At Monza McLaren is the favorite, but Ferrari could surprise
Monza could not come at a better moment for Ferrari, a team eager to bounce back after a disappointing weekend both in terms of performance and results. Repeating the 2024 victory will be a tall order, especially with McLaren arriving as the clear favorite. However, the home track in Lombardy could play to the strengths of the SF-25, while also highlighting the qualities of the Red Bull driven by Max Verstappen. Fans in Brianza will also have their eyes on Andrea Kimi Antonelli, another home hero, who after showing flashes of speed now needs to put everything together.
Monza, a completely different challenge compared to Zandvoort
The Italian circuit is often mistakenly considered simple due to its layout of long straights connected by chicanes. In reality, Monza is one of the most demanding tracks of the calendar because of the extreme conditions it imposes. Cars run with the lowest downforce of the season, about 20% less than Monte Carlo, making them difficult to control. Although the number of corners is limited, they are perfectly balanced across all speed ranges: slow (the first two chicanes), medium (the two Lesmos), and high speed (Ascari and the Parabolica-Alboreto). Finding a setup that works for all of them is a huge challenge. On top of that, the lap average is the highest of the season, exceeding 260 km/h, which generates enormous aerodynamic load at speed, pressing the cars onto the tarmac and requiring careful setup choices to prevent excessive wear of the plank under the floor.
Only a couple of years ago, Monza was one of McLaren’s weakest circuits. The team struggled badly in slow corners and lacked an efficient low-downforce package. Those days are long gone. The transformation at Woking has been impressive, and McLaren now arrives in Italy as the favorite. Still, the team will not enjoy the same advantage it had at Budapest or Zandvoort, where medium-speed corners played perfectly to the strengths of the papaya-colored MCL39. At Monza, the real challenge will come at the high-speed Ascari and Parabolica turns, where team principal Andrea Stella admitted: “In high-speed corners, we are not the fastest car.” For Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, the race could also be about watching their mirrors. Piastri in particular will start the weekend at a disadvantage, as he hands his car over to young driver Alex Dunne for FP1 and therefore misses crucial early track time.
Ferrari chasing redemption
The home team’s mission is clear: recover from the disappointment of Zandvoort, where Ferrari not only failed to score points with both cars but also lacked overall pace. There are reasons for optimism, as the struggles in the Netherlands were the result of several combined factors. Team principal Frédéric Vasseur did not mince words, calling it “the worst Friday in three years” and admitting that a poor base setup at the start compromised the entire weekend.
The SF-25 also showed its weaknesses on the Dutch circuit, which exposed its limitations in long, medium-speed corners, especially turns 9 and 10—features that do not exist at Monza. In Italy, Ferrari should be able to play to its strengths: high-speed cornering stability, efficiency in low-downforce configurations, and the extra horsepower that Maranello’s engineers will surely try to extract from the power unit for the Italian Grand Prix.
There is also hope that Lewis Hamilton can give the team a significant boost. The seven-time World Champion will serve a five-place grid penalty, but his role in car preparation will still be crucial. At Zandvoort, Lewis Hamilton felt a stronger connection with the SF-25 thanks to a different approach between driver and team, which allowed him to start the weekend on a better footing compared to recent races. Ferrari knows how important it would be to have both drivers performing at their best, something Andrea Stella himself acknowledged: “Having two competitive drivers makes both the car and the entire team stronger, because they can learn from each other.”
All eyes on Max Verstappen
Fresh from a podium at his home race, Max Verstappen has every reason to believe he can fight for another top result at Monza. Last year’s Italian Grand Prix was a nightmare for Red Bull, with poor balance and a lack of straight-line speed due to the absence of a proper low-drag package. This season, however, the Milton Keynes team has responded by introducing a specific rear wing for low-downforce tracks, which has already been used at Silverstone and Spa. In general, the RB21’s tendency to understeer appears to suit Verstappen when the downforce level drops, a factor that could work in his favor in Italy.
Qualifying will be decisive
All signs point to a one-stop race at Monza, which will make overtaking particularly difficult. Despite the long straights, the low-drag setups reduce the effectiveness of slipstreaming and the DRS, limiting opportunities to gain positions during the race. As a result, qualifying will once again be critical. Drivers will need to find a tow to maximize straight-line speed without ruining tire preparation in the crowded out-laps. The weekend promises no shortage of challenges and opportunities, with Ferrari, Antonelli, Norris, and others all aiming for redemption in front of the passionate Italian crowd.
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