Formula 1 heads into the tenth round of the 2026 season this weekend, and for the first time this year, rain could play a major role. Every session so far has taken place in dry conditions, but that streak may finally come to an end at Spa-Francorchamps, where the latest weather forecasts suggest teams and drivers should be prepared for rapidly changing conditions throughout the weekend.
As early as Friday, thunderstorms and heavy showers could hit the legendary Belgian circuit, often referred to as the “university of motorsport” because of its demanding layout and unpredictable weather.
Rain threatens Friday at Spa-Francorchamps
According to Meteo-France, Friday is expected to begin with temperatures ranging between 15°C and 25°C. However, the main concern is not the heat but the increasing likelihood of rain during the afternoon, when heavy showers could sweep across the Ardennes circuit.
Wind conditions should remain relatively calm on Friday, with gusts expected to stay around 10 km/h, limiting their impact on car performance.
Saturday expected to improve before a challenging race day
Saturday’s forecast is considerably more encouraging, with sunshine and scattered clouds replacing Friday’s rain threat during the morning. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, with lows of around 14°C, while stronger winds of up to 20 km/h could begin to influence the balance and handling of the Formula 1 cars.
Race day, however, is expected to be the coldest of the entire weekend. Temperatures should range between a minimum of 11°C and a maximum of 20°C, but the biggest uncertainty will be the wind. Gusts exceeding 40 km/h are forecast during the Grand Prix, creating an additional challenge for drivers as they tackle one of the fastest and most demanding circuits on the calendar.
It remains to be seen whether the forecast will prove accurate. Should rain arrive, teams and drivers would face a completely new scenario this season, discovering for the first time how the new-generation Formula 1 cars perform in wet conditions while adapting their setups and race strategies to an ever-changing track.
How Low Grip Conditions affect active aerodynamics
If the Race Director declares Low Grip Conditions, a status that can be introduced at any point during a session, the cars’ active aerodynamic systems are partially restricted. Under these circumstances, only limited activation of the front wing is permitted within the designated Low Grip Activation Zones defined by the FIA.
The FIA communicates both the activation zones and the operating procedures to the teams. Full aerodynamic activation can only be restored when race control considers conditions safe enough, while in qualifying this is only permitted if fewer than five minutes remain before the end of the session.
Boost and ERS restrictions in wet conditions
When Low Grip Conditions are in effect, the use of the Boost overtaking mode is either restricted or completely disabled. The objective is to reduce the amount of torque delivered to the rear wheels, helping drivers maintain better control of the car on a wet surface.
To further improve drivability in slippery conditions, the FIA also has the authority to reduce the maximum ERS deployment available in wet mode, giving drivers a more predictable power delivery while minimising the risk of wheelspin and loss of control.
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