Martin Brundle has offered his first predictions for the 2026 Formula 1 season, identifying Mercedes and McLaren as the two teams set to battle on track, while Ferrari is expected to remain on the sidelines. At least, that is the view of the former F1 driver and respected Sky Sports F1 commentator.
The fight for on-track dominance is expected to be “intense” this year, but only between two teams. According to Brundle, Mercedes and McLaren will be the ones fighting at the front, with Ferrari left watching from behind.
The experienced Formula 1 analyst shared his thoughts on what could unfold during the so-called “year zero” of F1 in 2026, a season that will mark the introduction of a brand-new technical regulation framework, entirely new cars, and potentially a reshuffling of the competitive order.
Almost all teams have already unveiled their new liveries, with Williams, Cadillac, Aston Martin and McLaren still missing from the list. Most outfits have also completed their first highly confidential test sessions in Barcelona, with the exception of Williams, which was unable to participate due to delays in the development of its new car.
According to Brundle, Mercedes could pose a serious challenge to McLaren. The Silver Arrows are coming off a strong season in which they managed to consolidate second place in the championship standings. McLaren, on the other hand, now faces the task of proving that last year’s double success was fully deserved, having secured both the drivers’ title with Lando Norris and the constructors’ championship.
Toto Wolff appears highly motivated, judging by his recent fiery comments aimed at rival teams regarding the engine debate, and is determined to return to fighting at the very top. Martin Brundle believes the Mercedes team principal will be eager to assert his authority over Mercedes’ customer teams, namely McLaren, Williams and Alpine.
“Can you imagine when Toto goes into a board meeting at Mercedes headquarters, and they mention that McLaren, their customer team, has won the last two world championships?” the British commentator said on Sky Sports F1.
“In 2025, they dominated completely, with almost double the points of the second-placed team. I don’t think Toto enjoys that very much. He is an extremely competitive man and he will try to make the difference against McLaren,” Martin Brundle added.
The Mercedes power unit has already demonstrated its reliability during the Barcelona shakedown. In total, the three Mercedes-powered teams — Mercedes, McLaren and Alpine — completed more than 1,100 laps over the course of the test.
Mercedes vs McLaren: what about Ferrari?
McLaren heads into the 2026 season as the reigning champion and will be aiming to defend its title. “The regulations state that you cannot simply be the works team and then supply your customer teams with an inferior product. From that point of view, the controls are very, very strict,” Martin Brundle continued in his analysis.
“They have an in-depth knowledge of almost everything related to that power unit, because it has been developed and run in the simulator for many, many months. I’m sure they report things back to McLaren with a significant delay. I would do the same if I were them. Mercedes, being extremely competitive, will desperately try to beat McLaren this year. And McLaren, of course, will try to do the same. It could become quite a fierce situation. But if Mercedes were unable to win with its own car, it would rather see another team using its power unit take the victory.”
Ferrari, however, appears to be excluded from this battle. Martin Brundle makes no mention of the Scuderia, despite the fact that the Italian team showed a solid level of reliability during the Barcelona tests. In total, Ferrari-powered teams completed approximately 990 laps, with Ferrari itself logging around 440 laps and Haas adding roughly 390 more.
Martin Brundle’s assessment of the 2026 landscape highlights the fascinating intra-engine rivalry that could define the start of this new technical era, placing the historic Mercedes-McLaren dynamic at the forefront of the title race. By suggesting that Ferrari’s reliability in Barcelona might not be enough to overcome the developmental head-start of the Mercedes-powered frontrunners, Brundle underscores the immense pressure on Maranello to find raw performance before the season opener. As Toto Wolff seeks to reclaim the glory stolen by his own customer team, the friction between Brackley and Woking could provide the spark for one of the most competitive seasons in recent memory.
While Ferrari has shown promise in terms of mileage, the expert consensus points toward a showdown between Mercedes and the reigning champions at McLaren as the 2026 season kicks off.
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