The continent changes, but the predictions remain the same. Montreal presents itself as the perfect hunting ground for McLaren, which, although coming off a one-two on the sweeping curves of the Circuit de Catalunya-Barcelona, has shown that low-speed corners and agility over kerbs are among its many strong points. Max Verstappen’s goal will be to contain both his championship points deficit and the penalty points on his license, while Ferrari faces a confrontation with itself. The Italian side is seeking confirmation, eager to prove its progress in tyre exploitation during the qualifying session.
The Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve in Montreal is a track that differs significantly from Barcelona, where McLaren recently scored a one-two, but it still suits the papaya cars on paper. Montreal is the classic stop-and-go circuit, full of straights requiring low-downforce setups, interrupted by heavy braking zones and sharp accelerations, rewarding braking stability and traction efficiency. It is no coincidence that Brembo ranks the circuit as one of the toughest on the braking system.
The particularly low average lap speed, under 215 kilometers per hour, reflects the abundance of slow corners—three taken at under 100 kilometers per hour and another three below 150. McLaren is eyeing a starring role this weekend, aware that the fierce accelerations from low speeds will especially stress the rear tyres, which the MCL39 has proven adept at managing. Moreover, between Bahrain, Miami, and Monaco, the papaya car also stood out for its agility in slow sections. This is the result of a deliberate design philosophy: preferring a car that can run slightly higher off the ground with softer suspension, sacrificing peak aerodynamic load in high-speed corners but gaining mechanical grip at low speeds.
After securing pole position in Monaco, McLaren team principal Andrea Stella summarized that the team’s objective during the car’s development had been to improve its performance in slow corners and reduce its reliance on running the car very low and stiff—a setup that might work well at certain circuits but less effectively at others. In the Principality, the MCL39 had demonstrated that its soft suspension setup also ensured excellent absorption of bumps, which is a quality that will be crucial over the high kerbs and uneven surface of Montreal.
The differences with Monaco
With McLaren favored based on its Monaco performance, it is fair to ask whether Ferrari can repeat its form from the Principality. The predominance of slow corners certainly helps with balance, as there is no need to compromise between high and low-speed sections. The absence of fast corners could also benefit Lewis Hamilton, who struggled with the SF-25’s oversteer at high speeds, provided he finds better braking confidence.
However, it is unlikely Ferrari will replicate its late-May form. In Montreal, the average lap speed is about 40 kilometers per hour higher than in Monaco, and the car experiences greater aerodynamic forces, pressing it harder to the ground. This raises concerns about floor wear, also due to a race distance 17% longer than that in Monaco. The fear is that Ferrari might be forced to stiffen the suspension and sacrifice mechanical grip, once again suffering in those slow corners that have been the car’s weak point since the start of the 2025 Formula 1 season.
Ferrari’s challenge will once again be a difficult task and the most important comparison for the Maranello team is not against its rivals, but against itself. The team has worked extensively on exploiting the new soft tyre in terms of qualifying pace, showing modest progress between the Monaco Grand Prix and Barcelona. After the race in Spain, Ferrari team principal Frederic Vasseur warned that one must remain humble when it comes to tyres, as every weekend begins from a blank sheet. The French manager added that Canada would present a completely different scenario, with distinct track surface, cooler temperatures, and different types of corners, cautioning against assuming that what had been learned in Barcelona would still be applicable two weeks later.
In Montreal, Pirelli is once again bringing the softest compounds in its range, namely C4, C5, and C6, as opposed to the harder ones used at the Circuit de Catalunya in Barcelona. Moreover, the smooth Canadian track surface contrasts starkly with Barcelona’s abrasive surface. At Imola, teams and drivers struggled to unlock the potential of the new C6, which suffered significant deformation through the Italian track’s fast corners. This could be less of an issue in Canada, where peak lateral acceleration is below 3.5 g compared to the 4.5 g seen in Italy. However, the consistency of the tyre under violent and repeated longitudinal forces will need to be assessed. On the other hand, the lack of fast corners makes it very difficult to balance front and rear tyre temperatures, as they work alternately in braking and traction phases, making Montreal an ideal proving ground for Ferrari’s one-lap approach.
Verstappen on the defensive, Mercedes an unknown
Things don’t look particularly bright for Red Bull, aware that keeping pace with McLaren in slow corners, their natural habitat, will be tough. Max Verstappen’s priority will be to limit damage while waiting for more favorable tracks, also avoiding any more penalty points that could trigger a race ban. The Dutchman might, however, benefit from any intra-team battles between Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, as neither has consistently asserted dominance over the other in qualifying.
Mercedes is also under the spotlight, welcoming the cooler temperatures expected in Canada. Unless poor setup choices get in the way, the W16 has shown that its rear axle is a strong point, potentially advantageous in Montreal’s many traction zones. It will be interesting to see if the rear suspension introduced at Imola makes a return, and whether Kimi Antonelli shows progress with the C6 tyre, which he struggled to handle consistently in May. Canada is also expected to bring a stronger showing from Williams, potentially closer to the front than it was in Spain, ready to capitalize on any mistake from the top teams.
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