The only predictability in a terribly unpredictable Formula 1 is that each day can dismantle the certainties of the previous one. McLaren confirms its superiority over the competition in Australia, but without facing a Ferrari that, after Friday’s free practice session at the 5.278-kilometre Albert Park Grand Prix Circuit in Melbourne, promised to put up a fight. The changes made overnight in Australia bring the MCL39 single-seater to life while disrupting the balance of the SF-25, with the reasons to be found in the tires and the expected weather conditions for qualifying and the race.
McLaren show
At the end of Friday, the world champions were not fully satisfied with the balance of the MCL39 car, especially on a single lap with low fuel loads. It is precisely in the harmony between car and drivers that the Woking team finds the biggest gains overnight. McLaren retains the same wing configuration from the second free practice session, but the straight-line rankings suggest that, between floor management and profile incidence, aerodynamic load is increased, also providing an advantage in case of a wet race.
Unfortunately for us, the MCL39 cars show constant progress, shaving off 0.5 and 0.3 seconds in Q2 and Q3, respectively. In the same sessions, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri are separated by less than a tenth, demonstrating that both can push to the limit thanks to the confidence the car inspires. Both McLaren cars heat up their tires as early as the first sector and, most importantly, keep them alive until the final section, where Lando Norris is lethal in traction out of Turn 11, despite some difficulties in the last two corners.
Overall, the Woking single-seater proves to be predictable and well-balanced in transitions between high- and low-speed corners, inflicting consistent and substantial gaps, particularly at the end of the lap. McLaren’s superiority is even more significant considering that the Australian heat, single-lap performance, and a medium-low downforce track do not align with what should be the strengths of the Formula 1 project. However, it is premature to predict dominance now, with the only certainty being that the world champions’ package is already well-optimized, unlike the competition.
Now let’s take a look at the choices made by the Ferrari engineers and technicians. The Maranello team acknowledges McLaren’s initial superiority, but the six-and-a-half tenths gap does not appear to be entirely accurate. The issue does not lie in the potential of the current SF-25 but rather in the ability to extract it. The problem does not seem to be tire exploitation over a single lap as we initially thought, or at least, it is not the main factor. Instead, Charles Leclerc reveals that Ferrari has sacrificed some performance aspects in favor of others, a choice he still considers correct.
Straight-line rankings place Ferrari higher than on Friday, thanks to both engine mapping and a likely lower-downforce aerodynamic setup. The assumption is that the Prancing Horse is seeking greater mechanical traction, possibly softening the suspension at the expense of floor stability and aerodynamic efficiency. The suspicion is that the team is trying to anticipate the weather, not just the possible rain on Sunday but also the initially expected temperature rise for Saturday. However, the cloudy sky keeps the track surface at Friday’s 40 degrees celsius, making the changes counterproductive and destabilizing the car, moving it away from the drivers’ needs.
Lewis Hamilton’s steady, albeit slow, familiarization remains a positive sign, though he, like his teammate, complained about a deterioration in drivability in Q3. The Brit cited the wind and dropping temperatures, though the ease with which the Ferrari fell out of its operating window suggests that the balance was off from the start. Charles Leclerc’s mistake on his final attempt further explains the almost nonexistent improvement from Q2, resulting in the significant final gap. However, the Monegasque’s awareness of the root of today’s issues is an encouraging sign for the Maranello team heading into the next races.
Looking also at the performance of our other rivals, the good news for Red Bull is Max Verstappen’s third place, though it comes with a nearly four-tenths deficit to the McLaren duo. The Dutch driver expressed moderate satisfaction with the car, which already seemed less tricky to drive on Friday and had a satisfactory balance. Red Bull appears to have addressed its initial struggles in extracting grip from the tires, matching McLaren’s pace in the first sector but losing all its time in the final section. It is precisely in the third sector that the Woking team’s superiority stands out, with the car excelling at keeping the tires alive until the very end.
Max Verstappen’s third-place grid position is also a result of a low-downforce setup, highly effective on the straights and with fresh tire grip masking the reduced cornering adhesion. The Dutchman’s sensitivity might be enough to mitigate the impact of this in wet conditions, giving him a real shot at victory in the rain, though skepticism remains about Red Bull’s race pace in dry conditions. On the positive side for the Austrian side, the in-car confirmation of the updates introduced in testing is reassuring, whereas Liam Lawson’s Q1 elimination is a clear downside, not helped by the reliability issue that cost him the final practice session.
Regarding Mercedes, the Silver Arrows are second only to McLaren in terms of improvement compared to 2024 qualifying, shaving nearly 1.2 seconds off their lap times. The Brackley squad finally managed what often eluded them last year—progressing from Friday to Saturday. Mercedes improved its pace on the softest compound, which was its main weakness on Friday, raising curiosity about the W16’s performance on other tire compounds. George Russell’s fourth-place finish comes with some regret over his mistake at the start of his final attempt, while Kimi Antonelli’s Q1 elimination is an even bigger disappointment. The Italian paid a heavy price for his mistake in Turn 6, running wide into the gravel just enough to damage the floor.
The early exits of Kimi Antonelli and Liam Lawson, combined with Ferrari’s fourth-row start, highlight how unforgiving Formula 1 has become—every small mistake comes at a high cost. Q1 saw 17 drivers separated by less than seven-tenths, with a surprising Sauber standing out as the team, thanks to its Australia-specific upgrades, managed to get rookie Gabriel Bortoleto into Q2. In qualifying, however, the true midfield leader was Williams, with both drivers in the top 10, only narrowly outshone by an excellent Racing Bulls, led by Yuki Tsunoda and skillfully utilizing a tow. The race will offer plenty of opportunities to gain or lose positions, whether in wet or dry conditions, just as the championship remains far from decided after this first qualifying session of the 2025 Formula 1 season.
— see video above —
Leave a Reply