The European season of Formula 1 will begin at the 4.909-kilometre Autodromo Internazionale Enzo e Dino Ferrari, Ferrari’s home circuit. The first quarter of the 2025 F1 championship is now behind us, dominated far and wide by the impressive McLaren, which managed to win five out of six races. What is concerning is the extent of the technical advantage the MCL39 single-seater has shown over its closest rivals.
A gap which, according to George Russell, cannot be closed with any kind of upgrade by Mercedes, Red Bull or Ferrari. The Emilia Romagna Grand Prix weekend will be the first round in which the top teams will debut their first aerodynamic updates on their respective cars. In the third race after Monte Carlo, at the Circuit de Catalunya-Barcelona in Spain, the much-discussed technical directive TD018, regarding the deflection of front wings, will come into effect.
The supremacy of the papaya-colored cars is giving rise to subliminal narratives based solely on hope. In light of what we saw last season, many expected the competitive order to be more balanced. Instead, the cars designed by the team led by former Ferrari race engineer Andrea Stella have unfortunately crushed the competition. Their rivals are left with nothing but hope.
The most overused hope is based on the trend of last Formula 1 season. At this point in the championship, exactly twelve months ago, Red Bull held a position of technological dominance comparable to that of the MCL39. In last year’s edition of the Imola Grand Prix, the technological handover between the Milton Keynes and Woking cars occurred, even though Max Verstappen managed to win a fiercely contested race in Italy.
Could McLaren’s and even Ferrari’s remarkable recovery last season inspire the current rivals of the historic English team, or is this a baseless parallel? Rational thinking can only lead to the second option. Red Bull’s decline twelve months ago was the result of two factors. By Adrian Newey’s own admission, the RB20 single-seater was an overly conservative project. The brilliant British designer admitted he feared the rivals’ comeback. Secondly, the storm triggered by the internal investigation into Christian Horner seriously destabilized the team at all levels. Meanwhile, McLaren has continued its virtuous path, which has taken it in just two years from the back of the grid to the top of the premier class.
In short, there is no reason to believe that the papaya cars could suddenly be caught by their rivals. Unfortunately, hope clashes with Ferrari’s desire to climb back up. Without a doubt, the Prancing Horse can and must improve significantly, but thinking it could challenge the reigning world champions’ leadership is sadly completely unrealistic.
Another theory, in our view incorrect, is that the introduction of the technical directive on front wing flexibility could erode part of the MCL39’s performance advantage. A remote possibility, considering the fact that all teams have been exploiting wing flexibility for years to gain a drag advantage based on the speeds of the various cars.
In essence, if there is an effect, it will have roughly the same impact on all cars. The last hope for those breathlessly chasing the cars of Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris can only be the updates. However, Mercedes driver George Russell does not seem too optimistic about this, as the British driver stated that there is no update which can close this gap unless the FIA steps in. The same reasoning applies to the technical directive.
All teams will continue to develop their respective technical projects, and if McLaren continues on its current path, who can threaten them? For Ferrari, the situation is even more complicated. The Prancing Horse’s car is plagued by design flaws that cannot be completely erased through fixes. The group led by technical director Loïc Serra is finalizing a new version of the SF-25 car.
We are referring to what could truly be called a “B” version, compared to the car we have seen so far in the start of the 2025 Formula 1 championship. The SF-25 “B” could be the only technical alternative to McLaren, as it will be a thoroughly revised project. However, considering its debut will come deep into the season, at the Circuit de Catalunya in Montmeló, the enormous effort by the men from Maranello could unfortunately end up being wasted in 2025.
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