The Ferrari SF-23, once again, did not live up to expectations during the race. It might even be better to say that it disappointed, as the expectation of “not winning” was met. Red Bull was too strong, and the Ferrari struggled with a significant fuel load. This sums up the situation. Before delving into the performance analysis and dissecting various technical aspects, let’s talk about the tire sets available to each driver in the 2023 Mexican Grand Prix.
These are essential pieces of information that help us better understand the development of the nineteenth round of the championship campaign. Starting with the fact that Max Verstappen had one more set of white-banded Pirelli tires, while Sergio Perez, considering the strategy in agreement with the Milton Keynes team, decided to “save” four brand-new medium tires during the practice sessions to use during the race.
Source: FUnoanalisitecnica
The table preceding this paragraph shows the various tire compounds available. For the start of the Mexican race, most drivers chose the Medium tire, except for Norris, who, starting from the back, opted for the Soft compound. The goal was to leverage the extra grip offered by the red tires to gain positions during the initial sprint.
Mexican GP 2023/Performance Analysis: 1st Stint: Ferrari SF-23 Low Degradation
The first stint significantly impacted the race for some, including Charles Leclerc and Sergio Perez. The Monegasque driver of the Ferrari found himself with a damaged front wing, which cost his SF-23 between 5 and 10 points of downforce, unbalancing the car. In the first stint and in the laps following the start, Charles managed to keep up with Max Verstappen, staying fairly competitive in terms of lap times with the Dutchman. However, after several laps, the Red Bull driver started to set his own pace to create a safety margin over the Ferrari cars.
Source: FUnoanalisitecnica
The gap gradually widened, as shown in the graphic above. Examining the Dutch driver, it became clear that the degradation on the number 1 car was greater than that on the Ferrari. Around lap 15, Max informed his team that tire temperatures were rising significantly, and he couldn’t do anything to control them. This behavior had already been observed in Friday’s simulations when Max Verstappen mentioned that the tire wear was too high.
The Austrian team was inclined toward a two-stop strategy. The Prancing Horse, on the other hand, sought to extend the stint on Mediums as much as possible to reach the finish line with a single tire change. The degradation of the SF-23 on the yellow-banded Pirelli tire was excellent, among the lowest in the race. This is despite the imbalance on the number 16 car caused by the contact with Sergio Perez. Overall tire consumption, at least in the first stint, was in line with what was seen on Friday.
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At lap 20, Max Verstappen pitted to switch to a set of Hards, earlier than expected. The team warned Max not to push too hard in the first laps to avoid “tearing” the tires and, as a result, shortening their lifespan. Red Bull thus committed to a two-stop strategy, following an M-H-M/S approach, with the option to fit another set of mediums or even try the soft compound towards the end.
Mercedes decided to pit their drivers between laps 24 and 27, also choosing the white-banded tires, embracing the one-stop strategy. Ferrari, meanwhile, stayed out on the track, lapping in the low 1:24s, while Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen, once they had changed tires, were a second per lap faster. With Carlos Sainz, they could have anticipated the tire change, as the Spaniard had suffered an undercut from Lewis Hamilton, who had mounted the Hards earlier, enabling him to reduce the gap that number 55 had on him.
It’s worth mentioning that by using this strategy, Carlos would have had a tire 6 laps fresher, and considering the higher straight-line speed, overtaking would have been more straightforward. Charles Leclerc stopped at lap 32, but if he had waited two more laps, he could have taken advantage of the Safety Car or, even better, the red flag to save time, with a white-banded tire that would have been 12 laps fresher than the three-time F1 world champion’s.
Source: FUnoanalisitecnica
Trying to quantify what has been said, let’s look at the graph summarizing the average lap times of the drivers in the 1st stint. On average, Ferrari performed well, “only” losing 2 tenths per lap to Verstappen, who completed 12 fewer laps. The Mercedes of Hamilton was the third-fastest car on the track, with a gap of 4 tenths to the Red Bull. Daniel Ricciardo and Lando Norris were on the same pace, but the McLaren driver was engaged in a comeback starting from the back.
Mexican GP 2023/Performance Analysis: 2nd/3rd Stint: Hard Tires a Challenge for Ferrari SF-23
In the second part of the race, Ferrari executed its plan with a focus on Hamilton. Verstappen, stopping earlier than the group, made his way with excellent pace on the Hards, catching both Ferraris in a few laps. The second stint lasted only a short time because at lap 34, Magnussen’s crash led to the red flag. Max made the second stop on lap 33, just a few minutes before the race suspension.
This allowed the Milton Keynes team to take advantage of the situation and make the stop, ultimately resulting in a free stop. The Dutchman had more than a 12-second advantage over Charles Leclerc, coming out ahead of the Ferrari driver. After the red flag, the situation is summarized in the following graph. Most drivers made the safe choice by switching to the white-banded Pirelli tires, while some decided to “gamble” on the mediums to put together a very long stint.
Source: FUnoanalisitecnica
The teams had a clear understanding of how the two tire compounds would behave as laps went by, knowing that the Hard tire would have the upper hand over the Medium after a certain number of laps. The crossover point was expected to be around the fifteenth lap of tire life. After the red flag, Lewis Hamilton overtook Charles Leclerc. His superior tire grip allowed for more pace at that specific moment, with the Monegasque unable to catch up with the Briton afterward.
The credit undoubtedly goes to the seven-time champion, who managed the tire compounds, making the yellow tires last with excellent performance for a long time. From there on, the race stabilized, and the positions remained unchanged. Lewis Hamilton even managed to gain some ground on Verstappen, achieving the fastest lap on the last lap of the race.
Source: FUnoanalisitecnica
In quantitative terms, Max Verstappen was the fastest driver from the red flag onwards. The Mercedes of Hamilton was the second-fastest, surpassing Charles Leclerc not only on the track but also in terms of pure pace. The podium reflected what was seen in the latter part of the race. Carlos held on to Charles’ times, who, we recall, had lost part of the endplate on his front wing.
In the following graph, which combines the various forces in play, we see that, on average, the red car was about half a second off the pace of the Red Bull RB19. Given the season’s trajectory, this performance deficit cannot be considered significant. The W14, on the other hand, averaged a pace of about a tenth faster than the Maranello car.
Source: FUnoanalisitecnica
Ferrari performed well on the medium tires but struggled more with the hard tires. The Italian team could have chosen the medium tire even after the red flag, although they would have had to complete 37 laps. They decided not to take the risk, even though they had used the yellow tire for over 30 laps with a full tank of fuel. In all likelihood, the two SF-23s could have made it to the finish line, but there was no guarantee that the result would change. They hoped for a shift in performance between the medium and hard tires toward the middle of the stint, which unfortunately did not materialize.
Source: Alessandro Arcari and Niccoló Arnerich for FUnoanalisitecnica
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