Singapore: Ferrari suffers a thermal disaster, Norris and McLaren are in another league. The expected battle between McLaren and Ferrari in Singapore qualifying did not take place.

Red disappointment
The Singapore Grand Prix qualifying certainly brought more than one surprise, though not for pole position. The expected battle between McLaren and Ferrari did not take place due to the latter’s shocking debacle, and Lando Norris secured pole quite comfortably, as even a conservative and largely imperfect lap, according to Norris himself, was enough.

His teammate, Oscar Piastri, missed out on the front row at the penultimate corner due to a bad oversteer, but this highlights McLaren’s dominance in this final phase of the season. Norris will have a major opportunity for victory in the race, considering how difficult it is to overtake on this track. The Woking car has shown a perfect balance of characteristics. According to the data, it may not have the highest downforce but is the most balanced between aerodynamics and mechanics.

Stiff enough for excellent performance in medium-speed corners, yet soft enough to attack curbs without problems in the slower sections, and efficient on the straights, partly thanks to its slightly lower aerodynamic load compared to its main competitor, which, surprisingly, turned out to be Red Bull with Max Verstappen. The Milton Keynes team revolutionized the car overnight from Friday to Saturday, shifting the entire compromise from mechanical grip to aerodynamic downforce. The RB20 hit the track with stiffer suspensions and more aerodynamic load, which, while not the ideal theoretical setup for this circuit, ended up working very well. Of course, this increased the difficulties for Sergio Perez, but Verstappen, with his talent, managed to exploit the car’s potential much better, leading to a sensational front-row result considering the free practice sessions. The Dutchman stayed just over a tenth behind Norris in the first two sectors, but struggled more in the final third of the lap, doubling the gap. He lost around one-tenth to Norris already at turn 14 and another 50 milliseconds in the 16-17 chicane, confirming difficulties in handling curbs and areas where mechanical grip is crucial. Nevertheless, his second-place finish is far more than satisfactory, especially in the championship context, where another poor weekend in a race where Norris seems poised to win could have posed a serious threat to the standings.

Mercedes hits the window and suddenly awakens
In a completely unexpected turn of events, Lewis Hamilton secured third place, first with a great lap, something he has often shown he can do at Marina Bay, and with a W15 that found, almost miraculously, the sweet spot when it mattered most. The data shows that the Brackley car has the lowest aerodynamic load of the top three teams, noticeable on many of the track’s longer straights, but it must have found the right window for aerodynamics and tires just in time, an effect that, as we’ve said many times, can significantly boost performance. Hamilton’s only real struggle appeared in the middle sector, especially in the slow section from turn 10 to turn 13, where the seven-time world champion lost three and a half tenths to Norris, compared to just 80 milliseconds across the rest of the lap. Top speed and quick acceleration compensated for his cornering weaknesses, and once again, the British champion masterfully extracted the most from the situation.

Ferrari can only be described as disastrous

The biggest disappointment of Singapore Saturday, without question, was Ferrari. After a strong Friday and even after Q1 and Q2, while pole position seemed a one-man affair for Norris, the first two rows appeared well within reach for the SF24. But many things went wrong at the crucial moment. First, of course, Carlos Sainz’s crash immediately relegated the number 55 car to tenth place. Looking at the data, we saw that Sainz let Oscar Piastri pass during his lap and accelerated right after. The combination of Piastri’s turbulent wake, suboptimal tire temperature, and a driver error led to a total loss of control, with significant pendulum effect before hitting the barriers.

Charles Leclerc’s situation was different; he had appeared much more on form than Carlos Sainz throughout qualifying and could have secured a front-row spot with his Q2 time. However, his final attempt was disastrous from the start, with a track limit violation at turn 2 that invalidated his lap, which was already slow enough to place him in seventh, behind even Nico Hulkenberg. In post-session interviews, Charles Leclerc explained that something went wrong in the garage, with the front tire blankets keeping the tires 10 degrees cooler than optimal.

Upon leaving the pits, Charles Leclerc had to slow down significantly behind Fernando Alonso, further cooling the tires. At that point, his preparation lap was compromised, and despite having both space and time (no drivers behind and crossing the line with over 20 seconds to spare before the checkered flag), he couldn’t bring the tires back to the correct temperature range. This left him with completely compromised front-end grip, so much so that he couldn’t stop the car or make it into the first corner, triggering the track limit violation.

In such an important qualifying session, a team error with the tire blankets is unacceptable for a team like Ferrari, making Charles Leclerc’s frustration understandable. Meanwhile, tire management has become such a significant factor that it deserves attention from Formula 1 itself, as it continues to be the most decisive element in car performance, more than engine power or aerodynamic load, and more than a new front wing, which had shown a markedly positive impact on the SF24’s aerodynamics. We’ll discuss this more during the upcoming “autumn break.” For the race, all predictions favor Lando Norris. Max Verstappen will likely assess his car’s true potential early on to see if he has any real chance of winning. If so, he’ll try to fight; otherwise, we can expect him to manage the race to maintain second place. However, in Singapore, rain, accidents, and Safety Cars are always lurking, ready to shake up the standings—and that’s what Ferrari will hope to rely on in what currently seems like an impossible comeback.