Ferrari had everything it needed to win the 2026 Mexico City Grand Prix, but the battle between Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc ultimately squandered one of the team’s best opportunities of the season. While Andrea Kimi Antonelli’s World Championship celebrations overshadowed Ferrari’s disappointment, the race provided compelling evidence of the progress made by the upgraded SF-26, whose performance in Mexico suggested that a third victory of the season was within reach.
The latest developments confirmed the improvements first seen in Austin, while Ferrari’s power unit also performed well in Mexico City’s thin air. However, the internal battle between the two drivers disrupted what could have been a winning race, with little opportunity to recover from the mistakes made on a circuit where overtaking was exceptionally difficult.
Ferrari SF-26 showed race-winning potential throughout Mexico GP weekend
Ferrari made an impressive start to the Mexican Grand Prix weekend, showing strong performance from the opening practice sessions. The team arrived with a solid baseline set-up that required only minor adjustments, allowing the drivers to build on the car’s competitiveness rather than spend valuable time searching for the right balance.
Crucially, Ferrari maintained that performance when it mattered most in qualifying. Lewis Hamilton, in particular, had little difficulty bringing the tyres into their ideal operating window, despite the low air density and limited grip making the task even more demanding than usual.
In the race, once Charles Leclerc moved into the lead, the Monegasque had the pace to pull away from Max Verstappen. However, that advantage was partly explained by the clean air ahead of the Ferrari and the superior performance of its soft tyres compared with the medium compound fitted to the Red Bull.
The clearest indication of Ferrari’s underlying potential came during Lewis Hamilton’s final stint after the second standing start. Following another car is always detrimental in Formula 1 because of the aerodynamic disturbance created by dirty air, but the disadvantage was particularly severe in Mexico.
The reduced air density made cooling exceptionally difficult. Running close behind another car could quickly cause the brakes and power unit to overheat, forcing drivers to use extensive lift-and-coast techniques to control temperatures. These conditions also prevented them from fully exploiting the slipstream.
Despite these limitations, Lewis Hamilton managed to follow Max Verstappen closely for an extended period, pointing to the superior underlying race pace of the Ferrari SF-26. The performance can be examined in greater detail through the Formula 1 race pace and lap-time comparison.
Charles Leclerc’s slower pace was not representative of the car’s true potential. The Monegasque was struggling with severe flat-spotting on a front tyre, which had become serious enough to expose the internal carcass dangerously.
Overall, Ferrari appeared to possess everything required to win in Mexico, making the missed opportunity even more frustrating.
Two costly incidents destroyed Ferrari’s Mexico GP victory chances
Ferrari will undoubtedly spend considerable time reviewing the opening stages of the race. Both SF-26 cars emerged from the narrow first chicane in first and second positions, creating an excellent opportunity to control the remainder of the Grand Prix.
However, that advantage lasted only a few metres. At the next braking zone, Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc each attempted to brake later than the other, approaching the corner as though the available grip were comparable to that normally found at sea level.
When the cars rejoined the circuit, Lewis Hamilton lost a position to Max Verstappen, while Charles Leclerc received a five-second penalty but retained the crucial advantage of track position.
Running in clean air, the Ferrari driver did not face the same temperature-management difficulties as those behind him. He therefore had an opportunity to build a sufficient advantage to compensate for the penalty. The incident and its implications are explored in the analysis of Ferrari’s costly opening-lap battle in Mexico.
Charles Leclerc did manage to establish a five-second gap over Max Verstappen, but the advantage then stabilised. As the laps passed, the medium tyres on the Red Bull began to perform better than the soft compound on the Ferrari cars. Meanwhile, with the gap increasing, Max Verstappen was progressively less affected by dirty air.
Ferrari still had an opportunity to defend the lead through the pit-stop sequence. The timing of the stops was influenced by Oscar Piastri’s pit stop, which created clear track space behind the leading group.
Had Charles Leclerc not stopped at that moment, Max Verstappen would have done so anyway, using fresh tyres to gain time and potentially take the lead.
