The weather forecast remains uncertain ahead of the race. The latest projections estimate short bursts of rain until 12:00 local time, which would give the track two hours to dry. The chance of rain during the Grand Prix window has dropped to 40%, making it possible the race could be held entirely in dry conditions. Unlike in previous years, simulations indicate that a one-stop strategy will be the most effective, though that doesn’t mean there won’t be on-track action, especially considering the McLaren cars are not starting from the front. Simone Berra, Chief Engineer at Pirelli, outlines the options available to the front-runners.
Towards a One-Stop Race
Berra has no doubts about the strategic theme of the weekend: “The key point is the lower degradation compared to what we expected. The race pace simulations in FP1, and some also in FP3, showed a very consistent hard tyre with almost no degradation. The medium is solid but still requires some management. In FP1, the soft tyre also managed to complete several consecutive laps competitively, so we have three compounds in play. Obviously, we expect the hard and medium to be the most used in the race.”
The strategic picture is shaping up differently from past editions: “If it’s dry, we expect a one-stop race, with a significant time advantage over the two-stop strategies seen in past years. We know this is a track where thermal degradation is high, but probably the new compounds, new asphalt, and the lower temperatures seen in recent days have helped reduce wear. Compared to the initial idea of a two-stop, based on the data we’ve collected, on paper a single stop now appears to be the fastest strategy.”
The Options on the Table
Pirelli’s primary suggestion is starting on the mediums and switching to hards between laps 19 and 25. An alternative is to start on softs to benefit from the extra grip off the line, though this comes with higher thermal degradation. In that case, an early stop would be required between laps 10 and 16, followed by 40 laps on the hard tyre—a demanding task in terms of tyre management.
“At the moment, two-stop strategies are slightly slower on paper,” Berra explains. “Right now, it’s hard to consider a two-stop because everyone has returned a set of hard tyres, except for Lando Norris, who is the only one that could realistically go for that strategy. The others only have one set of hards and most only have one set of mediums. This means that if they wanted to go for two stops, they’d have to use all three compounds, in the order soft-medium-hard, which on paper is still only the third-fastest strategy. In that case, the first stop would come between laps 8 and 14, with a second stop around laps 28–34.”
Max Verstappen’s Advantage
Even though the single stop appears to be the best option on paper, it’s not unrealistic to think McLaren might try something different if they can’t get ahead of Verstappen, given how difficult overtaking is at Suzuka. However, Norris, the first chaser on the grid, only has one set of medium tyres compared to two for his rivals, who could implement Pirelli’s fourth suggested strategy: medium-hard-medium. This represents an advantage for Verstappen, whose extra set of mediums is more valuable than Norris’s additional set of hards.
Berra reflects on the short race simulations from FP3: “Verstappen ran on the hard, which is very consistent but offers less grip. On the other hand, Antonelli did a stint on the medium, which had slightly higher degradation than the hard, but he consistently lapped faster than Max Verstappen. This showed us that the hard is more consistent, but over a 20–25 lap stint it may yield slightly slower average times. Holding on to two sets of C1s (hard) doesn’t seem beneficial, especially considering that the C2 (medium) worked very well in China.”
Another factor to consider is the likely washout of the track due to expected overnight rain. The loss of rubber usually increases the risk of graining, but Berra doesn’t appear worried: “There’s a bit of a graining risk, but we’ve only really seen it in a few isolated cases. I’d say it’s very situational and more related to specific teams and setup choices rather than a general tyre issue.” On Friday’s simulations, Norris himself complained about graining, a phenomenon to which McLaren is particularly sensitive. Ferrari hopes to take advantage of this, also aware that on paper Red Bull is less competitive in the race than in qualifying—at least in dry conditions.
Much will depend on how drivers manage the opening snake section. “The first sector is key,” Berra warns. “That’s where the new asphalt is, which has challenged the drivers because they’ve had to find the right grip balance between the old, very rough surface and the new, very smooth one with high adhesive grip. In that sector, drivers not only manage thermal degradation better but also graining, which tends to appear more on circuits with new, smooth asphalt. The first sector will be crucial.”
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