The 2025 Hungarian Grand Prix is once again shaping up to be an unpredictable event, where race strategies are expected to play a crucial role in determining the final outcome.
Will the race be decided by a one-stop or two-stop approach? Which teams are in the best position when it comes to available tyre compounds? And how might the rain that fell on Sunday morning influence tyre choices and overall tactics? Let’s examine all these variables that could shape the outcome of the Hungarian Grand Prix.
Before evaluating the possible race strategy scenarios in detail, it is worth reviewing the key comments made by Mario Isola, Pirelli’s Motorsport Director, after Saturday’s qualifying session. His insights provide useful context for interpreting tyre data and predicting team decisions ahead of the race.
“In case of a dry race, the fastest strategy is clearly the two-stop option using mainly the hard compound in combination with the medium,” explained Mario Isola.
He also added: “The one-stop approach using a combination of medium and hard tyres could be chosen by those starting in the midfield, who will aim to extend their stints and manage thermal degradation, especially if temperatures remain significantly lower than those seen yesterday and earlier today.”
This is particularly relevant for drivers such as Lewis Hamilton and Kimi Antonelli, who are expected to attempt a comeback through the field.
Among the possible two-stop strategies, Isola also mentioned the scenario involving the use of all three tyre compounds. This would mean starting the race on soft tyres to try and gain positions in the early laps, then exploiting clear track during the first pit stop. On a track like the Hungaroring, where overtaking opportunities are limited, this tactic could be effective.
“The soft compound may help at the start, while the undercut is very powerful on this circuit due to how difficult it is to pass,” noted Isola.
He concluded by highlighting the impact of Sunday morning’s rain: “The rain this morning effectively reset the track surface, which could create unpredictable circumstances.” Isola also recalled how the wet conditions influenced the Formula 3 race earlier in the day, which ended with the crowning of a new champion.
Two-stop strategies: possible race scenarios
Although it is not shown in the official graphics, the winning strategy at the 2024 Hungarian Grand Prix was medium > hard > medium. However, this season the most likely optimal strategy could be different. Only the two Kick Sauber drivers are in a position to replicate last year’s approach, as they are the only ones with two available sets of medium tyres.
On the other hand, McLaren, Ferrari, Mercedes, Alpine and Max Verstappen each have two sets of the hard compound available. Compared to last year, the performance gap between the medium and hard tyres is smaller, and degradation levels are similar. This could explain why these five teams are expected to adopt a strategy such as medium > hard > hard.
Given the durability of the hard compound, it is also possible that some drivers may decide to start the race on the soft tyres, gain early track position, and then extend the two stints on the hard compound.
While Kick Sauber has two sets of medium tyres and the likes of McLaren, Ferrari, Mercedes, Alpine and Max Verstappen have two sets of hards, several other teams find themselves with more restricted options. These include Aston Martin, Racing Bulls, Haas, Williams and Red Bull driver Yuki Tsunoda. These teams do not have two sets of any single compound—only one set of medium, one set of hard, and softs that were used in qualifying.
As a result, their strategic possibilities are limited: they may either opt for a two-stop strategy using all three compounds, or attempt a one-stop strategy with a higher risk of tyre degradation.
Leave a Reply