Monaco GP, race pace analysis: Carlos Sainz with best stint on Medium C4 tires. Monaco race pace: Carlos Sainz the best with a great progression.

Even though race pace is not as crucial on the streets of Monaco as on other tracks (as demonstrated by Daniel Ricciardo in 2018, when the Red Bull driver managed to win the race despite some serious power unit issues that didn’t allow him to maintain a very high pace for most of the race), our usual analysis might allow us to make some observations that could be useful for the rest of the weekend.

During the second free practice session in Monte Carlo, we witnessed absolute dominance from Charles Leclerc in the qualifying simulation times. The Monegasque driver started with a very aggressive approach, attacking every corner, curb, or guardrail on the track. The session ended with Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso in second and third positions, but is this really the true picture of the situation?

Most likely not. Even though Mercedes started well, we know that Friday is somewhat its golden day, before the decline on Saturday and Sunday. McLaren and Red Bull could have been holding back, which is why it is so important to analyze the long runs at the end of the session to try to understand how much.

Carlos Sainz the best with a great progression
While Charles Leclerc shines in the qualifying simulations, in the long runs, somewhat surprisingly, Carlos Sainz excels. With a great progression towards the end, the Spaniard recorded the best stint on the Medium C4 tires. Max Verstappen is the second fastest driver and the only one who tried both the Soft C5 and Hard C3 tires. The others mostly ran on Medium tires (Lance Stroll preferred to stay in the garage).

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The Dutchman from Red Bull is momentarily beaten by the Ferrari SF-24 cars. Although Charles Leclerc is not the fastest in this case, he remains third. Given the low importance of the long runs, the home driver might have chosen a setup more suited to a single lap (and he is not the only one).

There are two aspects that we should take into consideration:

1) Friday’s race paces are less valuable than usual, also due to the traffic on the track
2) The other key aspect is graining, a phenomenon that affected the Mercedes stints and caused some trouble for other drivers as well. The positive aspect is that Ferrari does not seem to have suffered from the problem.

Max Verstappen yields to Ferrari, for now
The world champion has to yield to Ferrari, at least for now. Carlos Sainz is the fastest in the long runs and Charles Leclerc the best in pure performance. Regardless, the highest chances of victory here in Monaco do not come from who is the best with a lot of fuel on board, but from who manages to take pole position on Saturday. Given the pace shown on Friday by Charles Leclerc, at least for now, Ferrari fans can dream. However, beware of counting Max Verstappen (and even McLaren, which might be holding back) out of the fight. The Imola weekend teaches us this.