McLaren can use 15 to 20 points more downforce than its rivals, and specific conditions are needed to limit its strength—like the ones Verstappen and Red Bull used a week ago. The Dutchman went from the podium to the back of the pack in just seven days, while Mercedes is making progress. But has Ferrari really improved?
The Bahrain weekend showed how quickly things can change from one session to another, let alone from one year to the next. As these cars reach the end of their development cycle, they continue to hold certain mysteries. McLaren was dominant with Oscar Piastri, and no one could truly challenge his lead without a false start. Despite a race full of ups and downs, Lando Norris managed to get back on the podium with relative ease, while Max Verstappen—who had started alongside him—sank down the order while facing all sorts of issues, including problems during the pit stop. The gap was significant even considering a safety car, and the Australian managed to give the Suzuka winner a 90-second gap on the same track one year later.
It is clear that the RB21 is a car that still depends heavily on Max Verstappen’s abilities. However, on a track where rear-end balance is more protected—unlike Suzuka—even the Dutchman has less room to make a difference. It seems that the designers in Milton Keynes had nailed the main development directions back when Newey was still very involved, when even a heavier Red Bull could perform more consistently than the competition. In this final year of regulations, aerodynamic development is focused more on details: the micro vortices generated in the wind tunnel must be interpreted correctly, while the car cannot be as fast in the tunnel as it is on track—no 60% scale correlation can perfectly predict behavior in high-speed corners. Despite advanced technologies and AI involvement in the development process, a human instinct still makes the difference between winning and losing.
McLaren made no errors, taking their mechanical geometries to the extreme not only to clean airflow but also to use them as actual aerodynamic surfaces. Speaking of development, Andrea Stella had said during the chase for victory: “With these cars, we must choose what not to do before deciding what to change. The floor generates hundreds of vortices that must not be disturbed. It’s not easy, and Red Bull had a six-month advantage.”
An advantage that now seems gone—it’s as if the world has completely flipped in just one year. The Suzuka winners failed their weekend, and so it’s fair to ask: what’s happening to these cars from one Grand Prix to the next? Only McLaren seems stable, but Jeddah could shake things up again. The only small weakness of the MCL39 remains drag. The Mercedes W16 is seen as a possible contender thanks to its high straight-line efficiency and traction. A year ago, it had struggled with the wrong wing setup, but everything could change now, with George Russell enjoying a strong start to the season and Kimi Antonelli being able to grow without harmful pressure.
What can the Ferrari seen in Bahrain actually do?
The car came alive on the medium tyres. During the middle stint, Charles Leclerc was able to run a tenth and a half faster than Oscar Piastri, and the new floor gave something close to one tenth of performance, which would translate to about five points of downforce. That’s the starting point for further understanding and raising the level of the SF-25, as revealed by F1 experts Giuliano Duchessa and Rosario Giuliana in a recent article for autoracer.it. Charles Leclerc delivered a top-class weekend, while Lewis Hamilton managed to respond on Sunday by showing a decent level of consistency.
Back in Maranello, the Ferrari engineers are slowly solving the puzzle. A defective gearbox component was identified and fixed. Loic Serra is pushing the aerodynamicists and wants the SF-25 to be updated across all areas. A major aerodynamic upgrade package has already been planned for later on. In the short term, the team expects to progress in small steps. New rear brake duct designs—internal and not required to be declared—and a new variant of the rear wing profile with lower drag are already fitted to the car. For now, the Maranello team is not focused on the standings—the gap is significant—and the priority is to return to the podium as soon as possible, starting next weekend in Saudi Arabia.
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