There is a basic sense of regret accompanying Ferrari’s analysis of Suzuka’s qualifying. Leclerc and Verstappen qualified “together,” always in line with their times, until Max pulled out a spectacular lap. Does this mean that Ferrari had the potential to take pole position at the Japanese Grand Prix?
Missing the Max-like moment, but…
The answer is no because, when reviewing the best sector times, it becomes clear that McLaren was the car to beat. However, there’s disappointment at not finding the final spark, which, more than a spark, would be better described as “magic,” the kind that Max Verstappen managed to produce, but no one else on Suzuka’s Saturday. Among the “humans,” Charles Leclerc did the best he could, while the discussion on Lewis Hamilton tilts to the negative side: even between Q1 and Q2, he was in line with Leclerc’s times, but in the decisive phase of qualifying, he couldn’t find the right references, resulting in a disappointing 8th place, four positions behind Charles Leclerc. While Charles maximized the car’s potential, Lewis did not, and he’ll try to recover in the race.
Understeer for the SF-25
This isn’t a matter of drivers, obviously, because today Ferrari must focus on the car. On a track like Suzuka, which tests a car’s fundamentals, it’s clear that the SF-25 needs to catch up to McLaren. One common issue between both drivers on Suzuka’s Saturday was understeer, which they complained about throughout the weekend, with adjustments made to the front wing continuing even in qualifying. This indicates that the SF-25 is highly sensitive in terms of balance, requiring fine-tuning not only between sessions but also during a session, with the slightest change in temperature or wind.
The ideal lap missed
“We didn’t put everything together in Q3, we did better in Q1 and Q2,” said Frederic Vasseur in his interview with Sky. The team principal emphasized that the Ferraris struggled in Q3, which reflects the earlier points. Neither driver found the ideal lap in Q3: Charles Leclerc lost 12 hundredths compared to the ideal lap, while Hamilton lost almost double (around two and a half tenths), and while Charles would still have finished in fourth, Lewis had the potential to finish at least sixth, which would have placed him one full row ahead. On a track like Suzuka, where overtaking is difficult, every position counts. Leclerc primarily lost time at the last chicane (“but it wouldn’t have changed anything, we would have still been P4,” Frederic Vasseur clarified), while Hamilton could have done more throughout the lap, though even for him, the third sector needs reviewing.
Race Prospects: Between Hope and Opportunity
The qualifying result is, of course, disappointing, but only to a certain extent. Charles Leclerc said, “We knew we couldn’t perform a miracle,” but also added, “Today is still a step forward compared to yesterday,” offering a glimmer of optimism. Hamilton also made an interesting comment: “Charles’ setup direction is better for qualifying, I hope mine will pay off in the race.” Regarding setup, Lewis confirmed what was already suspected: “We’re running higher than we’d like.”
So, it seems that the two SF-25s have made slightly different setup choices. In the race, under normal conditions, the goals are clear: Charles Leclerc will try to defend at least fourth place, and Hamilton will aim to recover and battle with the Mercedes, provided the W16s are within reach of the Ferraris. In a weekend where race pace simulations have been few, it’s reasonable to keep a big question mark over the power balance we’ll see on Sunday, especially with such uncertain weather: if it rains during the race, the race could take on unpredictable characteristics. Even if it rains overnight and dries in time for the race, it would give teams and drivers a very different surface to deal with compared to what they’ve faced so far.
So, eyes open for the race: if there are opportunities, Ferrari will be obligated to seize them.
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