Hungarian GP strategy analysis: a less evident error may have cost Ferrari a podium. Red Bull and Ferrari, two mistakes that cost the podium.

It could have been a perfect race for McLaren. Instead, we’re left to decide whether to praise Norris as a saint or criticize him for losing 7 points in the championship battle against Verstappen. It was a great race, and it’s a shame it ended this way. On Sunday, thanks to Lando’s actions, sportsmanship prevailed, but the Papaya team should never have allowed such a situation to arise.

Strategy Recap
Before analyzing the McLaren case in detail, let’s recap the strategies seen at the Hungaroring. Yesterday morning, in agreement with Pirelli, we anticipated predominantly two-stop strategies with extensive use of Medium and Hard tires. The quantity would depend primarily on the availability of sets in each garage. This was due to an expected increase in temperatures, which, although not entirely as predicted, did occur. The track temperature remained around 45-48°C.

With few exceptions, everything went as expected. The prevailing tactic was Medium C4, Hard C3, and Medium C4, implemented by Oscar Piastri, Lando Norris, Charles Leclerc, Max Verstappen, Carlos Sainz, and Sergio Perez (a slight H-M-M variant due to starting from the back).

The other widely used solution was M-H-H, used by Hamilton, Russell (slight H-M-H variant for starting from the back), Ricciardo, Hulkenberg, Bottas, and Zhou.

Aston Martin used all the compounds, doing S-M-H (they didn’t have two sets of Medium and Hard) with Stroll finishing tenth. Albon and Bottas did S-H-H. Tsunoda was the only one to finish the race on a one-stop strategy, Medium-Hard, while Sargeant and Ocon made three stops with M-H-H-S, switching to the C5 with 5-6 laps to go. Despite this move, neither Esteban nor Logan achieved the fastest lap of the race, which was instead set by Russell in 1’20’’305, who, having finished the race in P8, also secured the additional point.

McLaren failed and also a bit ‘cringe’
Pole-sitter Norris didn’t have a flawless start. Oscar Piastri took advantage and took the lead. Lando almost got overtaken by Max Verstappen, and in fact, he did, but Max, having gained the position by going off track, decided to give it back to Norris to avoid a FIA penalty. For two-thirds of the race, Piastri held the lead through brilliant decisions. For the first stop, Oscar had over a 3-second advantage when the team called Norris for a pit stop to switch from Medium to Hard tires. Piastri pitted the next lap to fit the same tires and exited the pits 3.5 seconds ahead of Lando. The gap remained the same, and the McLarens were sure to preserve their positions against Verstappen and Hamilton, who had pitted a lap before Lando.

McLaren completely missed the mark during the second stop. The situation seemed the same but wasn’t. When Norris pitted, he was only two seconds behind Piastri and needed to switch from Hard to Medium tires, which he could warm up immediately after the stop. Hamilton and Leclerc had pitted a few laps earlier, and there was plenty of time to call Oscar first and then Lando. The team would have maintained the top two positions. However, McLaren called Lando on lap 46, and Norris returned to the track in P4, 3.3 seconds behind Carlos Sainz and 4.6 seconds ahead of Hamilton. With the Medium tires, Lando could immediately push. Furthermore, the Woking team didn’t call Oscar immediately but waited an additional lap, and when Piastri pitted for Mediums on lap 48, Norris had enough of a lead (2.7 seconds) to stay ahead of his teammate.

Frankly, we didn’t believe it was an error. Initially, it was thought that the team did it on purpose to favor Norris’s victory. But then the team radios came, and we changed our mind. Honestly, the whole thing was handled somewhat ‘cringe’. Norris was put in a position where he couldn’t act differently. The team exhausted him psychologically, pushing him to the limit. McLaren may have “mistakenly” favored the pass on his teammate, but Lando had clearly shown he deserved the win, both in the second stint by showing better pace than his teammate and in the third by gaining 6 seconds before deciding to comply with the team and allowing Oscar to overtake him.

Piastri achieved his first F1 victory without making errors or mistakes. A great display of strength, especially given his young age (23 years). However, Norris deserves more than a thank you for the honor he gave him. A statue at the entrance of Woking might suffice.

Red Bull and Ferrari, two mistakes that cost the podium
While Red Bull forced Max Verstappen to chase and overtake others by delaying the first stop significantly, then inexplicably going for a two-stop strategy, leading to the driver’s frustration and ultimately ruining his race with contact with Hamilton, Ferrari made a less evident mistake that could still have cost the podium in the Hungarian Grand Prix. Seeing the pace shown in the second stint on Hard tires, constantly faster than Lewis, it is believed that if Ferrari’s strategists had opted for an M-M-H strategy instead of M-H-M (with the white tires used for only 17 laps to maintain contact with Hamilton), perhaps considering Max’s error, we might have seen a different podium.

However, there are many ifs and buts to consider. If the race had gone smoothly as it should have, we probably would have had Max Verstappen in P3, regardless of Ferrari’s choices, which, based on the facts, is fighting to be the third force with Mercedes. Based on Sergio Perez’s recovery and the position Max should have occupied, Red Bull should have been the second force at the Hungarian GP and not the fourth, as indicated by the standings.