Japanese GP strategy analysis: Charles Leclerc loses out due to unlucky Safety Car timing. Suzuka race analysis: Leclerc’s strategy compromised by crucial Safety Car moment.

Suzuka delivered an exciting and action-packed race filled with twists and unpredictable moments. The new regulations are clearly generating a high level of uncertainty, from the many positions lost at the start by Mercedes to the numerous on-track battles as drivers fought to gain or defend their positions. What makes races like this particularly enjoyable is that, despite the fact that from a strategic point of view drivers were able to reach the finish with just a single pit stop, there was no real sense that an additional stop was needed. The racing was already compelling as it was.

Today, we can claim a small point in our favor. The difference between the strategies promoted by Pirelli this year lies in the finer details. Yesterday, the tyre supplier leaned more towards a one-stop strategy but also considered the possibility that some drivers might attempt to use the Soft compound. We, on the other hand, strongly backed the Medium/Hard approach, and this ultimately proved to be the preferred solution, adopted by 17 out of 22 drivers. Bottas was the only one to opt for a Hard/Medium sequence, Alonso chose to run exclusively on Medium tyres (using the Safety Car period to execute a double pit stop and effectively clear the Hard compound requirement), while Albon encountered issues late in the race and was forced to pass through the pit lane lap after lap.

The Medium/Hard strategy would have worked even without the intervention of the Safety Car. Several drivers had already decided to pit before the Oliver Bearman incident, including George Russell, who later identified his early stop—before the Safety Car—as one of the key reasons why he lost the race and ultimately dropped off the podium.

Russell, a collapse on every level

This is where our analysis truly begins. More than a pure technical breakdown, this is also a reflection on what unfolded during the race. The strategies themselves were relatively straightforward to understand. Around lap 17, teams began the cycle of pit stops, prioritizing drivers who were ahead of their teammates at that moment (with Norris being the only exception, as he was too far behind to threaten Piastri). This sequence penalized George Russell, Charles Leclerc, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri (both McLaren drivers stopped before the Safety Car), while it allowed Andrea Kimi Antonelli and Lewis Hamilton to gain several positions.

From that point onward, the race developed into a completely uncontested victory for Antonelli and a comprehensive collapse for George Russell. The British driver lost the championship lead, his composure, and—through both his behavior and his driving—his sense of control.

Why, you may ask? The deployment of the Safety Car sent Russell into a state of frustration. Only a few moments had passed since his pit stop, and that timing undoubtedly triggered a strong emotional reaction. It was enough to make him lose control. Antonelli suddenly found himself leading the race, and George was fully aware that his main rival was now on course for victory. But why direct his anger at the pit wall? It was simply a matter of circumstance. The Mercedes pit wall bore no responsibility.

In that moment, cracks began to appear in his composure, but the real damage had already been done earlier. Unlike Kimi Antonelli, who—despite a poor start—managed to overtake both Lewis Hamilton and Lando Norris on track before the Safety Car (with only Charles Leclerc able to hold him off), George Russell struggled to execute overtakes with the same effectiveness. In fact, when the race resumed on lap 27, Russell briefly held third position, only to be overtaken by both Ferraris—first by Lewis Hamilton and then by Charles Leclerc. The Monegasque driver then successfully defended against Russell’s attacks all the way to the finish, securing a valuable podium for the Scuderia.

Suzuka highlights Antonelli’s character, and more

Kimi Antonelli not only won the race and moved into the lead of the world championship, but he also demonstrated significantly stronger race craft and composure than George Russell. The British driver had started the season as the favorite, but after the races in China and Japan, that status is beginning to look less secure. The position he once held so firmly now appears to be under increasing pressure, and the month of April could prove to be a period of reflection for him.

Antonelli, however, still has one key area to improve. His starts continue to affect his overall race performance. Compared to Russell, his getaways off the line have been weaker, often forcing him into recovery drives. In the short term, his goal should not be to out-launch the Ferraris—achieving that will require technical improvements from the team—but rather to outperform Russell at the start. Once he achieves that, he will be able to apply even greater pressure on the British driver. And it is not as though the pressure he is already applying is insignificant.

To briefly step outside the standard analysis and not take up too much more of your time, we would like to highlight the drivers who, in our view, delivered particularly impressive performances today. Oscar Piastri earns a 9 (a flawless weekend in both qualifying and the race; aside from external factors, he has consistently been ahead of Norris so far), Antonelli an 8 (an outstanding race, with only the start preventing a higher score), Leclerc an 8.5 (driving beyond the car’s limits remains his specialty, although there is still something missing in qualifying), and Pierre Gasly a 9 (the Safety Car complicated matters, but he defended like a lion against Verstappen).

Dario Marrafuschi: “Low degradation, the Soft could have been an option”

We conclude with insights from Pirelli’s Head of Motorsport, Dario Marrafuschi, who provided further details on tyre behavior throughout the weekend: “In the end, the drivers mostly chose to follow what was, on paper, the fastest strategy. The only one to try something different was Bottas. No team took the risk of using the Soft compound, either at the start or towards the end of the race. This is despite the fact that it was a viable option, given the low degradation observed in previous days. Albon’s use of the C3 compound clearly had no strategic purpose, considering the high number of pit lane entries.”

“The Safety Car clearly benefited those drivers who had not opted for the undercut, including the race winner Andrea Kimi Antonelli. However, we believe that even without the neutralization, those who had not yet stopped would have done so around the same laps,” the manager added, also revealing plans for the upcoming Pirelli 2027 tyre tests scheduled to take place at Suzuka. “We will remain in Japan until Tuesday and Wednesday. Two days of development work on next season’s dry-weather tyres are planned. Red Bull and Racing Bulls will stay with us to provide support.”