Ferrari and Mercedes appear extremely closely matched on race pace after Friday practice at Monza, with Charles Leclerc and Andrea Kimi Antonelli separated by almost nothing in the long-run data. The picture remains dependent on the unusually high track temperatures, which were around 55°C, and on how much performance each team may still have kept in reserve, but the Italian Grand Prix is shaping up to be highly competitive.
The two free practice sessions at Monza have already provided a reasonably defined picture. On low-fuel qualifying simulations, Charles Leclerc had finished ahead of Lewis Hamilton and George Russell in FP1, with the Mercedes driver around three tenths behind. In FP2, however, George Russell reversed the order and beat Charles Leclerc by just 0.120 seconds.
Those are extremely small gaps at a circuit as fast as Monza, a venue that fully deserves its reputation as the “Temple of Speed”. The FP2 race simulations suggest an even tighter competitive picture.
Ferrari and Mercedes lead Italian GP race pace picture
McLaren appears to have shown less of its true potential during the long runs. It is unclear whether the team was carrying more fuel or using less Power Unit performance, but the two McLarens displayed very similar pace to one another while remaining some distance away from their main rivals.
Mercedes and Ferrari looked the strongest overall. Andrea Kimi Antonelli appears to be in excellent form and, despite having to start from the back of the grid because of his penalty, should have enough race pace to recover relatively comfortably into at least the top eight or top 10, with the possibility of achieving an even stronger result.
For that reason, Andrea Kimi Antonelli can be placed at the top of the race-pace order, also because of the large number of laps he completed on the Hard compound.
Liam Lawson produces surprise fastest long-run pace
In outright terms, however, the fastest driver was surprisingly Liam Lawson in the Red Bull, replacing the injured Isack Hadjar.
That result needs to be treated with caution. Liam Lawson used a brand-new set of C3 Hard tyres, which were the most suitable compound in the high temperatures experienced at Monza. The fresh tyres almost certainly helped his ability to manage the stint and maintain a strong pace.
This is also one of the reasons Ferrari can reasonably be considered the second-strongest force in the analysis. Despite running on the softer C5 compound, Charles Leclerc and Ferrari showed very consistent pace and remained broadly in line with the lap times produced by Andrea Kimi Antonelli and Liam Lawson.
Ferrari’s competitive Friday follows a weekend in which the team is already evaluating several important developments, including the SF-26 engine and floor upgrades introduced for Monza.
Race pace graph points towards Ferrari-Mercedes fight
Looking at the race-pace comparison, the Italian Grand Prix currently appears capable of developing into a direct fight between Ferrari and Mercedes.
Red Bull should not be underestimated, however, especially after Liam Lawson’s strong long run, while McLaren also remains a significant threat despite looking less impressive in the Friday race simulations.
McLaren has won the previous two rounds, although those results came on circuits with layouts very different from Monza. The characteristics of the Italian track therefore create a substantially different technical challenge.
For Ferrari, the encouraging element is that the SF-26 appears capable of combining strong qualifying pace with competitive long-run performance. That will be particularly important at a circuit where Ferrari has specifically worked to reduce drag and improve efficiency without compromising too much of the car’s performance through the corners.
Italian GP could remain close from start to finish
The available Friday data therefore points towards an extremely open Italian Grand Prix. Ferrari and Mercedes currently appear to have the clearest race-pace advantage, but the tyre compounds, fuel loads, Power Unit settings and exceptionally high track temperatures all make it difficult to establish a definitive hierarchy.
Red Bull’s pace deserves attention, while McLaren cannot be ruled out simply because its long runs were less impressive than expected. If the competitive gaps remain this small when the cars line up for the race, the Italian Grand Prix could deliver a close contest from the opening lap to the chequered flag.
