Performance analysis: all the problems of the Ferrari SF-25 in F1 Japanese GP qualifying

The Ferrari SF-25 falters once again in qualifying. In Formula 1, nailing the perfect setup isn’t easy, and today the Prancing Horse failed to do so once more. There is always something missing, something the Maranello team can’t quite put together for Q3. Today, the margins were extremely tight. From a handling point of view, we saw a slightly altered balance compared to yesterday.

So let’s take a detailed look at the setup of the Italian car in the qualifying session for the Japanese Grand Prix. The Ferrari engineers and technicians opted to move the overall balance of the SF-25 car forward, trying to fix the lack of rotation observed yesterday during the two free practice session at the Suzuka circuit. Generally speaking, the team carried out fine-tuning work to improve grip generation in the second and third sectors, slightly compromising the first section. There was some improvement, but ultimately the stopwatch did not reward Ferrari.

After all, on this track, we expected two cars to emerge: McLaren and Red Bull. The battle for pole position was going to be between them, and that is exactly what happened. However, we can identify a few key areas where the SF-25 struggled more today. In the snake section, they took a step back to gain some ground in the other two sectors. In turns 6 and 7, they showed less agility in direction changes compared to Friday.

Up to that point, Charles Leclerc’s lap was good. Virtually, he was even ahead of Max Verstappen, but it was right in this part of the first sector that he started to lose time. Another critical spot was the section between turn 9 and turn 11. Turn 9 is very fast and requires a lot of precision. In that section, we saw some understeer at mid-corner, which prevented the Monegasque driver from attacking the inside kerb to cut the line the way the McLaren MCL39 did.

This lack of rotation then turned into oversteer on corner exit. Both Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc experienced this kind of behavior on track, struggling quite a bit with handling. It was up to their talent to nail the entry without losing the rear on the way out. It should be noted that a slight oversteer is almost natural in that corner. Even McLaren had a slight excess of rotation on exit.

At the exit of the hairpin as well, Ferrari’s drivers showed too much rotation. Just in turn 11, car number 16 of the SF-25 lost about a tenth and a half. Yesterday, we mentioned a significant step forward was needed in turns 13 and 14, where both Ferrari SF-25 cars were losing as much as three tenths in just a few meters. Today, the situation improved noticeably, with Charles Leclerc managing to maintain a consistent gap during the cornering phase.

Let’s now focus on the difference in racing lines between the SF-25 and the MCL39. Watching the onboard footage, we notice the difference in corner performance between Ferrari and the two McLaren cars, which we use as a reference. The MCL39 single-seaters were able to use part of both inside kerbs, while both Ferrari drivers could only brush against them at best. Additionally, Charles Leclerc suffered from instability in this section, which further caused him to miss the apex.

On the other hand, McLaren also failed to optimize qualifying despite the fastest car overall. Lando Norris, despite delivering an almost perfect first sector, had to give in to Max Verstappen’s outstanding performance. The Dutchman was exceptional today, and we can actually explain why. Let’s start by saying that McLaren had indeed expected Red Bull to be quite close.

The RB21 appeared to be well balanced, with a very strong front end that decided pole position. It also showed a rear that today was even more stable than that of the MCL39. Yesterday, the four-time Formula 1 world champion had not shone at all, but we had pointed out how the Austrian team could extract more potential in certain areas and how there were limits in others that needed to be addressed. The overnight simulator work was very effective.

Red Bull unlocked performance in sector two to bring out the untapped potential of the RB21. They made a solid step forward in the first sector too. As we have said before, the blue racing car has the highest level of aerodynamic load coming from the floor. During Q1, Max Verstappen complained about front-end activation, suffering from understeer in the first sector of the Japanese track.

In sector two and up to the final chicane, Lando Norris’s MCL39 had a slight advantage. Max Verstappen stayed close throughout the lap, but at the final braking zone, he gained a lot. All of this while keeping in mind that, through this change of direction, both McLaren and Ferrari did better, managing to use much more of the kerb, based on the telemetry data collected from qualifying session.

Overall, we can certainly say that Ferrari partially limited the damage with the Monegasque driver. The McLarens and Max Verstappen’s Red Bull are very well suited to this track due to the way they build their setups. Doing more wasn’t possible with this type of setup and the current package available to the Italian side. Development is awaited to change this trend in the upcoming races.

Rationally speaking, Ferrari’s real battle was with Mercedes, which builds its setup in a way more similar to the SF-25. Red Bull, thanks mainly to Max Verstappen, found that famous window where the RB21 flies and has an almost perfect balance. Just below or above that range, performance drops, especially considering how close the leading group is.