The two-day Pirelli test for the development of 2026 tires has concluded in Barcelona. The session featured the 2023 McLaren and the 2024 Ferrari in a special configuration to replicate the expected aerodynamic load under the upcoming regulations, which will be 15% lower than the current one. Comparing the lap times with those from the most recent Spanish Grand Prix qualifying might seem logical, but paradoxically, the over 3-second deficit actually strengthens expectations that performance will be very close between the two generations of cars. Here’s why.
The Comparison
The fastest lap of the session was set by Charles Leclerc, whose 1’14’’971 was 3.2 seconds slower than his best time in the last Spanish Grand Prix qualifying, despite using the same car but with wider tires and significantly higher aerodynamic load. However, a fairer comparison for 2026 should be with the first year of ground-effect regulations, 2022. A direct comparison is impossible, as at the time, Barcelona still used the old circuit layout, including the final chicane.
Over the past three years, lap times have generally improved by 1.5 seconds, with some variations depending on the track, making it possible to approximate the best lap from the latest Pirelli test as being 1.5 to 2 seconds slower than 2022 performance. However, this remains a rough estimate that needs proper context, considering differences in environmental conditions and, most importantly, testing programs. Additionally, as is customary in Barcelona, Pirelli tested the hardest compounds of the future 2026 range—C1, C2, and C3—but it is unclear whether Charles Leclerc’s lap was set on the softest available compound, although that is likely.
The Non-Simulatable Factors
Performance differences between current and future cars will not be uniform across all tracks. High-downforce circuits like Barcelona will penalize the lower-downforce 2026 cars the most, whereas on other tracks, they will be closer to current lap times. Reducing aerodynamic load by 15% is not enough to fully replicate the characteristics of the next-generation F1 cars, which will be significantly faster on the straights, even without considering the dual active aerodynamics at the front and rear. The overall width will decrease from 2 to 1.9 meters, improving aerodynamic efficiency, but more importantly, ground-effect performance will be reduced. Currently, the floor generates excessive downforce on the straights, leading to unnecessary drag. “Today, aerodynamic load comes primarily from the floor. The faster you go, the more downforce you generate, to the point where it paradoxically becomes useless on the straights,” explained Mario Isola.
On top of this, the minimum weight will also be reduced, with the next-generation cars expected to be about 30 kg lighter. The narrower tires used in the latest Pirelli test saved 4-5 kg, along with a few kilograms removed from other parts of the car. However, it is unknown how much Ferrari and McLaren were able to lighten their cars, given the current challenges in even reaching the 798 kg minimum weight. This means additional lap time differences in an estimated comparison with actual 2026 cars.
Overall, the situation does not appear alarming. On the contrary, when properly contextualized, the Barcelona lap times lend credibility to Nikolas Tombazis’ statement from last November: “Regarding lap times, we expect them to be very close to those of this generation of cars.” However, the performance of the new power units remains the biggest unknown in the equation of the new regulations.
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