“Today is one of those days when I no longer understand anything about racing.” With this sentence, Charles Leclerc summed up the contradictions of a qualifying session unlike any other. A perfect storm prevented what seemed destined to be an all-McLaren front row and opened the door for Scuderia Ferrari, which capitalized on the opportunity—thanks in part to its recent technical upgrades. Now, the race remains a blank page, with unpredictable weather still looming as a major factor.
Track evolution and unpredictability
Ferrari’s pole position did not emerge from any sudden technical superiority of the SF-25 single-seater—although the car was clearly boosted by recent updates—but rather from flawless execution in one of the most unpredictable qualifying sessions seen in recent memory. The strange conditions started in Q1, where the track was unexpectedly slower compared to the final free practice session, despite a drop of over five degrees Celsius in track temperature, which should have improved performance. However, at the Hungaroring, dust and sand settle quickly between sessions, resetting grip levels entirely and making conditions less predictable.
Adding to the challenge, rising winds reduced grip and disrupted the pecking order seen earlier in FP3. Only McLaren managed to remain consistently strong. Ferrari, which had emerged as the second-fastest team in practice, was forced to use a second set of soft tires already in Q1. Over the team radio, both drivers reported worse sensations behind the wheel. The situation deteriorated even further in Q2, when a light rain shower in the first sector further shook up the field. Andrea Kimi Antonelli, who had shown promise using Ferrari’s older rear suspension, struggled with tire slippage and lost four-tenths in the opening three corners—a gap that ultimately cost him a place in Q3, missing out to George Russell.
Lewis Hamilton, too, was eliminated in Q2—by a mere 15 thousandths of a second—despite being just six-tenths slower than Leclerc at that point. The seven-time world champion opted for a rear wing with more downforce than his teammate’s, underlining his ongoing difficulties managing a car that still feels too light at the rear. The result was another head-to-head defeat to Charles Leclerc, on a circuit that should have played to Hamilton’s strengths.
Wind as a decisive factor
Conditions shifted again at the beginning of Q3. Weather telemetry showed a sudden change in all key parameters—highlighting just how sensitive modern ground-effect cars are to environmental variables. Not only did temperature and humidity shift, but the wind rotated by 90 degrees, dramatically altering the aerodynamic load and grip levels in key corners. Andrea Stella, McLaren’s Team Principal, admitted, “We simulated the change in conditions and estimated a lap time increase of four-tenths.” In the end, McLaren’s Q3 lap times were five-tenths slower than their Q2 bests—something Stella attributed to overly cautious driving by both drivers, likely due to the championship implications.
Both Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris admitted their final flying laps felt smoother but were ultimately slower—perhaps too conservative in hindsight.
The big story, however, was that McLaren suffered more than any other team from the wind shift, while Ferrari actually improved by one-tenth from Q2 to Q3. According to Stella, the root cause lies in the aerodynamics of the MCL39. “Looking at the wind direction in certain corners, we identified areas where we lost more time compared to Q2. We recognized a pattern,” he explained. “We can correlate this with our aerodynamic maps, and it’s no surprise that in the corners affected by the wind shift, we paid the highest price.”
Ferrari’s credit
That shift in conditions created a unique opportunity, and Charles Leclerc seized it with the kind of precision and flair that had been missing so far this season. Ironically, Ferrari’s earlier struggles in Q1 and Q2 helped the Monegasque driver. He was forced to begin his Q3 efforts on used soft tires, which led him to attribute the slower lap more to tire wear than to changes in weather conditions. That judgment meant he did not overreact to the wind shift—and as a result, he pushed harder and delivered a near-perfect second flying lap. Meanwhile, both McLaren drivers approached their laps more cautiously and fell short.
Leclerc’s return to form in qualifying is also a testament to the progress of the SF-25. The latest rear suspension update has widened the car’s operating window, allowing for more flexible setup adjustments without compromising ride height control. Previously, the team had to rely on what Charles described as “extreme” setups, which made the car unpredictable and prone to mistakes.
“It made the car very unpredictable and difficult, especially when chasing the final tenth in Q3,” Leclerc explained. “If you went just slightly over the limit, the price was high. Now, you can play more with the limit—and if you overdo it, you don’t lose as much.” It was fitting that Charles claimed pole at what he previously described as his worst track on the calendar. Budapest has long exposed Ferrari’s chronic instability in long corners—but this time, the SF-25 showed signs of overcoming that weakness. It marked a potentially significant turning point in the technical development of the car from Maranello.
An open race ahead
Ferrari now finds itself in the rare position of genuinely challenging for a race win. What gives the team hope is the track position advantage, which is extremely valuable at the Hungaroring, as well as data from Friday’s race simulations, where Ferrari posted the second-best long-run pace—behind only McLaren. For its part, McLaren holds the advantage of having both drivers in the top three, which could give them strategic leverage. However, they must also be cautious not to unfairly favor one driver in the championship fight. Lando Norris, who qualified third, will start from the cleaner side of the grid compared to teammate Oscar Piastri—unless rain causes a rolling start.
Mercedes will remain on standby, ready to capitalize on any opportunity to reach the podium. Both drivers reported renewed confidence with the return of the older rear suspension, including Andrea Kimi Antonelli, who—despite being eliminated early—felt much more comfortable in the car this weekend. “This weekend is a different story. I feel a lot more at ease than before,” said the young Italian.
Aston Martin, with Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll in fifth and sixth, will be aiming for strong points as well. The team is benefiting from a recent performance boost thanks to a new front wing introduced at Spa-Francorchamps and a revised floor debuted at Silverstone.
Also in the mix will be reigning world champion Max Verstappen, who qualified only eighth and appeared dejected after failing to find a working setup for the RB21 at this circuit. “Our biggest problem is that we tried everything and still didn’t find a direction,” he said. Max Verstappen is now hoping for rain to shake things up, while Ferrari would prefer a dry and stable race in order to convert this rare pole position into a much-needed victory in a season that has so far offered very few reasons to celebrate.
Leave a Reply