Ferrari still has eight races left to avoid the risk of a winless season, a scenario that seemed unlikely at the start of 2025. Of these, three events offer the best opportunities for the Scuderia to challenge McLaren, all while keeping in mind the formidable presence of Max Verstappen and Red Bull. Monza highlighted the limitations of the SF-25, which has improved with summer upgrades, but not more than its rivals.
The Monza message
August saw McLaren triumph in Budapest and Zandvoort, two tracks perfectly suited to the strengths of the MCL39. Yet in Hungary, Ferrari flirted with the idea of victory, with Charles Leclerc taking advantage of a strong qualifying performance and clean air in the race to set the pace. After narrowly missing out on the win, Leclerc remarked that it was Ferrari’s best chance to secure a victory before the end of the year.
It’s clear that the SF-25 doesn’t excel in any particular area and cannot be considered a favorite on any track, but that doesn’t mean more opportunities won’t arise. At Monza, McLaren confirmed that the MCL39 loses efficiency and competitiveness in low-downforce configurations—a vulnerability that could reappear in Baku and Las Vegas. Ferrari will aim to be ready for these two races, particularly in Azerbaijan, where Leclerc has a special connection, evidenced by four consecutive pole positions from 2021 to today.
The competition remains fierce
Rivals will be abundant. In addition to the ever-present Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, Max Verstappen will be a major contender. In Baku and Las Vegas, Red Bull will run their low-downforce setup, which has proven extremely effective, securing pole in Silverstone, a Sprint victory at Spa, and the win in Monza. Mercedes could also be a factor in Las Vegas, performing well on tracks with heavy braking and long straights, while thriving in the cool autumn temperatures of Nevada.
The third opportunity
Ferrari will also have a third chance to shine: Singapore, the circuit most similar to Monte Carlo, where the SF-25 already performed well last May. The Asian street circuit features low-speed corners, reducing the time cars spend at high speeds when aerodynamic downforce presses the car to the track. As seen in Monaco, underbody wear is less of a concern in these conditions, allowing teams greater freedom in mechanical suspension setup—particularly important for Ferrari, which has been cautious about plank wear.
However, Singapore is slightly faster flowing than Monaco, with corners in the mid-speed range where McLaren shows maximum advantage over rivals. Therefore, in Singapore, Baku, Las Vegas, and the remaining races, Ferrari’s best chance for victory will be to consistently act as the second-strongest team, ready to capitalize on any issues facing the frontrunners. This means contending with Red Bull, now strengthened by the new floor introduced in Italy and fine-tuning adjustments that appear to be yielding results.
Upgrades approved, but not enough
Ferrari must be opportunistic if it wants to avoid a winless season. Monza showed that upgrades alone were insufficient to fully close the gap to the leaders, especially in qualifying, even on a track theoretically suited to the SF-25. The new rear suspension represents progress, unlike Mercedes’ abandoned upgrade, with data confirming increased downforce from improved ride height control. However, Ferrari’s development pace has not outpaced McLaren. Having started the year with the faster car, McLaren has maintained superiority in the development race, effectively preventing Ferrari from catching up.
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