Lusail track flips everything: Ferrari takes a double gamble to counter McLaren. Ferrari ramps up updates and splits its strategy in an attempt to challenge a resurgent McLaren.

The first day of action in Qatar concludes with pole position for McLaren and Lando Norris. The result aligns with pre-event predictions but not with the outcomes of practice, where Ferrari and Charles Leclerc dominated. The British team capitalizes on a track evolution that favors the MCL38 but must beware of a Ferrari employing a split strategy. Adding to the unpredictability is the wildcard Mercedes.

The day begins decently for the two McLarens, finishing second and third in practice. What surprises most is the four-tenths deficit to Charles Leclerc, with Carlos Sainz not far behind, less than two-tenths off Norris. In the first session, the Woking drivers wrestle with an unruly car featuring an unstable rear end. However, the situation is completely reversed during Sprint qualifying, where McLaren tops all three sessions, while the Ferraris settle for fourth and fifth, nearly three-tenths off pole-sitter Lando Norris.

The difference between practice and qualifying lies in the track. As night falls, the asphalt cools by 5°C and gains grip, shifting balance rearward where the wider tires benefit more from increased adhesion. The track evolution stabilizes McLaren’s oversteer-prone rear end, aided by setup adjustments. Once balanced, Norris and Piastri exploit the MCL38’s strengths—high downforce and stability through long, sweeping corners—making Qatar a friendly circuit for the car.

While track evolution benefits McLaren, it complicates Ferrari’s plans. The Scuderia, already enjoying a planted rear end during practice, finds itself with overly rear-biased balance in qualifying, a problem that becomes evident in Q3 with the soft tires. Both Leclerc and Sainz struggle with understeer on entry and mid-corner, as the front end slides outward. This dynamic bodes poorly for tire management in the Sprint, as the front tires are the critical factor. However, using harder compounds might mitigate the issue.

Ferrari still plays its cards, starting with the gamble of diverging tire allocations for the weekend compared to its rivals. Alongside Williams, Ferrari is the only team to run practice on hard tires instead of mediums, foregoing the option of a two-stop strategy with double stints on hards for Sunday. In return, Ferrari secures an extra set of fresh medium tires, scrubbed in practice, to use in the Sprint or a second stint on Sunday—possibly aiming for a single pit stop, made viable by cooler track temperatures (15°C lower than 2023) and increased grip.

Ferrari’s second gamble involves using the new floor on Charles Leclerc’s car for both qualifying and the race. Initially, the updates were intended as a test for 2025 correlation. However, positive feedback on driver confidence and drivability pushes the team to deploy the upgrade early. To counter McLaren, however, the team must address the balance issue after the Sprint.

The Silver Arrows secure a front-row start with George Russell, who finishes second, just a few thousandths off pole. Qatar suits the W15 well, with its smooth asphalt allowing the car to run lower ride heights without triggering porpoising. The fast corners emphasize Mercedes’ strong front end, while mild temperatures prevent the car from overheating its tires. Starting from second, Russell has the potential to fight for the Sprint win and contend again on Sunday. Hamilton, seventh on the grid, continues to struggle in single-lap pace but could pose a threat in Saturday’s race.

Among those in Hamilton’s sights is Max Verstappen, who ends the day sixth in a Red Bull that has fallen to the fourth-fastest team. The four-time world champion feels comfortable in high-speed corners but lacks the front-end precision to attack other sections of the track. Red Bull’s greatest challenge remains achieving a balanced setup across high and low-speed corners. Red Bull and Mercedes were the only teams to run race simulations on medium tires, showing limited degradation. However, significant time differences suggest varying fuel loads, complicating performance predictions.

Mercedes finds itself playing referee in the Constructors’ Championship battle, while further back, another fierce fight unfolds for sixth place. Alpine emerges as the best of the rest, with Gasly securing eighth following his impressive second-row start in Las Vegas. The Anglo-French car thrives on smooth surfaces like Qatar’s, benefiting from low, stiff setups. The A524, showing consistent growth, features a new front wing introduced at Lusail, available only to Gasly. This marks the latest in a series of updates after a six-month development freeze. Alpine must defend against direct rivals Racing Bulls and Haas, ninth and tenth with Liam Lawson and Nico Hulkenberg, respectively. Every point is now crucial, both for the sixth-place battle and the top-tier duel between McLaren and Ferrari.

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