The opening weekend in Melbourne has already been extensively analyzed from multiple angles, and there has been no shortage of criticism regarding Ferrari’s disastrous debut in the 2025 Formula 1 World Championship. That said, we are now on the eve of the second Grand Prix of the season, set to take place at the 5.451-kilometre Shanghai International Circuit, a track that is significantly more representative of the design strengths of the various teams. Moreover, favorable weather conditions should ensure clear skies, eliminating the additional variables encountered last weekend in the Australian Grand Prix.
The SF-25 single-seater seen in the qualifying session and the race in Melbourne did not even remotely resemble the one observed during free practice. Normally, such a discrepancy is due to the progress made by rivals, but this was not the case for Ferrari, which appeared, both visually and in the data, to have significantly worsened in qualifying compared to the previous day. The downforce, which had seemed like a strong point on Friday in both single-lap performance and race pace simulation, appeared to vanish, leaving a car that was decidedly inefficient and suffered excessive sliding despite the fact that controlling it was a key performance factor. This was crucial both for the performance in qualifying—where preventing tire overheating during the lap was essential to maximize grip in the third sector—and, of course, for race pace.
Charles Leclerc’s comments ahead of the Chinese Grand Prix, in which he speaks of a major step forward in fast corners compared to the 2024 Formula 1 season, seem to confirm that the SF-25 does indeed have downforce and that it is available. Similarly, his remarks about the platform’s sensitivity to even the slightest variation further support the theory we previously proposed, namely that Ferrari was forced to raise the car’s ride height after Australian free practice due to contingent issues.
The Chinese circuit has been resurfaced with asphalt that is expected to be particularly abrasive on the tires. However, the fact that the track surface is still new should allow the cars to be lowered as needed. The first aspect to verify, therefore, will be whether the aerodynamic downforce that appeared to be potentially usable in Australia will actually be available to Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton this weekend in Shanghai.
The second fundamental aspect is balance, and here the Maranello car must answer the question of whether it is still a chrysalis or already a butterfly. All the cars developed under these regulatory guidelines and with this generation of tires naturally tend toward understeer. Many have compared this year’s Ferrari to the flawed 2023 design, which caused significant difficulties for Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz (and which Lewis Hamilton ultimately crashed into the wall in Spain during the winter). However, there is a fundamental difference: the SF-23, in addition to its incredible aerodynamic instability, had an extremely pronounced natural tendency toward understeer. In some races, Ferrari’s technicians and engineers even reduced the overall downforce level of the rear wing because, even by increasing the angle of the front wing, they could not achieve effective balance without suffering too much at the front end.
The SF-25 single-seater, on the other hand, has shown the ability to be both oversteering and understeering, a characteristic observed during the pre-season testing session at the Bahrain circuit in Sakhir and throughout the Australian weekend. The key question here is how much control Ferrari’s engineers have over this phenomenon. The very possibility of having a car that can be adjusted to oversteer or understeer depending on the needs suggests a fundamentally neutral base behavior, opening the door to a wide range of setup optimizations based on the track and racing conditions. This represents a potentially crucial weapon for Ferrari, especially considering that both Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton prefer a car with a strong front end that aids corner entry.
Of course, the situation would change significantly if the car’s balance variations were caused by external factors such as temperature changes or track rubbering, particularly if these led to unpredictable results. That would be a major issue, as it would make the SF-25 extremely difficult to drive, forcing the drivers to constantly chase an unpredictable car, indicating a particularly narrow operating window.
These will be the first uncertainties to resolve regarding Ferrari this season, in order to understand how much potential can actually be extracted and whether they can at least fight on equal footing with Red Bull and Mercedes. The overall impression, ahead of the weekend, is that McLaren may have the best package at the Shanghai International Circuit as well. However, if the answers to these questions turn out to be positive for the Maranello team, Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton could have the opportunity to at least be the second force on track, challenging Mercedes and Red Bull on equal terms. Since the analyses we will conduct over the weekend will aim to verify these aspects, this article also serves as an introduction to the upcoming work, helping to establish the logical thread for the following in-depth discussions.
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