In recent years, one of Ferrari’s strengths has been its competitiveness on street circuits: the ability to handle bumps with minimal time loss and strong traction often allowed the team to extract the best from the car in these conditions. With the shift in philosophy from the SF-24 to the SF-25, part of these characteristics has been lost, and more importantly, rivals have made significant steps forward in these areas. Mercedes, Red Bull and McLaren are now more competitive on street-style tracks, and this could be Ferrari’s last opportunity to avoid its first winless season in the ground-effect era, which began with a one-two finish in Bahrain. The layout favours low-speed corners, an area where Ferrari has improved since Austin, but the weekend will be held in extremely low temperatures. Forecasts indicate minimums of around 10°C across all three days of action. Formula 1 has moved the sessions two hours earlier than last year, when track temperatures did not exceed 18°C during the race. In the championship picture, Oscar Piastri is certain to reach Qatar still in contention, while Max Verstappen must lose fewer than nine points to Lando Norris to remain mathematically alive in the final two rounds. After his two victories in Texas and Mexico City, a win in the Las Vegas GP would mark a third in a row for the British driver.
Red Bull, Mercedes and McLaren strong in cold sessions – Ferrari? Las Vegas will be even more of a “tyre formula”
The two coldest qualifying sessions of the year so far took place in Baku and Silverstone – with 26°C and 27°C track temperature respectively – and both were signed by Max Verstappen and Red Bull. With the earlier timetable in Las Vegas, slightly higher temperatures are possible, but the conditions will still be the coldest of the season. The RB21, as well as the W16, has shown no major issues bringing tyres into the correct working window even in cold conditions; the Las Vegas GP will test this trend, but early indications are positive. McLaren has proven competitive in all conditions, but a track like this American one may limit the strengths of the papaya team. It would not be surprising to see any of the top three teams take Pole Position on Friday night. In fact, George Russell and Max Verstappen have won the last three street races (Montreal, Baku, Singapore) and this year their cars have been the strongest in these situations over a single lap. Red Bull and especially Mercedes excel in longitudinal load, performing well on tracks where lateral forces are minimal: Baku and Singapore are perfect examples and the results confirm it. Meanwhile, McLaren cannot fully exploit its strengths in medium- and high-speed corners on street circuits, and this weekend will need to adapt to lower-downforce wings – a factor that favours Red Bull and Ferrari.
However, the team arriving in Nevada with the most question marks is undoubtedly Ferrari: since the summer break, the Scuderia has scored the fewest points (102 in 7 races and 2 Sprints), more than 60 points behind Red Bull and Mercedes. The step forward seen in Austin – widely discussed in recent weeks – delivered a small improvement in qualifying and a larger one in race pace, but without updates the SF-25 struggles to compete with the leading trio at most tracks. One type of circuit where Ferrari has failed to meet expectations is street circuits: the team has been two tenths behind McLaren and Red Bull, and even three tenths compared to Mercedes. Can the Las Vegas GP be different? The aerodynamic characteristics of the track emulate those of Baku: low-speed corners, all with minimum speeds under 120 km/h except Turn 3, and long straights where the SF-25 can exploit its efficiency. It is precisely on the four straights exceeding 300 km/h (with two DRS zones) that Ferrari will try to make the difference, likely fitting the rear wing previously used at Monza. On paper, it could be a competitive weekend for Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton, but much will depend on conditions and execution.
Last year, a narrow operating window created difficulties for both drivers, especially Charles Leclerc, and the SF-24 lost three and six tenths to George Russell (with Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc) in the first sector. This year, fewer issues are expected thanks to improved tyre warm-up. Qualifying execution will once again be crucial to stay competitive: in the last three rounds, Charles Leclerc has maximised his grid position, but Nevada will be an even tougher test. As seen in Mexico, where Ferrari was overall the third-best team just behind Red Bull, the smooth asphalt may allow engineers to pursue more extreme setups without excessive skid-block wear. The low-grip surface, combined with minimal lateral stress on the tyres throughout the lap, makes it both difficult and essential to extract grip from the Pirelli compounds and later manage long stints. McLaren has repeatedly shown that it is the reference in warming and maintaining tyre life over a race distance: while the papaya team may face a tricky qualifying, the MCL39 will have strong weapons in the race. For Oscar Piastri, this weekend may be the last chance to close the gap to his teammate, but low-grip conditions have often challenged the Australian driver.
Pirelli: C6 avoided, 2023–2024 selection confirmed. Has the graining risk been eliminated?
Pirelli will not bring the softest compound available for the Las Vegas GP: the supplier preferred to confirm the selection used in the past two years to minimise tyre-related issues. The choice to avoid the softest trio is linked to the risk of graining compromising the effectiveness of the soft. Surface overheating relative to the carcass is a key concern in Nevada: cold temperatures combined with extremely low-downforce setups, which lead to sliding in corners, are factors that contribute to this phenomenon and will challenge drivers during the race. “On one hand, you want the driver to push harder on the out-lap to bring the tyre into the correct temperature window, but on the other hand, you risk damaging the tread surface prematurely, which is already fragile due to the low temperatures,” revealed Antonio Mazzola, Tyre Engineer at Ferrari. Extremely high starting pressures of 28 and 26 psi, front and rear respectively, are confirmed to help the tyres enter the working window in the first laps under such unique conditions. In qualifying, the first sector will once again be crucial, featuring two long-radius corners where it will be essential to have the C5 up to temperature for the flying lap: Pole Position could depend on this section and therefore on tyre preparation.
The improved construction of the compounds, which feature enhanced mechanical properties, may mitigate the problem but does not guarantee its absence. Following other cars will be particularly difficult due to the lack of grip that leads to graining and significant time loss. As a street circuit, track evolution will be considerable throughout the weekend, especially in Friday night’s qualifying. In the race, teams will need to factor in the possibility of Safety Car interventions given the overtaking opportunities around the Las Vegas layout. Such scenarios could influence strategy, which under ideal circumstances involves a one-stop race. Last year, teams mainly used the medium and hard compounds: the limited degradation encourages a single pit stop.
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