Ferrari’s most serious mistake at the 2026 Italian Grand Prix may not have been any single incident in qualifying or the race, but its assessment of the SF-26’s true potential. The Maranello team went into Sunday expecting its race pace to bring it closer to George Russell’s Mercedes than qualifying had suggested. From the opening lap, however, both Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton quickly realised that the anticipated improvement was not going to materialise.
Ferrari’s Monza telemetry showed a major straight-line speed deficit
Between qualifying and the race, telemetry analysis was carried out to understand why the two SF-26s had failed to become genuinely competitive through Q1, Q2 and Q3. Leaving aside the mistakes made during Q2, one of the most striking findings was the difference in straight-line speed between George Russell’s Mercedes W17 and the two Ferrari cars.
The SF-26s were losing a substantial amount of time on the straights, with the deficit consistently around 10 km/h and sometimes even greater. That fitted into the wider concerns surrounding the Ferrari SF-26 power unit performance at Monza.
Despite that disadvantage, Charles Leclerc was able to compensate impressively in other areas. The Monegasque driver extracted stronger traction on corner exits and delayed his braking considerably, allowing him to remain within a reasonably competitive margin of George Russell. The final gap was approximately 0.150 seconds.
Ferrari expected its aerodynamic choice to pay off in the race
The initial interpretation was that the straight-line deficit was clearly linked to the power unit and probably also influenced by Ferrari’s failure to place its drivers in a favourable situation during Q2, when both cars came close to elimination. One additional factor, however, proved important: aerodynamic set-up.
This was precisely where Ferrari believed it could recover ground on Sunday. The team suspected Alpine, Mercedes and McLaren had been exceptionally quick in Q3 partly because they had reduced downforce more aggressively. The Scuderia believed that approach could work against those teams in the race once tyre management became more important.
There was therefore genuine optimism inside the Ferrari garage. Nobody expected that aerodynamic difference alone to suddenly put the team in contention for victory, but there was a feeling that the SF-26 would at least be closer to Mercedes in race conditions than it had been in qualifying.
Ferrari’s expectations collapsed from the opening lap
That was where the more serious error emerged. Ferrari believed it would at least be capable of maintaining George Russell’s pace, but both Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton understood almost immediately that this would not be the case.
Being confronted with that reality was a major disappointment, and Charles Leclerc may have been particularly affected by the realisation. His race ended on the second lap after the mistake at Parabolica, while Lewis Hamilton was unable to finish higher than sixth following what was considered an extremely difficult-to-understand strategic choice.
Ferrari made several mistakes across qualifying and the race at Monza, but the deeper concern was believing in a competitive scenario that ultimately did not exist. Ferrari team principal Fred Vasseur’s assessment after the weekend captured that disappointment clearly: “It went worse than we expected.”
Ferrari’s understanding of the SF-26 is becoming the bigger concern
The most troubling conclusion is therefore not simply that individual errors occurred. At this stage of the season, Maranello still appears not to have a completely accurate understanding of its own performance potential. That uncertainty can affect the atmosphere inside the team, expectations surrounding a race weekend and ultimately the drivers themselves.
Ferrari’s wider SF-26 technical development and performance analysis has repeatedly shown how closely power unit performance, aerodynamic choices and execution interact. At Monza, however, the issue went beyond choosing the wrong set-up or making an isolated strategic error.
Misjudging the car’s actual competitive level meant Ferrari approached the race with expectations that were not supported once the cars were running in genuine race conditions. At this point in the 2026 season, failing to understand exactly what the SF-26 can deliver is becoming a more serious problem than any individual mistake made by the team or its drivers during a single weekend.
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