Italian GP – Strategy analysis: McLaren goes extreme on Mediums, a new theme emerges…
The Italian Grand Prix once again delivered plenty of emotions. Most of the real action took place at the start, while the race itself turned out to be relatively flat in terms of on-track battles. The main duels unfolded in the pit lane. A contact between Carlos Sainz and Oliver Bearman on lap 41 caused a scare on the Red Bull pit wall and for Max Verstappen, but fortunately for the Dutchman, both drivers managed to get going again, bringing only a brief yellow flag period.
However, it was a particularly intense race from the strategic point of view. Many drivers started on the C4 Medium compound and still managed to cover over three-quarters of the race distance without needing to pit. McLaren’s idea of delaying the stop as much as possible, hoping for a Safety Car, kept fans on the edge of their seats. Then came the mistake during Lando Norris’s pit stop and the controversial team radio to Oscar Piastri, asking him to give up position to his teammate. That will certainly provide plenty of talking points in the coming days.
The Italian GP recap
The race ended with victory for Max Verstappen, who finished 19.2 seconds ahead of Lando Norris, followed by Oscar Piastri, Charles Leclerc, George Russell and Lewis Hamilton. Before breaking down the key strategic aspects, let us recap the tyre strategies adopted by the field during the Italian Grand Prix.
As predicted by Pirelli and also anticipated in our own preview earlier in the morning, the most common choice was a one-stop strategy using C4 Mediums and C3 Hards. Among those who opted for the yellow-marked tyres at the start and then switched to the white-walled compound in the final part of the race were race winner Verstappen, as well as Leclerc, Russell, Hamilton, Gabriel Bortoleto and Andrea Kimi Antonelli – all of whom finished in the points. Behind them, Sainz in P11, Bearman, Yuki Tsunoda and Franco Colapinto also tried this approach.
On the Hard-to-Medium strategy we saw Alexander Albon, who secured an excellent seventh place, and Isack Hadjar. The two McLaren drivers were the only ones to go for Medium-to-Soft, while Liam Lawson was the only one to try Soft-to-Hard. Esteban Ocon, Pierre Gasly and Lance Stroll opted for Hard-to-Soft. Retirements came for Fernando Alonso and Nico Hulkenberg, both due to technical problems: Hulkenberg was forced to return to the pits during the formation lap, while Alonso retired with suspension damage after riding the kerb at the exit of Ascari in a way that did not even appear too aggressive.
The Medium surprises, maybe too much. A theme emerges…
The performance of the C4 Medium tyre went beyond expectations. McLaren almost completed the race on it, with Norris running 46 of the 53 laps, and probably even Verstappen could have attempted the same. Max simply preferred to play it safe. Could Pirelli have taken a bigger risk by bringing the C4, C5 and C6 to Monza? Looking at what happened, the answer is clearly yes, but it would have been difficult to predict before the race. Last year only Leclerc, among the top team drivers, managed a one-stop, while the others opted for two because of concerns about graining.
It is not easy for Pirelli to decide on the tyre selection without having access to extensive data. Measurements are always carried out, but without actual running on the track, it becomes tricky to forecast grip levels and degradation based on tyre-surface interaction. Still, since the C4 was the most-used compound and the one that covered the highest number of laps, it is fair to say that even if Pirelli had nominated C4, C5 and C6, the race situation would not have changed much. The C4 would simply have carried a different colour marking. In the chart below you can see the laps completed by each compound.
Verstappen exceeds expectations, but the gap is not real
When it comes to Ferrari, there is not too much to add today. Fourth place was the best Charles Leclerc could aim for, while Lewis Hamilton produced a strong comeback, climbing from P10 on the grid to finish sixth behind teammate Russell. Another key point to analyse is the margin Verstappen managed to open up over the McLarens. As Max himself admitted, the gap is not entirely realistic. Before his pit stop, Verstappen was about five seconds ahead of Norris. Lando had to keep running several extra laps on worn Mediums, hoping for a Safety Car that would allow him to leapfrog the Dutchman. The final gap was the result of McLaren’s strategy gamble, compounded by the pit stop mistake on Norris’s car and the subsequent swap of positions between the two papaya drivers.
Beyond that, special mention should go to Alexander Albon, who climbed from 14th on the grid to seventh, to Gabriel Bortoleto, who finished ahead of Antonelli, and to Isack Hadjar, who, despite starting from the pit lane, managed to score a point in tenth place. In contrast, there was disappointment in the Mercedes garage with Russell’s fifth place and, even more, with Antonelli finishing ninth. Yuki Tsunoda’s poor run continued as well, with another race outside the points in 13th place.
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