Ferrari’s return from Formula 1’s summer break has fallen well short of Lewis Hamilton’s optimistic prediction, with the Maranello team scoring only 51 points across Zandvoort, Monza and Madrid. Over the same three weekends, both Kimi Antonelli and Lando Norris individually collected more points than Ferrari’s two drivers combined, while the team’s championship deficit to Mercedes more than doubled.
The numbers underline how quickly Ferrari’s position has deteriorated. Lewis Hamilton’s deficit to the leader of the Drivers’ Championship has grown from 50 to 101 points in just three race weekends, while Ferrari has slipped from 72 to 145 points behind Mercedes in the Constructors’ Championship. McLaren’s recent progress has also created pressure from behind.
Lewis Hamilton’s prediction followed by a difficult Ferrari return
“The second half of the year is my best period and it will be even stronger from our side,” Lewis Hamilton said at the end of July, shortly after the Hungarian Grand Prix.
Ferrari’s performances since the summer break have not reflected that prediction. Instead, the SF-26 has found itself at the centre of growing debate, particularly following the weekends at Zandvoort and Monza.
Since returning from the break, Ferrari has collected 51 points: 31 in the Netherlands, helped by the Sprint, eight at Monza and another 12 in Madrid. It is a modest return for a team that was still dreaming of challenging for the Drivers’ Championship as recently as the Hungarian Grand Prix.
The total was also affected by costly setbacks. Charles Leclerc made an error at the Alboreto corner, while Lewis Hamilton’s Spanish Grand Prix ended because of a brake-by-wire technical problem. Ferrari subsequently identified the cause of Lewis Hamilton’s Madrid brake failure.
Ferrari outscored by Kimi Antonelli and Lando Norris
The comparison with Ferrari’s rivals makes the three-weekend sequence particularly striking. Kimi Antonelli alone scored 73 points over the period, while reigning world champion Lando Norris accumulated 58. Both therefore collected more points individually than Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc managed together for Ferrari.
Even George Russell, despite a period marked by persistent difficulties and growing confusion, has scored exactly as many points as the entire Ferrari team since Zandvoort: 51.
The shift in competitive performance can also be explored through Ferrari’s comparison with its Formula 1 rivals, particularly as Mercedes and McLaren increasingly shape Ferrari’s position in the Constructors’ Championship.
Hamilton’s championship deficit grows from 50 to 101 points
For Lewis Hamilton, the consequences in the Drivers’ Championship have been severe. His deficit to the championship leader stood at 50 points following the Hungarian Grand Prix. Three weekends later, that margin has more than doubled to 101 points.
The deterioration is similarly clear in the Constructors’ Championship. Ferrari left the Hungaroring 72 points behind Mercedes, but after Madrid the gap has reached 145 points. The championship picture has therefore changed significantly in a very short period.
Ferrari can no longer focus solely on catching Mercedes either. McLaren’s improvement means the Maranello team must increasingly pay attention to what is happening behind it, with Ferrari now holding an advantage of only 52 points over the papaya team’s third place.
The changing championship situation and the remaining mathematical possibilities can be assessed through the F1 Championship Points Calculator.
Ferrari upgrades have yet to deliver the expected gains
Making Ferrari’s post-summer break results more concerning is the fact that the team has continued introducing developments to the SF-26. Aerodynamic upgrades arrived in the Netherlands, before Ferrari used the second power-unit development token permitted under the ADUO system at Monza.
So far, those changes have not produced the benefits Ferrari expected. The situation has placed further attention on the direction of the SF-26 project and how much the team should continue investing in its current car, particularly given the potential relevance of that work to the following season. Ferrari has already considered how further SF-26 development could benefit its 2027 Formula 1 car.
Baku presents Ferrari with another difficult test
Ferrari could now consider taking a grid penalty in Baku, while the development initiative is beginning to pass to its rivals. McLaren is preparing to introduce the final part of the upgrade package that first appeared at the Hungaroring, while Mercedes is set to bring significant developments to Sepang.
That places additional importance on Ferrari’s next race in Azerbaijan. The characteristics of the Baku City Circuit will also put the SF-26’s energy management under scrutiny, with Ferrari facing a significant energy-deployment test at Baku.
Three race weekends have been enough to transform Ferrari’s championship outlook. The team returned from the summer break hoping to strengthen its challenge, yet its 51-point haul has been surpassed by Kimi Antonelli and Lando Norris individually, Lewis Hamilton’s deficit has climbed to 101 points and Mercedes has stretched its Constructors’ Championship advantage to 145. With McLaren closing from behind and rival upgrades still to come, Ferrari now needs to reverse that trend quickly.
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