Carlos Sainz’s victory in Mexico City Grand Prix leaves no room for doubt. The September updates have given wings back to Ferrari, as the Maranello team has been able to keep pace with McLaren in 4 out of 5 races since the Italian Grand Prix at Monza, showing respectable performance even in Singapore. It’s not a show of superiority but an exciting balance between the teams from Woking and Maranello, sparking the constructors’ championship battle. Meanwhile, Red Bull is increasingly relegated to the role of the third force, with Max Verstappen’s title more at risk than it may seem.
Carlos Sainz’s second victory of the 2024 Formula 1 season comes on a track that was not necessarily tough for Ferrari but also not among the best. In recent years, the Reds have always excelled in agility at low speeds and have great traction, which are qualities valuable on the many slow corners of the Mexican circuit. Yet, in the modern era, Ferrari had not won in Mexico City, showing that it took more than just a “city” car to conquer the technical 4.304-kilometre Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez.
The Monza floor, the new Singapore wing, and the work done during the October break have extended the capabilities of the SF-24, with a sharper front end that allows for greater push on the rear, enhancing traction effectiveness. All of this facilitated the team’s efforts, as they did an excellent job preparing for the Mexican trip, with the initial setup barely needing any adjustments over the weekend. The final victory is the combined result of a solid car and an impeccable execution once again.
Despite the result, Ferrari didn’t show a clear pace advantage over McLaren in the race, which remains their direct rival. Lando Norris’s pace in the first stint is hard to judge, as he was held up by Max Verstappen, but he started the second stint on par with the Reds and closed in during the last third of the race. The British driver himself admitted after the checkered flag that he believes McLaren was the fastest at the end of the Mexican Grand Prix. Lapped traffic certainly helped him catch up to Charles Leclerc, but it seemed the MCL38 had a 1-2 tenths advantage over the Italian car toward the end.
Where Carlos Sainz and Ferrari built their success was on Saturday, focusing once again on the performance in the qualifying session, knowing the difficulty of overtaking. The Scuderia reaped the rewards of continuous improvements in tire preparation for one-lap pace, along with flawless driving from the Spanish driver. Meanwhile, Oscar Piastri faltered in Q1, and Lando Norris admitted in interviews that he felt powerless against a Ferrari that is now incisive even on Saturdays.
With four Grands Prix remaining in the 2024 Formula 1 championship, a direct duel emerges that revives the historic rivalry between the teams from Woking and Maranello. Ferrari has a wider operating window than in the summer, offering more setup options thanks in part to the extra downforce provided by the new wing introduced at the end of September. Added to this are the under-the-surface modifications hinted at by Ferrari team principal Frederic Vasseur, potentially regarding the flexibility of the front wing and/or suspension mechanics. There are still updates that the French manager has announced will arrive at the penultimate race in Qatar, an unusual timing that raises questions as to whether this might in fact be a bluff.
McLaren has to digest its second consecutive defeat but with the awareness that its potential to win has never faltered. According to Lando Norris, the floor introduced in Mexico brought only marginal gains, though this impression may be skewed by the low downforce generated in the rarefied air conditions. However, the more important takeaway is that even the latest aerodynamic package of updates does not appear to have compromised the balance or drivability of the MCL38.
Now we head to Brazil, on a high-downforce track with long, medium-speed corners that suggest McLaren will be in top form. These characteristics coincide with the most evident weaknesses Ferrari had during the European season, becoming another test for the progress of the Maranello team. This all takes place over a weekend featuring the Sprint format, with a race traditionally very strategic, making the outcome far from predictable.
The defense of the drivers’ championship remains in Max Verstappen’s and Red Bull’s hands, but their confidence is increasingly shaky. The Dutchman finishing sixth after the penalty, can only be concerned when faced with a race pace nonetheless incomparable to Ferrari and McLaren, trailing over half a second per lap behind Carlos Sainz in the first stint at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez in Mexico City. The mitigating factor is that Mexico was not an easy track for the world champions. The low-grip conditions fully exposed the instability of the RB20, also lacking in the maximum downforce configuration used in Mexico City.
The impression is that the Austin updates have indeed tamed the car somewhat, but the adjustments are insufficient to contend for victory against Ferrari and McLaren. Red Bull is now clearly the third force on the field. Max Verstappen’s driving talent and the grip of new tires in a single lap still allow him to qualify near the front, drawing a parallel with Ferrari in 2023. However, the races in São Paulo, Las Vegas, and Qatar will offer many overtaking opportunities, diminishing the importance of the result in the qualifying sessions. It is also worth pointing out that concerns over reliability also remain. Max Verstappen fitted his fifth engine seven Grands Prix ago in Belgium, and despite rotation with previous units, it seems unlikely he could complete four more weekends without incurring a grid penalty.
The Mexico City weekend therefore confirms Ferrari’s overtaking of Red Bull, as the world champion team is now third in the constructors’ standings. A situation that, only months ago, would have seemed surreal even to imagine. However, this shift in hierarchy was not sudden; it began over a year ago. McLaren’s comeback traces back to the change in concept introduced at the Baku City circuit in Azerbaijan last year, which then became the foundation for further development. Last season, Ferrari undertook a long process of refinement to transform the DNA of its cars, from temperamental and fast in qualifying to stable and consistent in race conditions. Meanwhile, Red Bull pursued a developmental path that has quietly compromised its drivability, leading to the current situation. An uncertainty that surely displeases Max Verstappen but benefits the spectacle of this Formula 1 championship.
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