Formula 1: development ban and related risks for next two years

The FIA has decided: a total ban on developing cars for the new regulatory cycle (2026) of Formula 1 before January 1, 2025. Only from that moment onwards can teams use Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and the wind tunnel for the new generation of cars. This decision was one of many made during the recent World Council meeting held in Baku a few days ago.

The first thing that comes to mind is whether it is technically possible, especially when it comes to computational calculations, in other words, the entire area related to using computers to design the car by simulating variables to achieve performance, to truly enforce such a ban.

Perhaps at the teams’ headquarters, which the FIA has access to, of course, the ban will be respected, but no one forbids us from thinking that some technicians may have workstations at home with suitable software to stay ahead with their work. Because the decision made could be full of drawbacks? We’ll try to explain it in a few points.

F1: The Development Freeze is a Risk
First: the risk of an extended Red Bull dominance for two years. If all teams have to divert the majority of resources, due to the spending cap, to the new regulatory cycle, the 2025 cars will be close relatives of the 2024 ones. If the 2024 cars are conceptually wrong, it will be impossible for Red Bull’s rival teams to bridge the technical gap.

Second (a direct consequence of the first): viewership, attendance at circuits. If we have a similar dominance to that of 2023 for over 40 races, are we really sure that the spectacle will benefit and, consequently, the audience? Obviously not!

“Political” consideration. As you know, there is a conflict between the FIA and FOM/F1, chaired by Domenicali. On one side is the technical and regulatory body, on the other is the financial/economic entity that collects TV rights and distributes the revenue. The conflict is also seen in these details. It is clear that reaching technical convergence would be beneficial to everyone: drivers, teams, F1, and spectators.

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Let us be clear: this is not about saying that the Federation should put rules to favor technical convergence by punishing those who are better. Nor is it the exact opposite: burdening those who have worked less well by preventing them from improving.

Someone might say: what about McLaren then? Yes, but perhaps it is not clear that we are talking about a time frame of two full seasons, and the first will inevitably freeze the second. This is precisely due to eminently political choices. And it is clear that such a choice conflicts, inevitably, with the attempt (often excessive) to sensationalize everything by Liberty Media.

Once before, it was necessary to essentially freeze the cars. The 2021 season. In the midst of the Covid era, and with ground-effect cars on the horizon, it was decided to postpone their introduction by a year, and therefore teams inevitably used the 2020 cars with some improvements.

But then it was a wise choice dictated by a global emergency. Now, however, it is an eminently political choice. Without even a rational explanation. Unless, not a far-fetched hypothesis, it has been decided to impose this ban also because, in fact, the technical regulations for 2026 are still up in the air.

The only fixed points are related to the fact that half of the total power output of the Power Unit (PU) must be electric, with the disappearance of a motor generator. Everything else, including aerodynamics (active?), is still a subject of discussion. Quite a mess, isn’t it?

A final note on the side that shows how the Federation is often a bureaucratic behemoth and, like all hyper-bureaucratic structures, almost immobile. While the world is running. Look at how the FIA World Council is composed and how much weight F1 (which, in our opinion, would need a separate deliberative council) carries. We don’t want to spoil the surprise for you… Don’t be too disappointed.