Ferrari eyes Jeddah breakthrough, tyres and qualifying could trip up McLaren | 2025 F1 Saudi Arabian GP. Ferrari eyes a strong result in Jeddah thanks to its high-speed cornering edge.

Tyre management will be the major theme of the Saudi Arabian weekend, though in a different way from the previous round. The Bahrain Grand Prix was decided by race pace management, while in Jeddah qualifying regains importance, albeit not to the same extent as in Suzuka. The chase is therefore on for McLaren, which appeared vulnerable on a single lap. Ferrari aims to take advantage of its strength in high-speed corners, provided it can master the tricky use of new tyres on Saturday.

Ferrari’s strength point
The Saudi circuit is high-speed and rewards aerodynamic efficiency. With its average qualifying lap speed of 250 km/h—around 35 more than Bahrain—Jeddah is essentially a street version of Silverstone. Many of its high-speed bends are taken at over 200 km/h, aligning perfectly with Ferrari’s strengths. “We’ve made a big step forward in high-speed corners. Low and medium-speed corners are still areas where we need to improve,” said Charles Leclerc less than a month ago.

In Saudi Arabia’s sweeping corners, cars experience up to 5 g of lateral acceleration—an opportunity for Ferrari to capitalise on its qualities. The SF-25 will also be able to exploit the additional downforce of its new floor, which couldn’t be fully appreciated in Bahrain. The smooth asphalt, free from Suzuka’s bumps and irregularities, will also help mitigate the challenges of managing ride height and allow the car to run lower to the ground.

However, Ferrari must still confront its weak spots, notably the banked turns from corners 5 to 9 and the long curve at 13, where both McLaren and Mercedes have shown good stability. The track also features slower-speed sections, particularly the first chicane and final hairpin, requiring strong balance. Above all, a good qualifying performance will be essential in Jeddah—putting the championship leaders on alert.

McLaren’s vulnerability
Pirelli is supplying the C3, C4, and C5 compounds, softer than the harder tyres used in Bahrain and Japan, and also one step softer than those seen at last year’s edition. Accordingly, Pirelli has raised the tyre pressures to 25.5 psi at the front—1.5 more than last year—and 21.5 psi at the rear. The softer compounds bring uncertainty in terms of race degradation and graining, a phenomenon to which McLaren is particularly sensitive.

In 2024, an early Safety Car forced nearly everyone to fit the hardest compound on lap 8, comfortably completing the remaining 42 laps. This year, with softer tyres, some level of management will be needed even if teams still consider a one-stop strategy. With three DRS zones, overtaking is feasible—more so than in Suzuka—but the sequence of sweeping corners makes it difficult to follow another car in dirty air.

This makes qualifying crucial, which limits McLaren’s typical advantage. The MCL39 is well-balanced and rich in downforce, and its strength lies in tyre management over long stints—especially the rear tyres under traction. Jeddah, however, is a front-limited circuit with recurring graining risks. The Woking car also does not give drivers much confidence over a single lap—vital for attacking corners close to the walls. It will be interesting to see how Norris and Piastri gel with the chosen setup, though their confidence will depend heavily on tyre behaviour.

Tyre puzzle
The softer compounds will amplify dynamics seen in past Jeddah qualifying sessions. One is drivers’ greater confidence with the medium rather than the soft, due to less shoulder deformation in corners exceeding 200 km/h. Another challenge is the prep lap: balancing axle temperatures to have tyres ready for the technical first sector while still managing them over all 27 corners. It’s not uncommon to see teams experimenting with both single and double warm-up laps.

The biggest difficulty, however, lies elsewhere. “Jeddah is a very different circuit from Bahrain, also in terms of track surface,” explained Pirelli Chief Engineer Simone Berra in 2024. “With this layout and asphalt, we’ve seen that extracting the potential of the softest compound is very difficult.” Bahrain’s coarse surface enhanced hysteresis and mechanical grip, whereas Jeddah’s ultra-smooth asphalt highlights adhesive grip. The challenge is to extract maximum performance from a soft tyre with high grip on a surface that’s also very grippy.

The soft compound has a significant performance peak, but within a narrow window. In Jeddah, it can actually be easier to use a previously run soft in qualifying. Having already undergone a thermal cycle, the tyre becomes more stable, works across a broader temperature range, and provides more confidence—despite slightly less grip. “We saw many drivers improve on used tyres: once they stabilise and you can use them within a broader window, they perform better,” said Berra during last year’s event.

New factor
Adding to the complexity of the weekend is the lack of data on the C5 compound, which so far has only been raced in Melbourne and remains relatively untested. “Even in Jeddah, we expect that some teams may struggle to unlock its full potential,” noted Berra on the eve of the GP. Pirelli has completely revamped its range for 2025—both structure and compound—which is a significant change for the teams. “We’re still taking the first steps with these compounds; I think we’re all still a bit in the dark,” commented Frederic Vasseur after Bahrain.

The 2025 Pirellis don’t offer higher peak grip or a narrower working window; teams are simply learning to understand them race by race. In Jeddah, they’ll only have one representative free practice session—Friday evening’s FP2—as FP1 and FP3 will take place at sunset, with the track up to 10°C warmer than during qualifying and the race. Overall, though, due to the similarity in corners, asphalt, and tyres, Saudi Arabia serves as a useful comparison to the season opener in Australia.

Mercedes knocking
In Jeddah, Max Verstappen is looking to close the gap. The Dutchman hopes for a more balanced RB21 through Saudi Arabia’s high-speed corners than in Sakhir’s tight hairpins, also banking on a low-degradation race to hide some of Red Bull’s tyre weaknesses. Solving braking feel will also be critical for Red Bull on a track where six of the eight braking zones are high-intensity. But the biggest unknown may be Mercedes: solid and consistent in all conditions, and in 2024 especially strong on front-limited tracks. At Brackley, there’s hope that McLaren’s qualifying struggles could open the door to a first standout result of the season for the Silver Arrows.