Monaco GP: Charles Leclerc and Ferrari's big opportunity to win a race in 2023

In seven days, Formula 1 will be ready for the start of the Monaco Grand Prix weekend. The Monte Carlo circuit has often been a unique event, as is the track itself, with its historical charm but also anachronistic nature compared to modern single-seaters.

The sporting highlight of the Monaco weekend is always the qualifying session, where each driver can lay solid foundations for victory. The race itself is a parade to be completed without making mistakes, a priority even over pure performance.

In this scenario, Scuderia Ferrari sees the opportunity to make a significant impact. In the five race weekends held so far, the SF-23 has shown weaknesses in race management but has also proven to be highly competitive in the qualifying session. While this performance fluctuation over a 24-hour period may not be ideal on most of the tracks, in Monaco, it becomes a wildcard that can be crucial to score a race win in 2023.

Within the Scuderia’s package, Charles Leclerc is also an asset. He has few rivals when it comes to setting fast laps, especially on his beloved track. If he manages to secure his second pole position of the season on home soil, Charles Leclerc’s chances of achieving his first victory in 2023 will increase significantly.

In Monaco, the tire variable is not a factor, as degradation is practically nonexistent. Although the race pace may not be the fastest, overtaking is virtually impossible for those chasing from behind. Recent examples confirm this.

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In 2018, Daniel Ricciardo won the race despite his Red Bull suffering from a hybrid power unit issue starting from the 28th lap. For fifty laps, the Australian, initially destined to retire, managed to fend off Sebastian Vettel’s attacks and secured a sensational victory. Furthermore, the current cars have increased in size, making overtaking maneuvers even less likely unless the driver in front makes an error.

The only variable that can complicate the race leader’s life comes in the form of unforeseen circumstances, as seen last year with unstable weather conditions that forced the drivers to switch from full wet tires at the start to dry tires. Such a situation led to a strategic mistake by Scuderia Ferrari, costing Charles Leclerc the win and even a podium finish.

In terms of tactics, undercut and overcut maneuvers are not as effective as on other tracks, partly due to the shorter length of the circuit. To gain a couple of seconds on the out lap, one needs clear track space, an immediate connection with the new tire, and the hope that the direct opponent is not in a position to push back in defense.

In Monaco, the leader in stable track conditions always tends to wait for the moves of the opponents. It is also in their interest not to push the race pace too hard in order to keep a compact group behind them, which becomes an advantage as it forces those who decide to pit early to rejoin the track in traffic.

From a technical perspective, Monaco is also an atypical event. In the Principality, we will see high downforce packages, but no new updates are expected as announced in Imola, which were postponed for the subsequent race in Barcelona. Teams usually prefer to play it safe during a weekend that already has many variables.