Unfortunately for Ferrari, the Monegasque encountered the lapped Valtteri Bottas at the worst possible point of his in-lap: the winding sequence of corners in the second sector. The encounter cost him valuable tenths of a second.
Ferrari’s subsequent tyre change was also slower than Red Bull’s stop, ultimately sealing Charles Leclerc’s fate. The Monegasque could only watch as Max Verstappen emerged ahead of him in the pit lane.
The combined effect of the pit-stop timing, traffic and execution illustrates how small differences can decide track position, with further comparisons available through the Ferrari pit-stop and strategy statistics.
Why Ferrari could not recover despite strong SF-26 race pace
Once Ferrari lost the lead, there was little the team could do, despite continuing to demonstrate excellent pace.
The second standing start represented its best opportunity to recover. However, Charles Leclerc started from the dirty side of the grid, where rubber debris had accumulated during the earlier part of the race.
Lewis Hamilton consequently moved into second position and benefited from overtaking mode for several laps. Unfortunately, the system proved particularly ineffective in Mexico City’s unusual conditions.
Because the thin air created less aerodynamic resistance, the cars could reach speeds of approximately 360 km/h along the main straight. At those speeds, however, the additional electrical power provided by overtaking mode diminished progressively, disappearing altogether at around 340 km/h.
That limitation significantly reduced the advantage available to a pursuing driver, making overtaking even more challenging despite the additional energy deployment.
Ferrari upgrades deliver encouraging gains in balance, traction and power unit performance
The frustration at Maranello is particularly significant because the SF-26 displayed several important strengths throughout the Mexican weekend.
Ferrari’s power unit adapted well to the thin air, with its smaller turbocharger helping to limit the loss of power at lower engine speeds. This was an important advantage at a circuit where altitude places exceptional demands on engine performance and cooling.
The SF-26 also demonstrated good balance and excellent grip through slower corners. These were precisely the types of corners that had exposed the car’s weaknesses in rear-end traction at Baku and Singapore.
The first encouraging signs had emerged in Austin, but Mexico provided further confirmation that the latest developments had improved the car. The upgrades have also broadened its operating window, making it easier to extract competitive performance across different conditions.
These improvements underline the significance of Ferrari’s latest SF-26 upgrades and their potential longer-term benefits. They also make the missed victory in Mexico all the more painful.
Red Bull capitalises as Max Verstappen delivers decisive performance
Red Bull deserves credit for taking full advantage of Ferrari’s mistakes, with Max Verstappen producing a clinical and opportunistic drive to secure victory.
The RB22 had been competitive throughout the weekend, although it appeared to suffer from some tyre overheating in the third sector.
Red Bull also managed both standing starts effectively, a notable improvement compared with Austin, where the clutch had caused more problems than expected.
The main concern was Max Verstappen’s complaints about unpredictable engine braking. These difficulties could indicate some combustion instability or power unit calibration that was not yet fully optimised.
Mercedes and McLaren show contrasting strengths in Mexico
On the day he was crowned World Champion, Andrea Kimi Antonelli secured another podium for Mercedes, even though the team lacked the performance needed to challenge for victory in Mexico.
Once again, the Italian made a difference through his tyre management. He maintained a surprisingly competitive pace during the opening stint on soft tyres, extending that stint as long as possible to secure a performance advantage for the second part of the race.
However, the red flag ultimately cancelled out the benefit of that strategy.
George Russell, meanwhile, paid the price for an early incident with Isack Hadjar and the resulting penalty. The British driver’s race pace was also affected by problems with electrical power delivery on the straights.
McLaren’s performance was more difficult to assess. Lando Norris spent much of the race trapped in traffic, following other cars closely for numerous laps without showing signs of overheating.
That observation highlighted the effectiveness of the cooling system on the McLaren MCL40, particularly given the extreme demands imposed by Mexico City’s altitude.
With the leading teams still separated by extremely small performance margins, mistakes carry an increasingly high price. Ferrari’s self-inflicted defeat in Mexico demonstrated exactly how damaging they can be, especially on a weekend when the upgraded SF-26 finally had the qualities needed to win.
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