The 2025 Hungarian Grand Prix unfolded almost exactly as anticipated. The race featured very few overtakes, with most position changes occurring during pit stop phases. A perfect example of how the strategy played out is Lando Norris, who managed to win the race despite a poor start. The British driver went from fourth on the grid to first place while making only one on-track overtake – on George Russell.
In our pre-race analysis, we had predicted much of what actually happened. We foresaw that Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc would likely struggle to hold off the two McLarens. We also anticipated a scenario where Oscar Piastri, given his superior pace compared to Leclerc, might be instructed over the radio to “do the opposite of the car in front” – which is exactly what happened during Leclerc’s second pit stop.
What we could not foresee, however, were the technical issues that hit Leclerc’s Ferrari SF-25 following his second stop. We had also considered that McLaren might attempt a one-stop strategy, but we didn’t expect that this approach would spread across much of the top ten grid.
Strategy recap
Before diving deeper into what happened to specific drivers, let’s take a look at the overall strategic landscape. As mentioned earlier, the one-stop strategy turned out to be very popular – including for the eventual race winner Lando Norris. Starting the race on the medium compound tyres, Norris pitted on lap 31 to switch to the hard compound and ran that set to the end. He wasn’t alone. Drivers such as Fernando Alonso, Gabriel Bortoleto, Lance Stroll, and Liam Lawson followed a similar plan, extending their first stints on the C4 medium tyre all the way to laps 36–40. Andrea Kimi Antonelli also made the top ten by pitting earlier – on lap 21 – and successfully managing his tyres.
Drivers like Isack Hadjar and Esteban Ocon also used the medium-hard combination, while Lewis Hamilton and Pierre Gasly went the other way around (hard-medium), though this did not yield positive results.
The two-stop medium-hard-hard strategy used by Oscar Piastri, George Russell, and Charles Leclerc delivered solid points but ultimately turned out to be slower than the one-stop approach – something we hadn’t predicted. Max Verstappen, for example, started on mediums and switched twice to hards, finishing ninth – one place lower than his grid position.
Those who opted for an opening stint on soft tyres and switched through all three compounds – such as Carlos Sainz and Alexander Albon – fared even worse. In retrospect, it might have been better to save the soft tyres for the final stint, especially since the track was “green” due to the rain earlier in the day. Things didn’t go any better for Yuki Tsunoda, who chose to use the softest C5 compound during his middle stint.
Nico Hülkenberg made an unusual strategic choice: he started on softs, pitted after just five laps, and completed the race using two sets of mediums. While this strategy didn’t earn him any points, it did allow him to climb from 17th to finish 13th.
Technical issues deny Charles Leclerc a podium – but the race was already slipping away
Focusing now on Charles Leclerc’s race, the Monegasque driver experienced an incredibly frustrating and chaotic final stint. Leclerc showed impressive pace during the first two stints, performing well on both the soft and hard compounds. However, knowing that his strategy involved two stops, he had already accepted that victory over Norris was unlikely.
Unfortunately, after his second pit stop, Leclerc’s SF-25 developed a technical problem. During this third stint, he went from being in contention for the win to finishing in fourth place, over 40 seconds behind Norris. To make matters worse, five of those seconds came from a penalty received for his defensive move against Oscar Piastri – although the penalty alone does not explain the drop in performance.
These difficulties led to noticeable tension inside the Ferrari garage. The strain was also evident in the post-race interviews: Team Principal Frédéric Vasseur cited an issue with tyre pressure (as reported by Sky Sports), while Leclerc spoke of irregularities with the chassis. Later, Ferrari aligned both narratives in their official press release, confirming there was a chassis-related issue affecting Charles’s car.
Charles Leclerc delivered a standout performance in his first two stints, but even without the technical problems in the final phase, he would have struggled to hold off Oscar Piastri in the closing laps. Lando Norris was simply untouchable, and Piastri displayed strong pace on hard tyres in the final run. While Leclerc’s disappointment is understandable, the technical issue likely cost him only one position. Starting from pole position and finishing fourth is painful, but given McLaren’s current form, it was always going to be an uphill battle.
Hamilton, meanwhile, fared even worse, finishing in 12th place – a result largely dictated by his poor qualifying performance the day before.
Oscar Piastri let down by McLaren’s conservative strategy
While Leclerc was brought down by car issues, Oscar Piastri saw his podium hopes affected by his team’s strategy call. In the final laps, Piastri made his frustration known over the team radio, clearly unhappy with McLaren’s decision to call him in for a second pit stop. That stop prevented him from challenging teammate Lando Norris for the win.
Oscar Piastri had switched from mediums to hards on lap 18. It would have been entirely possible for him to complete the race with just one stop, as he would have only needed to extend his final stint by three more laps than what Andrea Kimi Antonelli managed on the same compound (Antonelli completed a 48-lap stint on hards).
McLaren has proven to be one of the best teams on the grid for tyre management, so it’s not unreasonable to think Piastri could have made it to the end. However, the team opted to play it safe – possibly considering the implications for the championship standings. Piastri, currently leading the drivers’ championship, would likely have preferred the chance to go for the win. While second place is still a strong result, it feels like a missed opportunity for the Australian driver.
After the summer break, Piastri will look to bounce back, beginning with the Dutch Grand Prix scheduled for the final weekend of August.
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