Ferrari fails to meet expectations: three tenths can't be recovered with setup alone

Ferrari is disappointed: the SF-25 does not live up to expectations. At the Bahrain International Circuit next weekend, changes to the floor are expected in an attempt to respond to Charles Leclerc, who is urgently calling for developments, as the fourth place secured in the Japan Grand Prix once again revealed the SF-25 car’s limits. The red single-seater is over three-tenths behind McLaren and Red Bull, which should be pointed out that made an undeniable leap in quality by winning with Max Verstappen: this is a gap that cannot be reduced just by gaining a deeper understanding of the car and painstaking setup work.

At the 5.807-kilometre Suzuka Circuit, a very representative track for determining the competitive order after two abnormal circuits such as Albert Park in Melbourne and the Shanghai International Circuit, a deficit Ferrari emerged. Team principal Frederic Vasseur believes that, before making any changes, it would be better to continue working on understanding the car, rather than insisting on new developments.

The driver and team principal have very different views on what the immediate future should look like. Charles Leclerc knows he gave his very best last weekend in Japan and to be able to improve, if there are still championship ambitions for the 2025 Formula 1 season, something must quickly change. Frederic Vasseur, on the other hand, believes the the Maranello team can repeat last year’s path, after a similarly sluggish start. But in 2024, the fundamental issue was that the SF-24 bounced too much at high speeds, where it also lacked performance. This time it is not certain that the solutions will be the same, as the SF-25 car performs well at high speed but struggles in low-speed corners.

In the previous Formula 1 championship, the car had to be raised to avoid porpoising, an endemic issue with ground effect cars, and once a way was found to neutralize the bouncing with increased downforce, the red car began an exciting comeback, resulting in five victories and a second place finish in the Constructors’ Championship, just 14 points behind McLaren after a thrilling battle that lasted until the final lap of the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

With the current car, however, ground clearance must be increased in order to avoid excessive wear on the plank, which cost Lewis Hamilton his disqualification in the Chinese Grand Prix. The sprint race in Shanghai provided clear answers: in the 100 kilometer Sprint race, it is possible to make the red car very glued to the track surface because only forty kilos of fuel are loaded into the tank, and in that configuration, the SF-25 is not only competitive but extremely fast. Just ask Lewis Hamilton for confirmation. The same Ferrari prepared for Sunday’s Grand Prix, which was a winning car the previous day, suddenly becomes the fourth-best car on the grid.

If you don’t want to face problems during the FIA post-race checks, it is essential to raise the car, losing aerodynamic downforce and the ability to transfer the necessary energy to the tires to prevent wear. Therefore, it is not guaranteed that a “cut and paste” approach in some points of the floor will solve the problem as it did with the SF-24 in the 2024 Formula 1 campaign. The issue is much more complicated: one thing is controlling bouncing, and another is finding a way to run lower.

The aerodynamic map of the SF-25 was designed for a height that the car cannot afford on track, risking the “grating” of the plank beyond the famous millimeter allowed by the FIA. After paying the price at the Shanghai International Circuit, the Ferrari technicians and engineers cannot afford a second blow to its prestige, and Charles Leclerc found himself driving a red car that was fairly balanced but simply slow.

Excluding the direct responsibility of the front suspension switched to a pull-rod layout, there is strong doubt that the issue also lies in the layout of project 677, which revolutionized the way weight distribution is achieved according to the regulations. To lower the car to minimum heights, you need extremely stiff suspension, but if the car was designed to work with softer setups, it is easier to scrape along the track, entering a danger zone.

With the SF-25 higher and less capable of generating downforce with the floor, it is necessary to compensate for the loss of aerodynamic load with more resistant profiles, while Red Bull in the Japanese Grand Prix gave Max Verstappen an advantage by unloading the rear mainplane. Ferrari, so far, has used a medium-downforce rear wing, without adjusting the configuration to suit the characteristics of different tracks, as others have done. A single specification was expected to perform well everywhere, optimizing performance.

The issues are therefore coming to light: three-tenths cannot be recovered in a straightforward manner by just working on the setup, changes are necessary as Charles Leclerc has been asking. Because the gap to other top teams is widening, and the chase will be much harder than last year.