Ferrari is at a critical juncture. Incredibly, it is still competing for the 2024 Formula 1 Constructors’ Championship title, an unexpected situation. The Maranello team began the season with a solid foundation. The initial updates were promising, although they did not fully deliver the estimated gains from the design phase on track. Then, as has been the case for some time, the SF-24’s optimal working range was lost this year. Without this issue, things would undoubtedly be different.
Last week’s Qatar Grand Prix saw the Maranello team claw back 3 points from McLaren across the two races. It could have been far worse had Lando Norris not been penalized in a rather naive manner. That penalty keeps the Italian team’s hopes alive ahead of the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. Recovering 21 points without assistance from the Woking team itself will not be an easy task. A hypothetical Ferrari one-two finish, for instance, would not suffice if both MCL38 cars finish right behind Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz. This highlights how challenging Ferrari’s mission is.
Ferrari team principal Frederic Vasseur is not giving up, nor are the drivers. Believing until the end costs nothing. However, imagining the Maranello squad achieving a one-two finish at the 5.281-kilometre Yas Marina Circuit on Yas Island is difficult, especially considering Ferrari has never won in Abu Dhabi. Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc are nevertheless motivated, ready to give their all and capitalize on any mistakes by McLaren. A team that, had it optimized results over the season, would already have the Constructors’ Trophy secured. This gives Ferrari a sliver of hope, dreaming of another gift from its competitors.
The Abu Dhabi track features a technical and complex layout, characterized by a mix of straights and medium-speed corners that demand a balance between aerodynamic downforce and mechanical traction. The relatively uniform track surface surface does not pose significant challenges in tire management, but the region’s typically high temperatures place thermal stress on the tires, making thermal management crucial, particularly in the final sector. Balancing aerodynamics and mechanics will be essential for tackling the circuit.
The track rewards aerodynamic efficiency and lateral grip but penalizes compromises in rear-end management. Ferrari arrives at a circuit that has historically highlighted the strengths of the Maranello car. Over the past two years, the car has performed consistently, adapting well to a track combining straights, technical corners, and extended stretches. Last year, the SF-23 built its laps mainly on corner exits, gaining from the apex onward. However, it lost ground to Red Bull in corner entry phases.
This year, the SF-24 single-seater has shown a particularly responsive front end, a feature that could allow Ferrari to recover in corner entry, an area where weaknesses emerged in 2023. However, traction, less solid compared to last season, represents a significant challenge. The Maranello team is confident, though, that it can optimize this aspect to achieve a good result. The direct battle with McLaren will be the focal point of the weekend, as the two teams compete for the Constructors’ Championship title. The two cars are expected to “build their lap” in a similar manner on this type of circuit.
With more medium-speed corners compared to the slow ones in the old Formula 1 layout, both teams exhibit complementary characteristics. McLaren has significantly improved its top-speed parameter, namely end of straight speed, compared to the last Formula 1 season. However, Ferrari has shown it can respond, making this comparison intriguing. Both teams will work on specific setups, with Ferrari likely opting for a medium-downforce wing combined with an effective beam wing configuration and a floor capable of generating clean downforce and improving stability.
Managing ride heights will be crucial to handle any bumps along the circuit and avoid compromising performance. Last season, several teams struggled with issues, requesting some bumps to be flattened. Ferrari might confirm the use of its latest updated floor, particularly in the sharp edge area. In Qatar, after some constant-speed tests during the first free practice session, this major component was confirmed on Charles Leclerc’s car. This is also a positive sign for the 2025 Formula 1 car, as it indicates that they are currently finding correlation between simulation environments and the track.
The compromise between aerodynamics and mechanics will be decisive. The historic Maranello team might choose a slightly softer setup to maximize suspension performance on the track’s irregularities and improve cornering grip, while McLaren might opt for stiffer solutions to enhance the efficiency of the floor-diffuser group, a key factor in their effectiveness in medium-speed corners last year. In any case, the car’s overall balance will be a central focus throughout the weekend to optimize performance.
Tire management will be a key factor. It will be essential to maintain optimal rear-end temperatures, especially in the final sector, where minor sliding could push the rear axle out of its ideal operating window. Last year, Ferrari completed the first sector with the rear end below the target temperature and will need to work on improving this to ensure consistent tire management throughout the lap. The strategic choice of tires and their dynamic management will be critical to the final result of the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
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