Understanding exactly how the 2026 cars will perform is perhaps the most difficult task for the FIA and the teams, with constantly updated simulations. Among those most interested in these estimates is certainly Pirelli, eager to know the expected loads and speeds in order to develop an appropriate tire range.
The Italian website FormulaPassion had the opportunity to explore this topic with Mario Isola, Pirelli Motorsport Director.
For Pirelli, one of the most important parameters to understand for developing the new tires is the aerodynamic load that the 2026 cars will generate in corners with wings closed. “The loads will decrease,” Mario Isola revealed, albeit cautiously. “I avoid giving a number, because we have seen roughly 20% less, but I don’t fully believe it. Generally, everyone expects lower loads, but we don’t have definitive data.” Pirelli’s considerations are based on simulations sent by the teams at the end of June, but since then the teams have continued development, refining their estimates using updated tire models. The Milan-based company is in constant contact with the teams, but it will not receive the latest data before December.
Next year, however, Pirelli is monitoring more than just load estimates. “What matters most to us is understanding the expected maximum speeds, which will probably be higher, but with lower load compared to now,” Isola explained. “In the end, it’s always a matter of the combination of speed and load, because if you have an extremely fast car with high load, it stresses the tires a lot. [In 2026] the [straight-line] speeds will indeed be higher, but we expect them with lower loads. In corners, however, we will probably see lap speeds and loads comparable to those of current cars.”
In the development process, Pirelli first focused on constructions, defined at the beginning of September and featuring some innovations. “Once we understood the expected loads and speeds with the 2026 cars, we worked as usual to find constructions that were light but durable, in order to maintain pressures in line with current levels. This is because, when reducing the size of the tire, to maintain the same load capacity you need to increase the pressure. We tried to work with some new materials and concepts to keep pressures similar, despite the smaller tire sizes and the fact that the loads aren’t drastically different from current ones.”
The issue of pressure management arises from the request to develop tires 25 mm narrower at the front and 30 mm narrower at the rear, with an external diameter about ten millimeters smaller. Achieving this target was not simple, forcing Pirelli to iterate multiple times before reaching the final product. “The construction underwent several changes, partly due to updates on expected performance, partly because we were developing new materials. Some of these entered the 2026 specification, others did not. This also contributed to working on different concepts.”
“The reason I wanted us to work on six compounds is because we would like to homologate the same number next year, as we do this season, spacing them as much as possible,” Isola continued. “This way, if we realize we are too skewed to one side or the other, we can adjust the selection of compounds for each race. Then, of course, we will collect the information we need to develop the product we require.” Initial feedback is encouraging: “On the compounds, we have interesting data that show at least four specifications already reasonably aligned in terms of lap time differences. We need to adjust the degradation levels based on the target letter, which specifies a certain gap between compounds and certain degradation.”
Attention is also paid to the width of the operating window. “We continue to try to develop compounds that can widen the flat part of the grip curve as much as possible, to make the tires easier to use. However, the operating window is also influenced by the cars, and here there is uncertainty about how they will behave next year. The mules have given us some indications, but certainly not complete ones.”
Overall, facing the largest regulatory change of the last thirty years has proven extremely challenging for Pirelli. “It has been more difficult than other major changes we have experienced. While developing the 2026 product, the regulations were continuously being discussed and refined. We did not have a full year to develop under frozen rules.”
The current situation is very different from the 2022 revolution, when the Italian company had more time to work on a regulation already defined after its postponement by one year. “When we arrived with 18-inch wheels, the regulation had already been defined, so we had a base to work from. Of course, there were always simulation cycles with the teams that gradually improved. But the regulation was fixed, whereas this year it has been modified, and what we can expect from the cars has changed somewhat,” Mario Isola concluded.
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