The third Saturday of the season at Suzuka helped complete the picture of Ferrari’s performance in the early part of the year. Once again, Ferrari confirms itself roughly half a second behind Mercedes on a single lap and is now the third-strongest team due to McLaren’s progression. The front row is once again fully Mercedes, with Kimi Antonelli taking advantage of a strong weekend to edge past George Russell in their season-long duel after leading him all weekend. Even on a circuit less power-limited than Melbourne and Shanghai, it is evident that the gap between the W17 and the SF-26 stems almost entirely from a major engine deficit, which translates into a significant energy management advantage. At this point, Ferrari’s excellent aero-chassis package cannot fully compensate for the deficit, especially in Q3, where the final tenths needed to match the top teams are missing. Without the error at Spoon, Leclerc’s lap could have challenged Piastri’s third position, but even a theoretical two-tenth improvement from Q2 would not have matched the step forward shown by McLaren and Mercedes.
Ferrari misses three tenths in Q3, highlighting why F1 needs to evolve
As seen in Australia and China, the gap to direct rivals increased from Q2 to Q3 at Suzuka, costing Ferrari at least one position per driver. In Q1 and Q2, the SF-26 performed as the second-strongest car, closely behind Mercedes and ahead of McLaren overall. However, as in the first two races, Q3 exposes a loss of cornering advantage relative to rivals, and on the straights the Ferraris fail to replicate the already-optimal power delivery seen in Q2. “Once again, in the final session I tried to push a little harder. It worked everywhere, but unfortunately we lost three tenths—one and a half tenths compared to the previous lap—right on the straights of the last sector,” said Charles Leclerc after qualifying.
The early acceleration in the second phase of Spoon forced the Monegasque into a precise correction, costing nearly 5 km/h in traction. Charles Leclerc used an extra 2% of battery due to wheelspin, losing over one and a half tenths on the following straight. Lewis Hamilton experienced a similar issue on the same straight, losing more than two-tenths compared to his best Q2 lap; he explained that it was due to a snap in the first half of the lap. As Charles Leclerc noted, this generation of Power Units no longer rewards Saturday risks: high-speed corners are less impactful, and Suzuka confirmed this. Drivers now need to cut more than half of their electrical power on a single lap to reduce recharge points and push through corners—something currently missing. Beyond the constant and significant pure power deficit from Q2 to Q3, a few tenths of potential improvement in technical, twisty sections are still lost relative to McLaren and Mercedes.
Optimization must come from both the team and the drivers. As with the SF-24, the SF-26 cannot fully extract performance from a new set of tires compared to a used set. Unlike the 2024 car, which struggled to heat tires and lost performance at the start of corners, the SF-26 handles tires well—but overall, it still fails to deliver the last tenths when pushing to the limit. Finding a solution will be more complex because, in the first three races, the issue appears to be inherent to the car. On the driver side, limiting snaps when searching for the (difficult) last tenth is crucial to compensate for the electric deployment quirks. Between Melbourne and Suzuka, the problems have decreased in magnitude, but every Q3 has seen Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton complain about time lost due to suboptimal electric power delivery. Charles Leclerc, along with Verstappen, pays the highest price under the new qualifying format due to extreme limit-seeking. Early in the lap he suffers, and a minor error at Spoon can undo the whole lap.
After qualifying, Frederic Vasseur spoke about a “new championship starting from Miami,” but improving these aspects will be vital to uncover hidden pace on a single lap. In the race, performance gaps are harder to overcome even with perfect execution: based on Friday’s observations, McLaren is unlikely to challenge, and Mercedes will be favored by several tenths. Only a flying start could mix up the order and put the Silver Arrows under pressure. Meanwhile, the internal battle between Antonelli and Russell helps limit the damage in terms of championship points.
In summary, while Fred Vasseur has spoken of a “new championship” starting in Miami, Ferrari must find a way to unlock hidden one-lap performance before then. Based on Friday’s simulations, overturning the race order will be difficult; Mercedes remains the favorite by several tenths. Only a lightning start could shuffle the deck and put the Silver Arrows under pressure. In the meantime, the internal battle between Kimi Antonelli and George Russell is at least limiting the damage in the constructors’ standings.
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