Ferrari’s final gamble: all-in on upcoming upgrades for SF-25. Ferrari struggles after Miami GP with major setup issues and widened performance gaps.

Ferrari’s hopes are tied to the upcoming aerodynamic updates. Those who like numbers will surely have noticed that the infamous 3-tenths-per-lap gap at the Miami International Autodrome in Florida practically tripled. This is not an encouraging sign for the near future: realism must be acknowledged, because in Formula 1, nothing happens by chance. McLaren knows this well, dominating effortlessly.

The Woking team is about to unleash its first updates of the 2025 Formula 1 season. The paddock is well aware that the British squad rarely gets these things wrong. That makes the outlook even grimmer. Ferrari can certainly improve the car, but thinking it can catch up to the best is quite difficult to believe at this stage. Not to mention Mercedes, Red Bull, or even Williams, who also beat the Italian side in Florida. The Prancing Horse is therefore waiting for a miracle.

The situation is critical and, for that very reason, from a broader perspective, perhaps, regretfully, it would be better to once again write off the championship and focus solely on next year. However, considering that the money has already been spent, the Prancing Horse will test several updates on track to see if the 2025 Formula 1 season can still be salvaged.

Another hope lies in the Technical Directive TD18, which, in the collective view, should slow down Mercedes but especially McLaren. In reality, considering the current technical state of the SF-25, the FIA’s measure might not sit well with Ferrari. History does not help either: every single regulatory change in recent years has never been beneficial. On the contrary, they have consistently hindered Ferrari.

The poor performance of the Ferrari SF-25 has a clear cause. Despite the fact that Miami was a challenging track, the aero-mechanical compromise they hoped to find wasn’t even remotely achieved. In fact, Ferrari wasn’t able to build a setup around any of the car’s strengths. The operating window, as we know, is already quite narrow, but in Florida it was even more so. Of course, we are talking about just one race, and many factors may have affected the poor performance.

With only one free practice session available, the time to fine-tune the setup, which is currently very hard to dial in, was entirely insufficient. During the single free practice, the Ferrari engineers and technicians relied solely on driver feedback to develop yet another “extreme” setup, forced to radically alter ride heights and suspension stiffness, both front and rear.

Usually, the Maranello team shows up with a better base setup and a more linear progression. This time, everything was missing. To optimize both fast and slow corners, a working compromise must be found in terms of angles and stiffness on both axles. Trying to cover the entire lap, the Maranello team completely lost the right direction, a fact that was quite evident in the United States round last weekend.

With an ineffective setup, the drivers found themselves in a car that almost never managed to shine in the race. Toto Wolff, for example, clearly explained the main difference with McLaren: at Mercedes, they manage to get the car into the so-called “sweet spot” only for a few laps, while at Woking, they achieve it consistently, lap after lap. Ferrari doesn’t even come close to Mercedes.

Ferrari is therefore ready to go all-in, but will it be enough? Frederic Vasseur spoke about the aerodynamic updates that will arrive in the upcoming races. At this point, they are more than necessary, since despite the Miami Grand Prix going poorly, the Italian team believed it was at least on par with Mercedes. Instead, it ended up fighting Haas and especially the two Williams cars. Clearly, things went wrong in Florida, and the SF-25’s level is presumably higher.

Still, no team stands still, and like the Maranello-based car, the others will also be modified. The first thing that needs to be addressed is verifying the setup creation in the simulator, because missing the mark at the first try can happen, but having data so far from reality, as happened in Florida, is not a good sign, even aside from the short blanket that can only be corrected with new parts.

The team principal of the Italian side has lost some of his credibility in the past month. Nonetheless, he confirms that between Imola and Barcelona the necessary corrections will arrive. More downforce is needed in order to expand the aerodynamic map and have a better ability to balance the car. Moreover, the issue of ride heights must be resolved once and for all and the same goes for tire activation.

— see video above —