We always say that Sprint Race weekends can provide a good indication of the strategies we might see in the Sunday race. This time, however, fortunately, that’s not entirely true. The weather conditions on Saturday, with rain arriving just minutes before the start of the Sprint, didn’t allow teams and drivers to test their pace on slick tyres, which will leave everyone heading to the starting grid in a state of deep uncertainty. Especially since rain is expected again tomorrow. Showers are forecast right in the afternoon.
Pirelli’s advice – Miami International Autodrome – 57 laps
Before getting into the details, let’s hear from Mario Isola, Pirelli’s Motorsport Director, who shared his thoughts after Saturday and the advice he gave to the teams: “The Sprint was full of twists, mainly due to the weather. The Intermediate tyres suffered from high wear once the racing line dried out, particularly on the front right. The switch to slicks proved immediately very competitive, so much so that everyone moved to dry tyres, even those who had built a large advantage.”
“This factor could play a major role in the race if rain returns: in that case, drivers will need to manage the Intermediates very carefully. If it stays dry, the limited data gathered only confirms the pre-race predictions in terms of strategy. Despite introducing a tyre compound one step softer than in 2024, a single stop strategy is, on paper, the fastest, with Medium and Hard tyres taking centre stage. Nine out of ten teams (the only exception being Racing Bulls) kept two sets of C3s, not so much to use both in the race, but to have one as a backup in case of safety cars or red flags—scenarios that are anything but unlikely on a track like this,” Isola concluded.
For drivers and engineers, it will be like going on a blind date
Drivers and teams have collected very little data on any type of compound. If it rains, teams can rely on about 10 laps of experience on Intermediates, while if it stays dry, only Mercedes, having completed a full mini race simulation during the sole free practice session, has data on the C4 tyre to base its strategy on.
Still, it’s not too bad. From what was seen during the Sprint, the fact that, when it was time to switch from Intermediates to slicks, teams chose to fit the C4 Mediums for the handful of laps left (around eight), gives a clear indication of the very low confidence in the Soft compound’s performance. However, Lewis Hamilton showed promising pace in the few laps he was able to run freely, which, at least according to the author, makes the C5 an interesting tyre for the race in case, as in the Sprint, there’s a need to switch from Intermediates to slicks.
If instead it doesn’t rain and the track stays fully dry, someone might try to complete the GP with a Medium/Hard one-stop strategy, as George Russell and Kimi Antonelli completed a long run of 18 laps on the C4 during practice. If degradation is more significant, teams might switch to M-H-H (most teams have two sets of Hards), or M-H-M, or even M-H-S.
The C5, considering what Hamilton was able to do, seems like quite an interesting option. A Safety Car late in the race would certainly favour its use. In variable conditions, and with potentially high degradation, the undercut could become a very powerful tool. Overtaking is possible, especially if the conditions change. For that reason, strategies involving two stops seem to be the best option at the moment. The one-stop option also remains very competitive, so there are several viable paths ahead, all technically intriguing. Of course, the decisions engineers must make on the pit wall will heavily depend on the actual weather conditions on track.
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