While McLaren seems to be playing the role of a lone hare up front, the chasing pack appears much tighter and capable of springing a few surprises. Beyond the surprise of Racing Bulls — who, although they tend to use more aggressive engine mappings on Fridays, still show good cornering performance — Mercedes and Ferrari are right behind a McLaren that, for now, seems unreachable.
Four tenths might seem like a lot — and in fact, they are, especially considering that if Lando Norris had completed his final run without lifting off due to traffic, the gap could have been even wider. On the other hand, both the Red and the Silver teams are showing a certain degree of optimism, combined with a healthy dose of realism.
George Russell, Charles Leclerc, and Lewis Hamilton have repeated a common refrain: our car can offer more than what was shown today, but McLaren currently seems out of reach — even “on another planet” — if both drivers manage to put together a clean lap. That superiority stems from three key factors at a track like Suzuka: downforce, efficiency, and good tyre management.
From a distance, Ferrari and Mercedes appear to be battling for the final step on the podium — barring major surprises tomorrow. As both George Russell and Charles Leclerc pointed out, the expected wind gusts from the opposite direction compared to today could alter the pecking order, especially in sections requiring strong stability.
Both Ferrari and Mercedes believe they can extract more than they did today, but to do so, they’ll need to work on what was missing — better balance throughout the lap — something the MCL39 currently enjoys thanks to its ability to manage tyre overheating very well.
That strength in slow corners — partly due to the papaya-colored car’s ability to attack the kerbs well during direction changes in the final chicane, with a setup that isn’t overly stiff yet still competitive in slower sections — seems to reflect patterns already seen in Melbourne.
One interesting point from Ferrari reinforces this view: Leclerc and Hamilton actually used different approaches. In what could have been his best lap — had it not been for traffic in the final chicane — the Monegasque driver decided to push in the first sector, in fact setting the best split of the entire session, almost matching George Russell’s time.
Russell also made the first sector his strong point, gaining over half a second on his teammate Andrea Kimi Antonelli in that section. Kimi Antonelli had more trouble getting the tyres up to temperature at the start of the lap, but closed the gap as the lap went on. It’s interesting that both Mercedes and Ferrari have shown partially similar characteristics at the three circuits visited so far this season in terms of their competitiveness in slow vs. fast corners.
At Suzuka, those same patterns are emerging again. In fact, the real differences between the two laps — even though Russell didn’t go for another attempt at the end, preferring instead to focus on high-fuel runs to assess performance with a heavier load on the hard tyre — come down to the details and the ability to be slightly more incisive in medium- and low-speed corners.
Frederic Vasseur admitted that Ferrari currently still suffers in those sections, while at Mercedes, improving in slow corners — especially where strong front-end work is needed — was one of the main goals with the W16.
Interestingly, in his final attempt, Leclerc decided to change his approach, moving closer to that of his teammate — less effective in the first sector, partly due to his continued struggles with full commitment in certain high-speed corners where confidence on turn-in is critical — but more balanced throughout the lap. It’s no coincidence that Hamilton, on the other hand, gained time specifically in the slow sections, having managed to stress the tyres less at the beginning of the lap, though he did lose almost a tenth and a half elsewhere.
In terms of top speeds, the two cars seemed similar, pending Saturday’s engine mappings, but it’s clear that tomorrow’s qualifying session for both teams will hinge on the same elements: on one side, understanding how to manage wind gusts without destabilizing the car, which could increase tyre slip in the first sector and worsen overheating.
On the other, closely tied to the above, figuring out the right approach to keep the tyres alive as long as possible during the lap, to find more grip in the slower sections. Sunday’s race now seems to be leaning toward a one-stop strategy on harder tyres, which don’t show the same “fragility” as the softs when it comes to managing degradation over a lap.
In the first sector, a Ferrari was also seen several times scraping the plank against the bumps created by the resurfacing, and this will also be something to watch closely given what’s happened in recent Grands Prix. For now, Red Bull appears to be more adrift, struggling with the usual Friday issues but hoping to make their typical jump from FP1 to Saturday once the setup is dialed in.
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