The 2026 Italian Grand Prix could be far less predictable than expected, with Ferrari, McLaren and Mercedes all arriving at Monza with genuine reasons to believe they can fight for victory. Power unit performance will inevitably play a major role on Formula 1’s fastest circuit, but straight-line speed alone will not decide the outcome.
Mercedes would normally start as the obvious favourite, although leading contender Andrea Kimi Antonelli is set to start from the back of the grid. McLaren can also rely on the powerful Brixworth power unit, but the MCL40 has some characteristics that are less than ideal for Monza. Ferrari, meanwhile, will attempt to maximise the SF-26’s own strengths while waiting to discover the true effectiveness of its engine updates. It creates an unusually open picture as Monza becomes the latest major test of the 2026 Formula 1 season.
Mercedes’ case for victory at the 2026 Italian Grand Prix
Monza represents a particularly promising opportunity for Mercedes to return to winning ways. The W17 not only boasts a highly competitive power unit, but Mercedes has also regularly demonstrated effective energy-management strategies. That could become extremely important in Brianza, where the circuit’s four major full-throttle sections will force teams to make careful decisions over where to deploy electrical energy and where to recover it.
Mercedes has also frequently stood out for its straight-line speed, helped by longer gear ratios and an efficient aerodynamic configuration. For the Italian Grand Prix, the Brackley team will also be able to call upon the low-downforce package first seen at Spa, where it was ultimately considered too extreme for the Belgian circuit. The combination could suit Monza particularly well, even if the W17’s overall development picture remains an important factor after Toto Wolff acknowledged that Mercedes still had untapped potential with its W17 upgrades.
Unfortunately for the Italian crowd, Mercedes has already decided that Andrea Kimi Antonelli will serve his grid penalty for a power unit change at Monza, meaning the Italian will start from the back. It therefore appears difficult for Toto Wolff’s team to challenge for victory with its current leading driver, leaving much of Mercedes’ hopes resting on George Russell.
George Russell’s potential performance at Monza remains harder to assess because of his recurring difficulties in low-grip conditions, which are often characteristic of the Italian circuit. Monza will, however, provide several overtaking opportunities, placing greater emphasis on race pace. That is an area in which the W17 has not particularly excelled over the previous two rounds. Overall, Mercedes still has the tools required to fight for victory, although much will depend on the level reached by its rivals.
Ferrari’s strengths could keep the SF-26 in the Monza fight
On paper, Ferrari’s home race does not appear to be the most favourable opportunity for a victory. The SF-26 has not excelled on the straights, and the issue does not come down solely to the engine. Even so, those limitations did not prevent Charles Leclerc from taking a surprising victory at Silverstone, although that result was helped by Andrea Kimi Antonelli’s retirement.
The circumstances in Britain were different. Ferrari’s high aerodynamic load gave the SF-26 impressive stability and competitiveness through fast corners, while also benefiting its energy-management strategies. There will be less scope to exploit the same qualities at Monza, where Ascari and the Parabolica-Alboreto are effectively the only high-speed changes of direction. The contrast highlights why the characteristics of the SF-26 remain such an important part of Ferrari’s technical picture in 2026.
Ferrari will nevertheless have several cards to play, beginning with its second updated power unit of the season, which is expected to provide a few extra horsepower. The team has been preparing the latest engine specification specifically with Monza in mind, with Ferrari ready to introduce its updated ADUO-2 power unit at the Italian Grand Prix.
There are also several major braking zones at Monza, where drivers need considerable stability under deceleration. This has been an area in which the SF-26 has so far set the benchmark, potentially giving Ferrari an important advantage when attacking the heavy braking zones into the circuit’s chicanes.
Ferrari could finally also make better use of the encouraging race pace already displayed at Zandvoort and Budapest, with Monza offering more realistic opportunities to overtake. At the Dutch Grand Prix, the team’s underlying speed was not enough to produce the expected podium result, with Ferrari’s tyre offset at Zandvoort ultimately failing to deliver the desired outcome.
One crucial factor in Italy will therefore be tyre degradation. Pirelli has selected the softest compounds in its range for Monza, with the C3, C4 and C5 available over the weekend. Ferrari will need to control degradation effectively if it wants to turn the SF-26’s race pace into a serious challenge for victory.
Why McLaren remains a major Italian GP threat
McLaren arrives in Italy on the back of two consecutive victories, further demonstrating the quality of the updated MCL40. High-speed corners are the papaya car’s main strength, something McLaren will try to exploit especially through the Variante Ascari and Parabolica-Alboreto.
The Woking team can also rely on the powerful Mercedes power unit. Its ability to exploit that package has improved significantly since the beginning of the season thanks to new simulation tools that have allowed McLaren to optimise energy management. The team’s latest form has already strengthened its position among Mercedes’ main rivals, with McLaren also planning further development after Lando Norris’ Dutch Grand Prix victory.
McLaren will also bring several new elements to Italy, including the H-Wing, the inverted movable wing commonly known as the Macarena. The team heads to Monza hungry for confirmation and eager to establish whether it can remain in contention for victory at a circuit with very different demands compared with the previous rounds.
It certainly will not be straightforward for the MCL40. Its shorter gear ratios and aerodynamic drag limit its competitiveness on the straights, two characteristics that could become particularly costly around Monza. The McLaren is also not outstanding under braking and will have to prove agile when attacking the kerbs and accelerating away from the chicanes after struggling for traction through slow corners during the previous two events.
No clear favourite as execution becomes decisive at Monza
Taking all three teams into account, no obvious favourite emerges ahead of the 2026 Italian Grand Prix. Mercedes has power-unit efficiency, straight-line speed and a potentially suitable low-downforce package, but Andrea Kimi Antonelli’s grid penalty complicates its challenge. Ferrari has braking stability, promising race pace and an updated power unit, yet the SF-26’s straight-line limitations could be exposed. McLaren arrives with winning momentum and excellent high-speed performance, but its drag, gear ratios and slow-corner traction remain potential weaknesses.
The uncertainty continues the trend towards an increasingly competitive Formula 1 field, where race-weekend execution has once again become central to the final result. Ferrari knows that better than most after its recent missed opportunities, which prompted Fred Vasseur to order a review following the Dutch Grand Prix. At Monza, extracting every advantage from the car, tyres, energy deployment and strategy could ultimately matter just as much as outright power.
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