Kimi Antonelli believes Ferrari will emerge as Mercedes’ main rival during the second half of the 2026 Formula 1 season, with the Italian team preparing significant development steps at Zandvoort and Monza while Mercedes continues to race with a package that has remained largely unchanged since Canada.
The Italian driver went into the summer break as the championship leader, holding a 50-point advantage over Lewis Hamilton. After three weeks away from the track, attention now turns to Zandvoort, where Mercedes may not even start the weekend as favourite. Rival teams have accelerated their development programmes, while the Brackley squad has not introduced a major performance package since the Canadian Grand Prix.
Kimi Antonelli sees Ferrari as Mercedes’ biggest second-half threat
McLaren introduced the first part of a promising upgrade package in Hungary and received an immediate response from the car. Ferrari, meanwhile, is preparing developments across consecutive weekends, with a new SF-26 floor package arriving at Zandvoort before further power-unit work at Monza.
Ahead of the Dutch Grand Prix, Kimi Antonelli is therefore focusing closely on Ferrari and McLaren. He considers the Scuderia the principal threat to Mercedes over the remainder of the championship, although he expects McLaren to have the strongest package at Zandvoort after its victories there in 2024 and 2025.
“The other teams are bringing upgrades. In the end, we haven’t brought a performance package since Canada, so our car has been standing still for a while,” Kimi Antonelli explained. “It’s normal that when teams bring new parts, they get closer and at certain tracks they become faster.”
McLaren tipped as Zandvoort favourite ahead of Ferrari
Kimi Antonelli expects an extremely close contest between Formula 1’s leading teams at a circuit where the combination of the Sprint format, technical corners and possible rain could alter the competitive picture. The full 2026 Dutch Grand Prix challenge at Zandvoort will also give teams very little time to optimise their cars before competitive running begins.
“We expect McLaren and Ferrari to be very fast. And then obviously there’s Verstappen; he’ll definitely be up there as well. I think it will be tight between all of the top four, and we’ll see whether the possible rain mixes things up,” Kimi Antonelli said.
“I think McLaren is the favourite. They’ve always been strong here, ahead of Ferrari.”
Ferrari’s Zandvoort and Monza upgrades attract Antonelli’s attention
Looking beyond the Dutch Grand Prix itself, Kimi Antonelli believes Ferrari represents the more significant threat to Mercedes over the longer term because of the development programme planned by Maranello.
“Honestly, I think Ferrari will be the main rival in the second half of the season,” Kimi Antonelli added. “They have a new floor here and they’ll also have the engine with the ADUO at Monza.”
Ferrari’s aerodynamic development at Zandvoort is being followed immediately by further power-unit work for its home race, with the team preparing a planned performance step for the Italian Grand Prix at Monza.
Kimi Antonelli is particularly interested in how much performance Ferrari will gain and whether those improvements could allow the team to make changes to the aerodynamic compromise around the rear of the SF-26: “It will be interesting to see how much they gain and whether they reduce the winglet behind the exhaust, which gives you downforce through the corners but takes away power,” he explained.
The Mercedes driver also expects McLaren to remain extremely competitive, particularly after its latest development step: “McLaren will still be very strong. We’ll see how many upgrades they can manage to bring; I think this is their last big package.”
Mercedes could bring its upgrade response in early October
Mercedes is not expected to answer its rivals’ recent development push immediately. Its own upgrade response will probably arrive at the beginning of October.
The original plan was to introduce the new developments at the Singapore Grand Prix. However, the addition of Sepang to the schedule has prompted internal discussions at Mercedes, creating the possibility that the package could be brought forward by one week.
Until then, Ferrari and McLaren have an opportunity to reduce Mercedes’ advantage through their own development programmes. For Kimi Antonelli, the longer-term picture is becoming increasingly clear: although McLaren may be the team to beat at Zandvoort, Ferrari is the rival he expects to pose the greatest challenge to Mercedes over the second half of the championship.
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