Mercedes bets on downforce in Las Vegas, but Ferrari targets victory. Key aspects to watch include Ferrari’s push for victory in Las Vegas.

Another thrilling Formula 1 qualifying session, this time in Las Vegas. The session was a rollercoaster of emotions, primarily due to the constant shifts in top performances among teams. However, Mercedes consistently seemed to hold the best hand for pole position—a fitting metaphor for a casino setting. A fantastic Carlos Sainz secured the front row for Ferrari, missing pole by just a tenth, a result that was almost unimaginable for the Scuderia given their expectations of a tough qualifying session due to low temperatures. Instead, Ferrari placed Carlos Sainz on the front row and Leclerc on the second, behind a sensational Gasly, who clinched third with an Alpine that hardly resembles the car from earlier in the season. Let’s examine the data from the top three drivers before diving deeper into the analysis, as there are already some intriguing insights.

Mercedes bets on downforce and quick tire activation, but race pace is uncertain

The first noticeable aspect is that the W15 was set up with a configuration derived from the second free practice session, featuring significantly higher aerodynamic downforce than its rivals. This was especially evident in the first sector, particularly in the high-speed Turn 3-4 sequence, where George Russell passed nearly 20 km/h faster than Carlos Sainz and Pierre Gasly. The advantages of this Mercedes setup are twofold: first, Russell was able to quickly build a substantial lead in the first sector’s twisty sections and during braking phases, as he could brake later and carry the braking closer to the corner apex. Second, the higher downforce seemed to provide additional energy to the tires, enabling quicker activation of the compound. Russell was practically the only frontrunner to complete just one preparation lap.

However, this added downforce came at the cost of straight-line speed, as shown by data indicating Gasly and Sainz consistently gaining on Russell in the straights. Despite this, the #63 Mercedes still secured pole by just one-tenth. Credit must be given to Russell for significantly improving his qualifying performance this season, especially compared to Hamilton’s underwhelming Q3 performance marred by two uncharacteristic mistakes.

The setup differences introduced by Toto Wolff’s team were notable, with a focus on both downforce and efficiency through a significant reduction in ride height. The big question remains: how will this downforce-heavy setup affect race pace? With the current tires in Formula 1, the equation “more downforce equals less degradation” doesn’t always hold true. Only the race will clarify this uncertainty.

Ferrari fast on straights: victory is the goal, but hard tires are the wildcard

Compared to Mercedes, Carlos Sainz’s Ferrari seemed more balanced, with excellent top speeds and solid handling in slower sections, particularly in the central sector thanks to strong traction. The Spaniard’s front-row start genuinely offers Ferrari hopes of victory. However, the main concern remains the tires, with a scenario that doesn’t look entirely favorable for the SF-24, especially given past trends. After the initial stint on medium tires, the race will largely be run on hard compounds in low temperatures—a combination that may not suit the Ferrari and could minimize its strengths, such as superior tire management due to lower overheating.

Interestingly, no team tested hard tires during free practice, leaving everyone in the dark about the race compound. As such, only the race will reveal who got the aero-mechanical setup right, balancing energy input, graining management, compound activation, and other factors.

Alpine’s surprise and McLaren’s disappointment

As mentioned earlier, Pierre Gasly’s third-place finish was incredible. Data analysis reveals a low-drag but effective car, which lost out to Sainz in traction phases but struck a good balance overall, aided by the French driver’s talent, which has shone in the season’s latter stages. McLaren, on the other hand, disappointed, especially after promising performances from Oscar Piastri in practice. They ultimately secured only sixth and eighth places, struggling to optimize tire performance, particularly in the first sector.

Fifth place went to an impressive Max Verstappen, right behind Leclerc and ahead of Norris. Verstappen’s mastery allowed him to push the RB20 to its limits, and securing this position could mathematically seal his fourth championship title. If he maintains his position ahead of Norris after the first lap, Verstappen will likely fight tooth and nail to hold off any overtaking attempts, potentially aiding Ferrari in a two-against-one battle for victory, as Gasly is unlikely to match the leaders’ race pace.

Ferrari’s PU advantage and Sainz’s edge

A quick comparison of Leclerc and Sainz’s data suggests that the new power unit installed for Sainz in Brazil provided an edge, especially in the second and third sectors, where power output plays a significant role. In the first sector, however, Leclerc’s struggles seemed to stem from slower tire warm-up, forcing him into less optimal lines through Turns 3-4 and delaying acceleration compared to Sainz. On the straights, Sainz gained steadily and linearly, with an overall advantage of about three-tenths.

Notably, Carlos Sainz may have benefited slightly (around half a tenth) from the slipstream of Hamilton, who was 3-5 seconds ahead during the lap. Meanwhile, Charles Leclerc’s setup appeared to feature slightly higher downforce. Additionally, Carlos Sainz’s gear shifts occurred approximately 170 rpm higher than Leclerc’s, suggesting that the #55 Ferrari could extract more performance from the power unit, particularly at higher gears. If fuel consumption is not an issue, Carlos Sainz could leverage this in the race, further boosting his candidacy for victory. However, if setups favor hard tires, Charles Leclerc should also remain in contention, especially since recent caution has stemmed largely from brake overheating—an issue unlikely to arise in Las Vegas with temperatures below 15°C.

The race remains an enigma for everyone, given the compound and conditions. Key aspects to watch include Ferrari’s push for victory, McLaren’s attempt to recover, George Russell’s tenacity, and Verstappen’s efforts to clinch the drivers’ title. Many storylines are in play on Las Vegas’s table—we’ll see who comes out on top.