Ferrari SF-25 potential hindered by tire overheating and downforce management | 2025 F1 Japan GP. Ferrari shows potential at Suzuka but continues to struggle with tire overheating and load management..

Japanese GP, FP2: Imperfect Ferrari – two words that sum up the first two free practice sessions on the beautiful Japanese track. The third round of the 2025 championship hasn’t started as expected, as the Red Car, despite last week’s exhaustive simulator work, continues to show the same flaws: a chronic lack of rotation that limits the performance of the Italian cars.

Unexpressed downforce and tire management halt the Red Car
Aerodynamic efficiency is one of the keys to being competitive at Suzuka, a circuit that requires high downforce without compromising effectiveness on the straights, considering there is only one DRS zone. Being a front-limited circuit, a precise front end is essential, especially to tackle the many fast corners without undermining the few slower parts of the track.

Another crucial aspect is thermal management of the tires: the high vertical load and the energy transferred to the tires during the lap can lead to overheating, especially in the final sector of the track. With these key points in mind, let’s analyze the telemetry of Oscar Piastri in the McLaren, who finished the second free practice session in first place, and Lewis Hamilton in the Ferrari, who ended with a gap of 0.430s.

All this to understand the strengths of the two cars and in which of the above-mentioned areas the engineers need to work. From a preliminary analysis of the telemetry, three important data points stand out. Firstly, the downforce generated by the MCL39 is higher than that of the SF-25, showing excellent grip in the fast corners that characterize the Suzuka circuit.

The same goes for the excellent grip derived mainly from the aerodynamic balance of the British car. Unsurprisingly, in nearly all of the 18 corners that make up the circuit, Oscar Piastri achieves higher cornering speeds, up to +6/8 km/h. Secondly, it’s clear that the gap starts from turns 13-14 (Spoon), with about three-tenths lost in just two consecutive corners.

This could be due, at least in part, to excessive tire overheating in the final phase of the lap, as until that point the gap was practically non-existent. Finally, we can see that Ferrari is superior to McLaren in terms of aerodynamic drag: on every straight, the SF-25 reaches top speeds about 2-3 km/h higher.

A more detailed telemetry analysis shows not only that the driving styles of the two drivers are different, but, as mentioned, the characteristics of the cars differ as well. Starting from the most famous “snake” section on the F1 calendar, from turn 2 to turn 7, the Ferrari is not bad at all – it doesn’t lose ground to the MCL39. But we shouldn’t think the car behavior is similar: far from it!

The Red Car has the right downforce, it just needs to be used properly
The key requirement of this section of the track is that the front end must be as precise as possible: if you miss the apex by even a meter, you compromise not just the current corner but also entry into the next, creating a chain reaction that costs precious time. There’s another important aspect to consider in these situations.

Since these bends are taken at speeds ranging from 249 km/h to 205 km/h, it’s vital that during each change of direction, when the car is leaning, the aerodynamic platform remains very stable in both roll and pitch, to prevent air seepage into the floor that would compromise the proper functioning of the ground effect – this is enabled by suspension stiffness and the anti-roll bar.

Indeed, Hamilton’s Ferrari seems capable of generating the correct amount of vertical load to take the fast corners at similar speeds to the McLaren, but it’s an area with room for improvement, likely generating more energy than needed through the tires and consequently losing performance. As already mentioned in the FP1 analysis, and seen in the two previous weekends, the SF-25 lacks rotation.

This is evident from brake usage, with Hamilton touching the brake pedal three times in three consecutive direction changes, in order to load the front end more and point the nose of the car along the correct line. In contrast, Piastri simply plays with the throttle, using engine braking effectively and showing easier handling of the car.

Rear-end instability in the SF-25
Later in the lap, the same pattern repeats at turn 9, but the gaps are very small, with Ferrari even slightly ahead in the stretch from turn 7 to 11. But, as anticipated, the Spoon (13-14) becomes a nightmare for the Red Car: understeer appears here too, with Hamilton forced to brake longer when entering turn 13, resulting in a loss of 6 km/h in speed.

The same story repeats at turn 14, a bend with a smaller radius than the previous one and thus requiring a stronger and more responsive front end that allows the car to get as close as possible to the apex curb while maintaining high speed. Here McLaren is clearly superior not only to the SF-25 but also to Russell’s Mercedes.

It’s possible that the phenomenon is worsened by overheating, as the Italian car also seemed slightly unstable at the rear during cornering. Finally, the last chicane, where Piastri gains another tenth: the MCL39 can attack the curb more aggressively without losing composure, unlike the Modena car, which struggles with agility in the more technical sections due to the suspension stiffness required by the layout.

But it’s certainly not all bad. For qualifying, Ferrari’s engineers will need to work on front-end setup, improving aerodynamic balance without compromising tire wear. The potential to improve and be competitive is there, but finding the right operating window for the car will be essential on such a demanding circuit.

— see video above —