to the effectiveness of the undercut by Ferrari. The combination of new tyres and clean air helped Leclerc gain many positions.”
“What happened in the second part of the race makes it impossible to know how effective that early stop would’ve been, or whether it would’ve forced two stops. But ultimately, choosing softer tyres opened up more strategic possibilities—both in terms of stop count and stint length,” Isola concluded.
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