Saturday at the 5.793-kilometre Autodromo Nazionale Monza concluded with a great battle in the qualifying session for the Italian Grand Prix, with minimal gaps and close competition up to the last moment as expected, although in the end, the standings reveal some important insights into the overall balance between the teams.
The team that dominates, albeit with just a tenth of a second advantage over the competition, is McLaren, which secures the front row with Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri and impresses with its overall performance. After showing a clear performance advantage at the Zandvoort circuit in a maximum downforce configuration, a papaya front row at the track that requires the least downforce of the 2024 Formula 1 season gives an idea of how the MCL38 is currently the best car overall at this point in the championship.
The data from Monza’s qualifying lap is still very clear, and for this reason, let’s analyze it and look at some of the key factors that led to final result.
Of the many telemetries we analyze throughout the year, that of the Monza circuit is certainly one of the simplest, given the few curves and the “one-way” nature towards low downforce of the circuit. The first two things that stand out are how Ferrari has chosen an unloaded setup, and on the other hand, how McLaren has slightly more downforce than its rivals. Starting from the latter, we notice how Lando Norris dominates the entire central sector, from the Roggia chicane, through the two Lesmo corners, and arriving at the Serraglio, showing all the indicators of greater downforce. In the end, once the drivers found a balance they liked during the second practice session, the overall downforce level at McLaren was not lowered, even with a significant improvement in track conditions. On the contrary, Ferrari opted for an extremely unloaded setup, as confirmed both by the indicators and the truly remarkable performance in the Monza straights.
If on the main straight the difference in top speed is contained, the main reason is that all the teams unload all the hybrid power precisely in the very long straight between the Parabolica and the first chicane, given how much time is spent at maximum speed. In the following sections, however, where the hybrid is necessarily used more sparingly, those with less drag come to the fore, and the two SF24 cars show very high top speeds both approaching the Roggia (+6/+7 over Lando Norris and George Russell), before the Ascari (+5/+5), and at the braking of the Parabolica (+5/+4). The hope of the Maranello technicians was also to exploit the strong adhesive grip of the soft tires with the high temperatures to find that extra grip even in the more twisty sections, but the necessary balance was very delicate, and the gradual drop in temperatures as the day progressed took some strength out of the front of the SF24, impacting both Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc, albeit in different ways as we’ll see shortly.
Mercedes, on the other hand, took a sort of middle ground, with a particularly balanced car both in terms of downforce and balance, with George Russell clearly hitting the perfect tire window on his last attempt, and Lewis Hamilton finishing sixth, but only 77 thousandths from Oscar Piastri’s front row, giving an idea of how close the top drivers really were on Saturday afternoon in Italy. Red Bull and Max Verstappen, however, struggled greatly. The data shows a clear loss of grip from the middle of the lap onwards starting in Q2, indicating a setup window and tire performance badly out of target. The RB20 single-seater seems to have opted for a setup on the higher downforce side of the spectrum available, but so far the results are quite disappointing, with low speeds on the straights and grip difficulties in the corners. The car’s chronic understeer seems impossible to correct with so little downforce available, relegating Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez to the unexpected role of a struggling fourth force.
On this topic, it is interesting to reconsider the comments of the two Ferrari drivers after the qualifying session, with Charles Leclerc stating that he and Carlos Sainz “rotate the car differently.” Looking at the telemetry data, we can see that the Monegasque tends to accelerate while still in the middle of the curve, unlike his Spanish teammate, and we can recall how often Charles Leclerc has emphasized the need for a strong front end, even over the radio during the session. Connecting the dots, it appears that Charles Leclerc’s driving style in these conditions involves rotating the rear of the car in slower corners using the throttle while keeping the front axle “planted,” so to speak. In contrast, Carlos Sainz is much more progressive but more at risk of understeer in long corners. The weakening of the front end thus ended up (and this is clearly visible in the data) weakening Charles Leclerc in short, slow corners (the three chicanes) and putting Carlos Sainz in difficulty in the longer, faster corners, such as Lesmo and Parabolica.
Finally, regarding race predictions, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri are certainly the favorites in the fight to win the Italian Grand Prix also due to the possibility of working together as a team and managing pace and strategy with two cars in front, assuming both get a good start. Beyond this, however, the advantage in race pace should not be nearly as significant as seen at the Zandvoort circuit last weekend, and Mercedes and Ferrari should be almost on par right behind them. The 100 meters of drag reduction system added on the main straight should make overtaking much easier than last season, and this could significantly enliven the race, considering that the strategy will almost certainly be a one-stop with tire degradation improving more and more as the track evolves. Ferrari team principal Frederic Vasseur told Sky that the unloaded setup should be of great help in the race, also confirming the counterintuitive nature that this generation of cars sometimes expresses, which definitely puts Ferrari in an attacking position.
In the first challenge, against Mercedes, Ferrari seems able to compete at least on equal footing, while against McLaren it will depend on how the higher downforce setup will affect Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri’s tire management and race pace. As for the Formula 1 championship, this is an important opportunity for Lando Norris and McLaren: the level of Ferrari and Mercedes at the Monza circuit appears very high, and recovering from seventh place for Max Verstappen this time seems like a truly daunting task, especially considering what was seen on track from the Red Bull RB20 so far this weekend. We will see, therefore, who will prevail in an Italian Grand Prix that is technically not entirely representative, given the uniqueness of the circuit, but which risks having a significant impact on the 2024 Formula 1 season.
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